They are not giving up on the loop yet...

[DESTRUCTION5]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 330/02 KT. THE FIRST TWO RECON
POSITIONS HAVE COME IN EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITIONS...
AND THE MOST RECENT FIX CAME IN ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
FIRST ONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND
MELBOURNE INDICATE LITTLE OVERALL NET MOTION...OTHER PERHAPS A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND 12Z INDICATE THAT
FRANKLIN APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF OR WITHIN A
FAIRLY STOUT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. AS RESULT...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLOW ERRATIC MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS MOVES EASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST AND WEAKENS
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN. THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD AT THAT TIME AND...IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING...THEN THE CYCLONE WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...FRANKLIN
IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH RIDGE
TO THE NORTH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA AND TURN
TOWARD THE WEST. THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED BY THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS NHC98 AND A9UK...WHICH MAKE A SMALL
LOOP NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THEN TURN FRANKLIN BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 96 HOURS. THE DEEP AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS
HAVE ALSO PERSISTED WITH THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING THE
CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 72-96
HOURS.

[Steve]

I think they just don't know. There's going to be a lot of egg on a lot of faces if the system doesn't head out to sea - here and elsewhere. There have been some very direct pronouncements made about models and about Franklin in general at a time when everything was quite suspect. I still don't know what he's going to do, but I'm not afraid to say so. I like what DEST. posted from the discussion because it spells out the scenarios rather than jumping solely on a one-way and out scenario (whether or not that's ultimately correct).

Steve

[jpigott]

so if i'm understanding this correctly the trough will likely pick up Franklin, but they are unsure whether it will be enough to take him out to sea before the ridge builds back in to send Franklin back to the w or wsw?

[sponger]

That is correct. This time of year it is not uncommon to have a trough pick up a storm a drop it as it lifts out.

[Dean4Storms]

They could just blame it on the Bermuda Triangle! LOL!!

[EDR1222]

Yep, must be the triangle.

[sponger]

The storm looks to be getting better organized. IR and visable looking much better than this morning.

[Brent]

They could just blame it on the Bermuda Triangle! LOL!!

[baygirl_1]

i don't know... sounds to me that the steering currents are weakening. therefore, they are not completely confident in franklin heading out to sea. the loop is a possibility, but it appears (at least from their forecasted track) that the out to sea track still is the probability. it's one of those "stay tuned" things! of course, on the mississippi coast they'd probably call the 11am discussion "covering all your bets!"

[tronbunny]

It doesn't look as if we'll have a solid handle on Franklin's intentions for at least another 12 hours.
From the last 2 discussions, I'm reading a 50/50 on the trough taking it east and the ridge driving it west.

This is really a true "bears watching" scenario.

The trough scenario would be a seriously welcome relief to the last 12 months of worry.
The 'magical' ridge that has relieved the SE Atlantic coast of worry for a few months is now a potential threat, again.

[gkrangers]

They can't give up on the loop till they are sure the trough is going to take it out to sea.

[EDR1222]

Looks like the slower movement that has occured through the morning is complicating things.

[gkrangers]

Looks like the slower movement that has occured through the morning is complicating things.

Slower movement = less likely the trough does its job.

[Weatherboy1]

Looks like in the last couple of hours, Franklin has already started his long journey to nowheresville! Could just be part of the short-term erratic motion, but it may also be the start of him being ejected off to the ENE and NE. If it continues through the overnight hours, I'm pretty much going to go with the "see you later" track the NHC has.

-Mike

[jax]

Looks like in the last couple of hours, Franklin has already started his long journey to nowheresville! Could just be part of the short-term erratic motion, but it may also be the start of him being ejected off to the ENE and NE. If it continues through the overnight hours, I'm pretty much going to go with the "see you later" track the NHC has.

-Mike

I wouldn't call 2mph the start of a journey... they actually used
the word "drifting"

we will see...

[Jim Cantore]

Franklin is looking more orginized and I THINK the winds will go up on on next advisory. Of course that is the NHC's call

I think if this thing hits somewhere it will be North Carolina

[Nimbus]

Real good discussion.
The further north Franklin gets the more likely that he will get picked up by the trough.
The stronger Franklin gets the more likely the trough will dig to lift him out.
I've seen small systems as far north as the Carolinas get rolled back toward the southwest after a trough missed them.
My thinking is that as the trough starts to dig south the whole ridge slab he is moving through may shift far enough south for the trough to miss.
He better intensify and start moving with a little more northerly component soon.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Real good discussion.
The further north Franklin gets the more likely that he will get picked up by the trough.
The stronger Franklin gets the more likely the trough will dig to lift him out.
I've seen small systems as far north as the Carolinas get rolled back toward the southwest after a trough missed them.
My thinking is that as the trough starts to dig south the whole ridge slab he is moving through may shift far enough south for the trough to miss.
He better intensify and start moving with a little more northerly component soon.

Yeah and most important speed! Hes not going to get any where to fast moving at 2mph I don't care how of a northerly component he has with out the speed I don't think he will be picked up!

[Jim Cantore]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Heres my projected path as of now



As with any there is a margin of error with this "cone of uncertainty"

[Sanibel]

The mid-west High is the dominating feature. The Atlantic High is compressed and yielding. Franklin should hook NE in response.

The trough over the eastern US isn't really that strong or plunging. It is more like a border between the mid-west High and the Atlantic synoptic.


A WV loop tempts one to want Franklin to just push in front of the trough and lift out to sea, but the Atlantic High has enough stubborness to suggest holding - or trapping - Franklin in place.

Another suggestion is a slow drift NE and then being taken up by the mid-west High and sent inland towards Carolina.

Most likely Franklin will meander in the weak synoptic until it just gets plain taken out to sea with the whole shebang...