Bamm Question??

[Blown Away]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Why does the NHC use the BAMM, it seems to be way off all the time.

[Hyperstorm]

The BAMM models are good only for the deep tropics. I don't know why the NHC is putting so much weight in them. I can only think that they want to cover all sides, so people in nearby areas don't let their guard down in case something unexpected happens.

[x-y-no]

So why do you have the idea that NHC puts any significant reliance on the BAMs? They look at many models, and if they put particular emphasis of any of them it's probably the GFS, the GFDL, the UKMET and the NOGAPS.

[Hyperstorm]

So why do you have the idea that NHC puts any significant reliance on the BAMs? They look at many models, and if they put particular emphasis of any of them it's probably the GFS, the GFDL, the UKMET and the NOGAPS.

I don't know if your comment was directed to me, but I'll respond.

In this particular case, yes. I think they're putting heavier weight on these models than in the past. Normally, they don't even mention the BAMM models in their discussions, but they have with this system.

Stewart's forecast yesterday at 5pm was based *mostly* on the BAMM models, which showed the storm taking a westward course toward Florida, even though all the dynamical guidance indicated no threat. The last forecast at 5am was based on the dynamical models, so it appears that they are starting to put more weight into those models, even though they still mention a possibility of a slow-down late in the period (as if the storm would follow the BAMM models track westward).

They appear to have a low-confidence forecast, so that tells me that they are looking at their BAMM models as much as their dynamical guidance...