Franklin Advisories

eye of the storm · #21 Postby **eye of the storm** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Advisory soon.

Just pposted that in the recon thread. You must have beat me to it :wink:

#22 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:13 pm

That track REEKS of the trough to the north outrunning TD6, and then
the ridge builds in and moves TD6 back WSW/W

x-y-no · #23 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:13 pm

He has it doing a loop in the long range ...

jrod · #24 Postby **jrod** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:13 pm

It may not be as strong as it was a few hours ago judging by the cloud tops. It looks like someone took out an eraser on the SW quadrant and all the cloud tops have cooled off. I think it will flare up again soon and when that happens it will be Franklin IMHO.

eye of the storm · #25 Postby **eye of the storm** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:13 pm

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE SIXTH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ELEUTHERA...NEW PROVIDENCE...BERRY
ISLANDS...ABACOS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT
125 MILES... 205 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.3 N... 75.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
NNNN

#26 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:14 pm

I think we need some of what they're drinking/smoking/sniffing! LOL

My mom says, they should caption that forecast "We're clueless right now, folks"

BonesXL · #27 Postby **BonesXL** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:14 pm

I love that track...my tax payer money at work

gkrangers · #28 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:14 pm

733
WTNT31 KNHC 212112
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE SIXTH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ELEUTHERA...NEW PROVIDENCE...BERRY
ISLANDS...ABACOS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT
125 MILES... 205 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.3 N... 75.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

Opal storm · #29 Postby **Opal storm** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:14 pm

That is a goofy track,wasn't expecting that. :roll:

I guess their expecting it to hang around in the same area for some time before ever going anywhere.

PTrackerLA · #30 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:14 pm

Let's all take a moment and get to know a storm that will be causing headaches over an initially assumed to be quiet weekend :roll:

.

Amanzi · #31 Postby **Amanzi** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:14 pm

Very odd looking track that :eek:

#32 Postby **Andrew92** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:14 pm

It's not a cone of uncertainty....it's a BLOB of uncertainty!

-Andrew92

jrod · #33 Postby **jrod** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:15 pm

1009mb pressure is to high to be a tropical storm besides.

SouthFLTropics · #34 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:15 pm

I'm having Jeanne flashbacks looking at that forecast map!!!! :grr:

gkrangers · #35 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:15 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:I think we need some of what they're drinking/smoking/sniffing! LOL

My mom says, they should caption that forecast "We're clueless right now, folks"

They don't just guess. There is a reason for it. The reasoning is likely a trough will drop into the northeast and draw TD6 north, then the bermuda high will build stronger westward, shunting TD6 to the west, perhaps into the Florida Peninsula.

#36 Postby **Lowpressure** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:15 pm

Andrew92 wrote:It's not a cone of uncertainty....it's a BLOB of uncertainty!

-Andrew92

Nice summary. Too funny.

x-y-no · #37 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:16 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:I think we need some of what they're drinking/smoking/sniffing! LOL

My mom says, they should caption that forecast "We're clueless right now, folks"

Well now ... remember Jeanne

Loops happen.

jdray · #38 Postby **jdray** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:16 pm

And Florida is officially in the Circle of Uncertainty!!

:rofl:

air360 · #39 Postby **air360** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:16 pm

I think they, by accident, posted the graph of their accuracy after their game of darts this afternoon at the NHC

Amanzi · #40 Postby **Amanzi** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:16 pm

Andrew92 wrote:It's not a cone of uncertainty....it's a BLOB of uncertainty!

-Andrew92

Emphasis being on the uncertainty part with that!!! Dunno where it's going so pick a compass point why dont ya.. :lol:

Franklin Advisories

Re: TD#6=First Advisorie Posted

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