91L Invest

[wxwatcher91]

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

[jasons2k]

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

They need to.

[jasons2k]

JB says Corpus to Tampico. I still don't think we should really nail down any sort of landfall until we have a center, but that's his opinion this AM

[Kludge]

JB says Corpus to Tampico. I still don't think we should really nail down any sort of landfall until we have a center, but that's his opinion this AM

Joe hedges his bet though; he says that it depends on where the center forms as to where it will landfall. Duh. Waves don't tend to move north. So much will depend on IF it moves once its into the BOC, I'm thinking.

Note that we're getting awfully close to the place and time of year where Alicia formed.

[Air Force Met]

JB says Corpus to Tampico. I still don't think we should really nail down any sort of landfall until we have a center, but that's his opinion this AM

Joe hedges his bet though; he says that it depends on where the center forms as to where it will landfall. Duh. Waves don't tend to move north. So much will depend on IF it moves once its into the BOC, I'm thinking.

Note that we're getting awfully close to the place and time of year where Alicia formed.

Explain place and time....thanks.

[PTrackerLA]

NWS Lake Charles is saying my area won't feel any impacts from the carib. disturbance as it will pass well south of us. So much for beneficial rains...

[Stormcenter]

NWS Lake Charles is saying my area won't feel any impacts from the carib. disturbance as it will pass well south of us. So much for beneficial rains...

Way too early to make a call like that.IMO

[jasons2k]

At this point, W&S...

[Portastorm]

wow ... system looks to be wrapping up some this morning. do y'all see that "twisting" motion on satellite off Belize?

[HouTXmetro]

wow ... system looks to be wrapping up some this morning. do y'all see that "twisting" motion on satellite off Belize?

I see it. There was a circulation yesterday and it looked so impressive. What a difference a day makes.

[cycloneye]

SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 23/1800Z A. 24/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE
C. 23/1530Z C. 24/0300Z
D. 20.5N 92.5W D. 22.5N 94.5W
E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2300Z E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F.SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A FIX AT 25/1500Z ON FRANKLIN.
CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SUSPECT AREA DEVELOPS.

The Squadron will have work to do at BOC.

[jasons2k]

Yes! It'll be very interesting to see what's really going on.

[tailgater]

The Squadron will work hard at BOC.
AN early guess: there's a circ. center MID OR LLC on the north end of Belize but it's weak and will be reforming on it's entire journey across the Yucatan until it reachs the near Merida. My guess, what's your's, post it here instead of starting a new thread.

[Brent]

11:30 TWO:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER LAND...BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

[PTrackerLA]

My guess is that it will develop into something once in the BOC but run into Mexico once again as the big ridge won't allow it to turn north...kind of like Bret but probably a little stronger. Our local NWS has already written the system off as not having any impact on our area which is unfortunate given the 15" rainfall deficit.

[Jim Cantore]

this thing formed in a simalar area as hurricane bob in 1991 and is passing the same area as it's "father" hurricane floyd did in 99

unlike those the forcast is more promising (So far.....)

[tw861]

Looking at a zoomed in shot from the NASA site, there does appear to be a circulation on the northern coast of Belize near that current blow up of thunderstorms. Where it comes off the Yucatan will have a big impact on whether it goes into Mexico or heads for south Texas.

[Brent]

this thing formed in a simalar area as hurricane bob in 1991 and is passing the same area as it's "father" hurricane floyd did in 99

unlike those the forcast is more promising (So far.....)

I think you mean Franklin... not this system.

[Opal storm]

This system is going to have to take a more northern track in order to develop into anything,but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.Probably a weak T.S for N Mexico.

[Thunder44]

91L Invest is up for this system.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi