TS Franklin Recon Reports=Mission Over,Next one at 2100z

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JamesFromMaine2
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#21 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:44 am

ok thanks
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#22 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:45 am

22/1145 UTC 26.8N 77.2W T2.5/2.5 FRANKLIN
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#23 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:46 am

126
URNT12 KNHC 221239
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/12:14:00Z
B. 26 deg 35 min N
076 deg 58 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. 338 deg 015 nm
F. 087 deg 021 kt
G. 346 deg 006 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 23 C/ 367 m
J. 25 C/ 365 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /01
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF307 0206A FRANKLIN OB 04
MAX FL WIND 21 KT N QUAD 12:12:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
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#24 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:48 am

1007mb hmm another mb down... lol
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#25 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:49 am

Wow Thunder it's bombing bigtime. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#26 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:49 am

:eek: Everyone run and hide.

:)
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#27 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:51 am

Thunder44 wrote:126
URNT12 KNHC 221239
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/12:14:00Z
B. 26 deg 35 min N
076 deg 58 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. 338 deg 015 nm
F. 087 deg 021 kt
G. 346 deg 006 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 23 C/ 367 m
J. 25 C/ 365 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /01
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF307 0206A FRANKLIN OB 04
MAX FL WIND 21 KT N QUAD 12:12:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


Why are they extrapolating the pressure since yesterday? Why don't they drop a dropsonde into the center of the storm to get an accurate reading? So poorly defined it is?
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#28 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:51 am

you guys are laughing now about it but from sat. images both storms are getting far enough away from each other now that Franklin could get going here this morning and this could just be the start of it!
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#29 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 am

cycloneye wrote:Wow Thunder it's bombing bigtime. :lol: :lol: :lol:


Yeah, cat 3 hurricane by 11am. :lol:
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#30 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:01 am

Thunder44 wrote:
JamesFromMaine2 wrote:how much would 39kt be in MPH?


About 45mph. Just multiply knots by 1.15.

12z models initialized Frank at 45kts so they may upgrade to 50mph at 11am.


Of course, that guess was before recon went in to verify.
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#31 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:02 am

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:you guys are laughing now about it but from sat. images both storms are getting far enough away from each other now that Franklin could get going here this morning and this could just be the start of it!


sorry but neither the models nor the NHC official forecast have Franklin gaining anything more than 10mph over the next 5 days
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#32 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:07 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:
JamesFromMaine2 wrote:you guys are laughing now about it but from sat. images both storms are getting far enough away from each other now that Franklin could get going here this morning and this could just be the start of it!


sorry but neither the models nor the NHC official forecast have Franklin gaining anything more than 10mph over the next 5 days


That's not right. NHC forecast has 60kts by 72 hrs. That's near 70mph. Latest Ships has 62kts forecast as well.

239
URNT11 KNHC 221255
97779 12494 60254 75618 03600 21027 24239 /0017
41840
RMK AF307 0206A FRANKLIN OB 05

South winds at 40kts at the surface.
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#33 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:08 am

239
URNT11 KNHC 221255
97779 12494 60254 75618 03600 21027 24239 /0017
41840
RMK AF307 0206A FRANKLIN OB 05
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#34 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:11 am

Thunder44 wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:
JamesFromMaine2 wrote:you guys are laughing now about it but from sat. images both storms are getting far enough away from each other now that Franklin could get going here this morning and this could just be the start of it!


sorry but neither the models nor the NHC official forecast have Franklin gaining anything more than 10mph over the next 5 days


That's not right. NHC forecast has 60kts by 72 hrs. That's near 70mph. Latest Ships has 62kts forecast as well.

239
URNT11 KNHC 221255
97779 12494 60254 75618 03600 21027 24239 /0017
41840
RMK AF307 0206A FRANKLIN OB 05

South winds at 40kts at the surface.


ok so 20mph :wink:
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#35 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:08 am

Hyperstorm wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:126
URNT12 KNHC 221239
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/12:14:00Z
B. 26 deg 35 min N
076 deg 58 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. 338 deg 015 nm
F. 087 deg 021 kt
G. 346 deg 006 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 23 C/ 367 m
J. 25 C/ 365 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /01
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF307 0206A FRANKLIN OB 04
MAX FL WIND 21 KT N QUAD 12:12:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


Why are they extrapolating the pressure since yesterday? Why don't they drop a dropsonde into the center of the storm to get an accurate reading? So poorly defined it is?


They did drop a dropsonde yesterday and got something like 1005 mb, IIRC. But you never saw that in a vortex message or advisory. I guess they considered it suspect for some reason or another. I don't know...
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#36 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:10 am

Supplemental Vortex

Storm: Storm FRANKLIN: Observed By AF #307
Storm #06 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 21KT (24.1mph 38.9km/h) In N Quadrant At 12:12:10 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 18.9KT (21.7mph 35.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks: P EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT. (Report Time: 22/1309Z)
Max Inbound Flight Level Winds: 26.7N 77.0W 021KT (24.15MPH 38.9km/h) [11:24:30Z to 12:09:00Z]
Inbound Surface Wind Observed At 05KT (5.75MPH 9.3km/h) @ 990°
Max Outbound Flight Level Winds: 26.5N 76.9W 049KT (56.35MPH 90.8km/h) [12:19:10Z to 12:44:50Z]
Outbound Surface Wind Observed At 40KT (46MPH 74.1km/h) @ 180°
Data # Position Height Temp Dewpoint Wind
I01 28.3N 79.0W Sea level: 16mb 24°C 22°C 011KT (12.65MPH 20.4 km/h) @ 50°
I02 28.1N 78.8W Sea level: 16mb 24°C 22°C 011KT (12.65MPH 20.4 km/h) @ 30°
I03 28.0N 78.6W Sea level: 16mb 24°C 23°C 013KT (14.95MPH 24.1 km/h) @ 30°
I04 27.8N 78.4W Sea level: 16mb 24°C 23°C 015KT (17.25MPH 27.8 km/h) @ 20°
I05 27.6N 78.2W Sea level: 15mb 24°C 23°C 016KT (18.4MPH 29.6 km/h) @ 20°
I06 27.5N 77.9W Sea level: 15mb 23°C 23°C 014KT (16.1MPH 25.9 km/h) @ 30°
I07 27.4N 77.7W Sea level: 15mb 23°C 22°C 013KT (14.95MPH 24.1 km/h) @ 40°
I08 27.2N 77.4W Sea level: 14mb 22°C 22°C 013KT (14.95MPH 24.1 km/h) @ 50°
I09 27.0N 77.2W Sea level: 14mb 22°C 22°C 013KT (14.95MPH 24.1 km/h) @ 60°
I10 26.8N 77.1W Sea level: 12mb 22°C 22°C 018KT (20.7MPH 33.3 km/h) @ 40°
O01 26.4N 76.7W Sea level: 13mb 21°C 21°C 041KT (47.15MPH 75.9 km/h) @ 210°
O02 26.2N 76.6W Sea level: 14mb 22°C 22°C 037KT (42.55MPH 68.5 km/h) @ 210°
O03 26.1N 76.4W Sea level: 15mb 22°C 20°C 035KT (40.25MPH 64.8 km/h) @ 220°
O04 25.9N 76.2W Sea level: 16mb 22°C 21°C 034KT (39.1MPH 63.0 km/h) @ 220°
O05 25.7N 76.0W Sea level: 17mb 22°C 22°C 025KT (28.75MPH 46.3 km/h) @ 210°
O06 25.5N 75.8W Sea level: 17mb 24°C 20°C 029KT (33.35MPH 53.7 km/h) @ 200°

OB 06
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#37 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:21 am

Ob 07
Time: 1348Z
Position: 28.1 North / 75.8 West
Flight level: 1460 meters
FL winds: 25 knots // 160
Temp: 16 C
Dewpoint: 15 C
Weather: rain
850 millibar height: 1566 meters
Surface winds: 40 knots // 140

000

URNT11 KNHC 221354
97779 13484 60281 75808 14600 16025 16158 /2566
41440
RMK AF307 0206A FRANKLIN OB 07




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#38 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:52 am



URNT12 KNHC 221445
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/14:20:40Z
B. 26 deg 53 min N
076 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1494 m
D. 40 kt
E. 29 deg 067 nm
F. 120 deg 027 kt
G. 022 deg 054 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 16 C/ 1466 m
J. 20 C/ 1462 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0206A FRANKLIN OB 08
MAX FL WIND 49 KT SE QUAD 12:15:40
DECENT BANDING ON RADAR
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#39 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:54 am

Observation Number: 09
Time transmitted: 1445Z
Position: 26.9 North // 76.7 West
Sea Level Pressure: 1007 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 3 knots // 115
1000 millibar height: 63 meters
1000 millibar winds 5 knots // 120
925 millibar height: 748 meters
925 millibar winds: 1 knot // 180
850 millibar height: 1486 meters
850 millibar winds: 2 knots / /230
EYE
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#40 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jul 22, 2005 10:26 am

OB 10
Time: 1455Z
Position: 25.7 North 78.8 West
Flight level: 1460 meters
FL winds: 13 knots // 300
Temp/dewpoint: 17/13
Weather: broken clouds
850 millibar level: 1573 meters
surrface winds: 5 knots
URNT11 KNHC 221503
97779 14554 60257 78000 14600 30013 17132 /2573
49905
RMK AF307 0206A FRANKLIN OB 10
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