JB was saying earlier this morning that the ridge and storm setup over in the pacific is related to the setup in the atlantic. Through teleconetics...
He said that the storm in the pacific is going to head nw-n into japan... and that he expects the same ridge and scenario to build up...
To that degree... sorry i'm tired so its no that in depth..
-Eric
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>>whoa thats a new one...all ive heard so far was FL or fish...lol....on what basis does he see that happening ? anyone else have ability to see what JB says on this system..im not able to see his updates...
The video is still up on Yahoo. He didn't really say the Carolinas. He just thinks that they're going to get something serious this year. I got the feeling that he doesn't really know what's going to happen. He called for a potential stall, mentioned the t.s. in the WPAC creeping north to Japan/teleconnection with Outer Banks and the possibility it could come back even southwest with time. He said both systems were problematic (for potential development and forecasters). He swears he's not sleeping because he keeps waiting for new stuff on his computer, and unless he's drinking heavily, he doesn't look like he's sleeping either.
Steve
The video is still up on Yahoo. He didn't really say the Carolinas. He just thinks that they're going to get something serious this year. I got the feeling that he doesn't really know what's going to happen. He called for a potential stall, mentioned the t.s. in the WPAC creeping north to Japan/teleconnection with Outer Banks and the possibility it could come back even southwest with time. He said both systems were problematic (for potential development and forecasters). He swears he's not sleeping because he keeps waiting for new stuff on his computer, and unless he's drinking heavily, he doesn't look like he's sleeping either.
Steve
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amawea
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Well Derek, I appreciate your knowledge and forecast. But remember one thing. Sometimes the book/research is a poor substitute for experience.
Every once in awhile, things just don't work like they are supposed to. When they start doing wierd things I listen to the old timers. Just 2 days ago everyone was saying we were going to have a break for a week or so because there just didn't look like anything was going on. Now look at it.
amawea
Every once in awhile, things just don't work like they are supposed to. When they start doing wierd things I listen to the old timers. Just 2 days ago everyone was saying we were going to have a break for a week or so because there just didn't look like anything was going on. Now look at it.
amawea
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>>Now look at it.
Yeah, NAO I think is playing a big part in this burst (direct or indicative). Also, the upper patterns have been interesting around development this season. There seems to be a lot of short but sharp amplification across North America and a lot of narrow stretched out trofs splitting across the water west of 75. It's a weird reaction (to me anyway) in the western Atlantic too this season. There are extensive TUTTS as in El Nino seasons, but most of them are splitting and backing off southwest like in La Nina seasons. Maybe it's a neutral variation of that pattern, but what do I know?
Steve
Yeah, NAO I think is playing a big part in this burst (direct or indicative). Also, the upper patterns have been interesting around development this season. There seems to be a lot of short but sharp amplification across North America and a lot of narrow stretched out trofs splitting across the water west of 75. It's a weird reaction (to me anyway) in the western Atlantic too this season. There are extensive TUTTS as in El Nino seasons, but most of them are splitting and backing off southwest like in La Nina seasons. Maybe it's a neutral variation of that pattern, but what do I know?
Steve
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Scott_inVA
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Steve wrote:I agree with you completely. However, the Globals IMHO are complete garbage at this point too. We'll know in 48 hours which sets had a better handle this time around.
Steve
Globals aren't garbage. Some runs might be but they clearly better
"understand" downstream mid-lat climo. Wednesday, when I put up the first Invest maps on this event the "hurricane" models all were west into FL while the numerical models were fish. That's how this will probably go.
Only the UKMET (dreadful this year, BTW) hinted a loop before TPC did the loop-de-loop. Didn't buy that either and PRESTO! next Advisory is a recurve fish out to sea.
I minor ranted here earlier this isn't going to be a FL/GOM storm. When the "hurricane" models initially did that and the globals did not, I felt good I had the right idea and still believe it is.
Scott
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DAVE440
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TWC just said the system that determines if it will move westward is
a high in the middle of the country now. The high is forecast to move east in the next few days and if Franky is still meandering around out there when the high goes over it the flow around the high might drag it back to the west.
If the storm is already far enough away to the NE it might not be affected or of course if it speeds up and makes land somewhere before the high reaches it....
Lots of IIIFFFFFFssssss
NHC has updated due to uncertainty and taken Fl. out of the 5 day cone till more factors are in place...
a high in the middle of the country now. The high is forecast to move east in the next few days and if Franky is still meandering around out there when the high goes over it the flow around the high might drag it back to the west.
If the storm is already far enough away to the NE it might not be affected or of course if it speeds up and makes land somewhere before the high reaches it....
Lots of IIIFFFFFFssssss
NHC has updated due to uncertainty and taken Fl. out of the 5 day cone till more factors are in place...
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>>Globals aren't garbage. Some runs might be but they clearly better
"understand" downstream mid-lat climo.
Not throwing the baby out with the bathwater, just giving my take on their initial few runs on Franklin. They could be right. I think they're suspect. As far as understanding downstream mid-lat climo, IMHO it depends on the position, the model and the setup.
Steve
"understand" downstream mid-lat climo.
Not throwing the baby out with the bathwater, just giving my take on their initial few runs on Franklin. They could be right. I think they're suspect. As far as understanding downstream mid-lat climo, IMHO it depends on the position, the model and the setup.
Steve
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