TS Franklin Recon Reports=Mission Over,Next one at 2100z

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cycloneye
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TS Franklin Recon Reports=Mission Over,Next one at 2100z

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:30 pm

A new thread for the early morning mission which begins around 9:00z.
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:48 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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#2 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 22, 2005 2:32 am

Just a reminder, you can grab the latest recon obs, in raw form, from the S2K Recon Page. Of course, if you have any suggestions on the page, PM me. Also, the page auto-refreshes so you're on top of the latest reports.
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#3 Postby P.K. » Fri Jul 22, 2005 5:13 am

URNT11 KNHC 221003
97779 09574 60300 86500 76200 99005 7079/ /5765
RMK AF307 0206A FRANKLIN OB 01
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#4 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 5:46 am

404
URNT11 KNHC 221027
97779 10244 60297 83900 76200 99005 70852 /5766
RMK AF307 0206A FRANKLIN OB 02
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#5 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 6:36 am

Here's a "first light' visible image I just snapped in McIdas. Doesn't look like a TS any more. Could be an LLC to the northwest of the cloud mass:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/franklin11.gif">
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#6 Postby InimanaChoogamaga » Fri Jul 22, 2005 6:43 am

I think the LLC is West of all that cloud cover. Looks like it is east of West Palm Beach:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml
Last edited by InimanaChoogamaga on Fri Jul 22, 2005 6:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#7 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 6:43 am

987
URNT11 KNHC 221125
97779 11214 60284 79100 03700 99005 24238 /0017
49905
RMK AF307 0206A FRANKLIN OB 03
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#8 Postby Lowpressure » Fri Jul 22, 2005 6:48 am

Do you think it hangs on to TS classification? Almost looks like a sharp wave this morning, maybe a low center to the nw side. I guess recon will tell. My guess would be downgrade to TD, based on the books cover. System does look a little better on radar with a LLC visible.
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#9 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 6:52 am

TS? I'm not sure it's a TD now. If there's a center over the northern Bahamas, then the central pressure is pretty high. Here's a sfc plot:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/franklin14.gif">
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#10 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:00 am

InimanaChoogamaga wrote:I think the LLC is West of all that cloud cover. Looks like it is east of West Palm Beach:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml


no the LLC is just to the northeast of the Bahamas- it is a warmer spot on IR
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#11 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:07 am

There is certainly an LLC there. It's shows up very well on radar. Almost over Great Abaco.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.html
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#12 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:18 am

so no recon report for the 8am advisory
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#13 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:21 am

1216 2631N 07653W 00363 5020 212 046 214 214 049 00357 0000000000
1216. 2630N 07652W 00366 5014 205 047 200 200 048 00365 0000000000
1217 2629N 07650W 00368 5009 208 043 192 192 044 00372 0000000000


SW 49kts at Flight level Still a TS
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#14 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:24 am

51mph at surface
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#15 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:29 am

Are they at 1500 ft? I'm not getting the recon reports here. From 1500ft, I beleve you multiply FL winds by 0.7. That would make it a 34kt storm. Perhaps the FL is in meters there next to the wind - 5000+ meters or 10,000 ft. Conversion there is 0.9.
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#16 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:35 am

wxman57 wrote:Are they at 1500 ft? I'm not getting the recon reports here. From 1500ft, I beleve you multiply FL winds by 0.7. That would make it a 34kt storm. Perhaps the FL is in meters there next to the wind - 5000+ meters or 10,000 ft. Conversion there is 0.9.


I used 0.9 conversion
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#17 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:37 am

I use a calculator . By the way I think 1500 ft flight level is 80% reduction. so that would make it about 39kts.
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#18 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:40 am

how much would 39kt be in MPH?
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#19 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:42 am

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:how much would 39kt be in MPH?


45mph... so same as it has been for the past 12 hours...
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#20 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:42 am

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:how much would 39kt be in MPH?


About 45mph. Just multiply knots by 1.15.

12z models initialized Frank at 45kts so they may upgrade to 50mph at 11am.
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