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wxwatcher91
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#221 Postby wxwatcher91 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:44 pm

Image

000
WHXX01 KWBC 211833
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050721 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050721 1800 050722 0600 050722 1800 050723 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.0N 75.0W 25.8N 76.3W 26.5N 77.3W 26.9N 78.0W
BAMM 25.0N 75.0W 26.0N 76.5W 27.1N 77.4W 28.0N 77.9W
A98E 25.0N 75.0W 26.7N 76.6W 28.5N 77.4W 30.2N 77.1W
LBAR 25.0N 75.0W 26.2N 76.3W 27.4N 77.2W 28.4N 77.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 45KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050723 1800 050724 1800 050725 1800 050726 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.1N 78.7W 27.1N 81.0W 27.5N 84.6W 28.5N 87.6W
BAMM 28.7N 78.0W 28.9N 78.9W 29.2N 81.0W 30.0N 83.3W
A98E 31.5N 75.8W 33.2N 73.7W 33.3N 72.0W 31.2N 69.2W
LBAR 29.1N 77.6W 30.5N 76.4W 32.4N 74.8W 34.0N 73.2W
SHIP 48KTS 52KTS 53KTS 54KTS
DSHP 48KTS 52KTS 53KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.0N LONCUR = 75.0W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 73.3W DIRM12 = 319DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 21.5N LONM24 = 71.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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drezee
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#222 Postby drezee » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:45 pm

Hurricane by tomorrow afternoon...write it down
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#223 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:47 pm

Franklin is here IMO.
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#224 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:48 pm

I agree brent
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#225 Postby Lowpressure » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:48 pm

If so, how soon do we see watches and warnings for Florida, obviously the Bahamas would be instantly.
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#226 Postby tracyswfla » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:49 pm

Brent wrote:Franklin is here IMO.


Here comes Franklin -to the tune of the noggin carton!
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#227 Postby sweetpea » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:49 pm

How accurate if the LBAR-that has it going right over me. Never mind I just updated the graphic.
Last edited by sweetpea on Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#228 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:50 pm

Brent, if he's not, he will be Franklin shortly. That system is winding up
very fast!!
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#229 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:50 pm

Lowpressure wrote:If so, how soon do we see watches and warnings for Florida, obviously the Bahamas would be instantly.
depends on the future track. Maybe never. These things are fickle. The globals are what I am waiting for.
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#230 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:50 pm

Looks like a TS on IR as well, Franklin is already here I'd bet $50 on that.
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#231 Postby Lowpressure » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:52 pm

Rainband wrote:
Lowpressure wrote:If so, how soon do we see watches and warnings for Florida, obviously the Bahamas would be instantly.
depends on the future track. Maybe never. These things are fickle. The globals are what I am waiting for.


Does recon fix first then wait for models to determine the wathes or warnings, or does proximity matter at all?
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#232 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:53 pm

I can't believe we may already have Franklin and it's ONLY July 21st 2005!!!!!!!!!!!!! Man that was quick huh?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#233 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:55 pm

I must backtrack on a post I made earlier about it heading NNW now. I believe that was just the LLC become better defined and now it seems to be resuming a WNW track. Can't wait to see what NHC says once the hurricane hunters get in there.
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#234 Postby BayouVenteux » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:56 pm

Brent wrote:Franklin is here IMO.


Yep. Maybe time for some Atlantic waters to get shaken and stirred...drop those flaming SSTs a down a notch...BAM!
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Andrew '92, Katrina '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Ida '21...and countless other lesser landfalling storms whose names have been eclipsed by "The Big Ones".
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#235 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:59 pm

Lowpressure wrote:If so, how soon do we see watches and warnings for Florida, obviously the Bahamas would be instantly.
im guessing about the same time warnings go out for the bahama's.............. :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#236 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:59 pm

Lowpressure wrote:If so, how soon do we see watches and warnings for Florida, obviously the Bahamas would be instantly.
im guessing about the same time warnings go out for the bahama's.............. :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#237 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:05 pm

we'll see warnings for the NW Bahamas

there are not any idnications that this will hit Florida right now. It will come close, that it will. But a landfall is not likely based upon the data and model runs
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#238 Postby fci » Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:07 pm

Yeah, I think that they will skip the TD #6 and just name the storm at 5:00 PM.
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#239 Postby dgparent » Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:07 pm

Derek where do you think this will make landfall or will it ?
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#240 Postby micktooth » Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:09 pm

Looks like we have Franklin. My daughter keeps insisting that it doesn't look like a turlte though. :lol:
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