Accuweather track

[Ivanhater]

accuweathers forecast track has it going out to sea, wonder what they see different from NHC

[wxwatcher91]

they are probably following a different model... the models are wacky

[Derek Ortt]

they are following ALL of the guidance

[HURAKAN]

Here is the problem I see:

NHC: It seems that the cold front won't be strong enough to take the storm out to sea, thereafter, it will meander in a weak environment.

ACCU: The cold front will be strong enought to take the storm out to sea, thereafter, the system shouldn't be a land problem but a marine hazard.

[curtinnc]

Hey Derek, then what is the TPC/NHC up to? They working on just the "choice" models that they tend towards?

[Steve]

>>ACCU: The cold front will be strong enought to take the storm out to sea, thereafter, the system shouldn't be a land problem but a marine hazard.

Obvoiusly Bastardi is rogue to the company again (or at least was this morning). Unless he put out a column update since he cut his tropical video, he has it potentially getting stuck but considers the entire forecast of both systems problematic.

Steve

[TS Zack]

All Hurricane Models have joined in pulling it back West except for the LBAR... Derek, what models are you looking at?

Yea, all the Globals take it out to see but not the Hurricane Models.

[Derek Ortt]

the hurricane models are absolutely useless as this is not a barotropic set-up. There is strong shear over the system.

If there's a horizontal temp gradient away from the cyclone, which can easily be detected as that is what causes the shear due to the thermal wind equation, the barotropic models become a pile of dung to say the least

[Steve]

I agree with you completely. However, the Globals IMHO are complete garbage at this point too. We'll know in 48 hours which sets had a better handle this time around.

Steve

[deltadog03]

and to answer the question they are bias to the GFS and GFDL

[jasons2k]

I believe JB's update said that he expects it to eventually move NW and impact the Carolinas.

He also expects SW Carib to essentailly follow Emily's path, threatening S. TX/N. Mexico with the caveat nothing can be set until a center forms.

[perk]

Well Derek having said all that what do you think Franklin will do.

[Wthrman13]

the hurricane models are absolutely useless as this is not a barotropic set-up. There is strong shear over the system.

If there's a horizontal temp gradient away from the cyclone, which can easily be detected as that is what causes the shear due to the thermal wind equation, the barotropic models become a pile of dung to say the least

Which barotropic models are you referring to? The only barotropic model that I know of that is run operationally is the LBAR. The BAM models aren't really barotropic, but use vertically averaged horizontal winds from the GFS fields to calculate the storm trajectory, plus the beta effect.

[Stormcenter]

they are following ALL of the guidance

Derek it sounds like you are not to happy with NHC's forecast track. You know sometimes you gotta go with instincts/past experience instead of the model guidance. These guys have been doing this for many many years they know what they are doing, trust them.

[southerngale]

the hurricane models are absolutely useless as this is not a barotropic set-up. There is strong shear over the system.

If there's a horizontal temp gradient away from the cyclone, which can easily be detected as that is what causes the shear due to the thermal wind equation, the barotropic models become a pile of dung to say the least

Strong shear? Someone just said a little while ago that there was absolutely ZERO shear over the system. It can't be both.

[Brent]

Please show me this "shear".

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not trusting this loop at all.

The other models, BAM Suite, really only work in a barotropic environment. The mean steering flow is most accurate in a barotropic environment. Once we get baroclinic instability, that method doesn't work. Found that out in a research project earlier in the year

[Derek Ortt]

the shear is from the anti-cyclone. Very hard not to notice

[ericinmia]

Shear...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shrZ.GIF

Tendency...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shtZ.GIF

-Eric

[air360]

I believe JB's update said that he expects it to eventually move NW and impact the Carolinas.

whoa thats a new one...all ive heard so far was FL or fish...lol....on what basis does he see that happening ? anyone else have ability to see what JB says on this system..im not able to see his updates...