Franklin Advisories

#41 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:17 pm

gkrangers wrote:
Canelaw99 wrote:I think we need some of what they're drinking/smoking/sniffing! LOL

My mom says, they should caption that forecast "We're clueless right now, folks"
They don't just guess. There is a reason for it. The reasoning is likely a trough will drop into the northeast and draw TD6 north, then the bermuda high will build stronger westward, shunting TD6 to the west, perhaps into the Florida Peninsula.

I know the reasonings behind it, I was just adding a trifle bit of humor to the postings :wink:

#42 Postby **drezee** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:18 pm

looper

Rainband · #43 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:18 pm

speechless

dwg71 · #44 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:18 pm

Predicting a loop, wow..

#45 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:18 pm

"Ladies and Gentlemen, the 2005 tropical weather season is brought to you by Starbucks. When you've been up for 48 hours and need to see that latest wobble of the latest tropical season ... and your eyes are just about closed ... think Starbucks coffee!"

#46 Postby **LSU2001** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:19 pm

can anyone say BETSY or JEANNE it looks like we will be seeing a loop de loop.
TIM

#47 Postby **Cookiely** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:19 pm

Can someone explain why loopy lou has an eye that isn't an eye? Click on the thumbnail to enlarge.

Thanks.

clfenwi · #48 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:20 pm

jrod wrote:1009mb pressure is to high to be a tropical storm besides.

1. It is winds that matter not pressure.

2. They have not flown through the given center, (though they are on that path att), so that is truly an estimated pressure. (umm, I guess they did as a vortex message just went out hmm... pressure derived from 850 millibars, valid enough)

3. They just found 42 knot flight level winds, which would suggest a TS.

Website · #49 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:20 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Let's all take a moment and get to know a storm that will be causing headaches over an initially assumed to be quiet weekend .

LOL... I'm getting invisions of Kyle here(remember that one?).

Looks like I will spend my birthday watching a system dawdle around. :lol:

#50 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:20 pm

Portastorm wrote:"Ladies and Gentlemen, the 2005 tropical weather season is brought to you by Starbucks. When you've been up for 48 hours and need to see that latest wobble of the latest tropical season ... and your eyes are just about closed ... think Starbucks coffee!"

Nice! Maybe they can get the storms to stay away if they are sponsoring. Does that mean a Hurricane Starbucks, too?

By the way, this gives the Atlantic the lead again. 6-5

Website · #51 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:21 pm

Cookiely wrote:Can someone explain why loopy lou has an eye that isn't an eye?

Thanks.

No eyewall.

Must have an eyewall around half of it at least to be a true eye.

#52 Postby **micktooth** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:22 pm

That's what happens when "Franklin" forecasts Franklin. I guess it's time to start evacuation plans for New Orleans again! :yesno:

yzerfan · #53 Postby **yzerfan** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:23 pm

I'm getting a bit of a Kyle vibe as well- the storm that just kind of wandered that part of the Atlantic for a couple weeks to the point where the NHC forecasters were getting quite silly about it.

Website · #54 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:25 pm

micktooth wrote:That's what happens when "Franklin" forecasts Franklin. I guess it's time to start evacuation plans for New Orleans again!

Actually... Stewart wrote the Public and Marine Advisory.

jrod · #55 Postby **jrod** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:27 pm

clfenwi wrote:
jrod wrote:1009mb pressure is to high to be a tropical storm besides.

1. It is winds that matter not pressure.

2. They have not flown through the given center, (though they are on that path att), so that is truly an estimated pressure. (umm, I guess they did as a vortex message just went out hmm... pressure derived from 850 millibars, valid enough)

3. They just found 42 knot flight level winds, which would suggest a TS.

42-8.4(20%)=33.6knots, just under TS strength.

The Pressure Gradient is the driving force behind the winds. The greater the pressure difference the greater the winds. 1009 is very high for a tropical system, but this one is in an area of higher than average pressure so that number is OK.

clfenwi · #56 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:31 pm

jrod wrote:
clfenwi wrote:
jrod wrote:1009mb pressure is to high to be a tropical storm besides.

1. It is winds that matter not pressure.

2. They have not flown through the given center, (though they are on that path att), so that is truly an estimated pressure. (umm, I guess they did as a vortex message just went out hmm... pressure derived from 850 millibars, valid enough)

3. They just found 42 knot flight level winds, which would suggest a TS.

42-8.4(20%)=33.6knots, just under TS strength.

The Pressure Gradient is the driving force behind the winds. The greater the pressure difference the greater the winds. 1009 is very high for a tropical system, but this one is in an area of higher than average pressure so that number is OK.

48 knots now at flight level...reduces to 38 knots at the surface, that is a TS...

And yes, I understand the concept of Pressure Gradient Force and all...

Rainband · #57 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:32 pm

micktooth wrote:That's what happens when "Franklin" forecasts Franklin. I guess it's time to start evacuation plans for New Orleans again!

it hasn't even hit florida yet and your talking about NO. :lol:

... sigh

#58 Postby **mvtrucking** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:33 pm

Tropical Storm Edouard in 2002 did a loop then shot west:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prelims/2002edouard1.gif

JTD · #59 Postby **JTD** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:33 pm

That track is beyond words and hillarious.

Oh and there's a typo. Advisorie should be advisory and advisories would be the plural.

No big deal, seriously, but it just stood out at me.

jkt21787 · #60 Postby **jkt21787** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:38 pm

000
WTNT41 KNHC 212134
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND HAVE FOUND WINDS THAT SUPPORT AT
LEAST A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
INITIATED ON TD-6. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT NEAR THE
CENTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THIS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE DAY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY...INCLUDING THE RESTRICTED SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11...BASED ON THE PAST 3 HOURS OF
SATELLITE POSITIONS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.
THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE SURFACE TO 850 MB CIRCULATION NORTHWARD
AND THEN RECURVE IT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL/500
MB CIRCULATION WILL MOVE INTO THE RIDGE AXIS AND STALL IN ABOUT 48
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION AND
ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE WEST. AFTER THAT...SOME OF
THE MODELS MEANDER THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHWARD...WHILE THE
GFS AND GFDL MODELS TAKE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD FLORIDA. THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS ACTUALLY TAKE THE
DEPRESSION SLOWLY WESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH TYPICALLY
SUGGESTS SLOW MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS AND THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE SLOWLY EASTWARD
AND MAKING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP WELL EAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST.

THE WATER AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE WARM...AROUND 29C...AND
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST REMAIN LOW WITH A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS. NOTE...THE AIRCRAFT HAS
JUST REPORTED AT 2114Z FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 48 KT...WHICH WOULD
NORMALLY SUPPORT UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND WE WOULD PREFER TO SEE
DEEP CONVECTION PERSIST BEFORE UPGRADING THIS SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL
STORM.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 25.3N 75.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 26.3N 76.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 28.5N 77.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 29.0N 77.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 28.5N 76.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 28.0N 76.5W 60 KT

$$

Franklin Advisories

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