91L Invest
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lilbump3000
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mike18xx
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wxwatcher91
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HURAKAN
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LLC IS FORMING!
TWD 2:05 EDT PM:
A strong tropical wave is in the NW Caribbean Sea from the
Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Honduras moving W 10-15 kt.
Satellite images show a weak 1011 mb low forming along the wave
axis near 18n 88w. The low clouds over the Yucatan are
moving from N to S... suggesting the system has gotten better
organized overnight with a Ball of convection near the
disorganized circulation center. Proximity to land may inhibit
further development today but a building upper ridge over the SW
Gulf of Mexico could allow formation over the Bay of Campeche
tomorrow as the system moves into that area. Widely scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the E coast of Belize and
Yucatan and also from 18n-21n between the Cayman Islands and
Yucatan.
TWD 2:05 EDT PM:
A strong tropical wave is in the NW Caribbean Sea from the
Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Honduras moving W 10-15 kt.
Satellite images show a weak 1011 mb low forming along the wave
axis near 18n 88w. The low clouds over the Yucatan are
moving from N to S... suggesting the system has gotten better
organized overnight with a Ball of convection near the
disorganized circulation center. Proximity to land may inhibit
further development today but a building upper ridge over the SW
Gulf of Mexico could allow formation over the Bay of Campeche
tomorrow as the system moves into that area. Widely scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the E coast of Belize and
Yucatan and also from 18n-21n between the Cayman Islands and
Yucatan.
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stormie_skies
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stormie_skies wrote:I asked Dan Meador at KHOU what he thought about the Emily redux scenario, and if he thought us Texans should be breathing a little easier. This was his response:My only concern is that the upper high moves too far east and allows the system to move up it's west side. That would open the door for Texas. In fact the 12z NAM show almost that. It brings the tropical system up the coastline into central Texas by mid-week.
I know nothing about the likelihood of something like this happening .... so I'm wondering what the many more knowlegable hobbyists & pro mets on here think....
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HouTXmetro
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wxwatcher91
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ok sorry this isnt really directly relating to 91L but I didnt want to get yelled at for starting a new post so I'm just gonna say something here...
so just to clarify things: there are currently 5 tropical disturbances in the Atlantic right now, correct? and one is Franklin, one is 91L which will likely develop in the Gulf, one is the E Atlantic tropical wave which is looking pretty good, one is a wave heading towards the Lesser Antilles: not looking to bad either, and the last is a weaker wave that is north of Panama- no development likely...
000
AXNT20 KNHC 221754
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.4N 76.7W OR ABOUT 70
MILES... 110 KM... NORTHEAST OF MARSH HARBOR ON GREAT ABACO
ISLAND AT 22/1800 UTC MOVING N 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
FRANKLIN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM WITH TIGHT BANDING
FEATURES AND AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED ALMOST OVERHEAD..
PROVIDING LIGHT SHEAR. THE CYCLONE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE INTERACTING
WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
MUCH LATITUDE THE SYSTEM GAINS BECAUSE IT WILL BE CRUCIAL IN
DETERMINING HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM CAN RECURVE IF IT CATCHES THE
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN
74W-78W.
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WEAK 1011 MB LOW FORMING ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 18N 88W. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE YUCATAN ARE
MOVING FROM N TO S... SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM HAS GOTTEN BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH A BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER. PROXIMITY TO LAND MAY INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TODAY BUT A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO COULD ALLOW FORMATION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE E COAST OF BELIZE AND
YUCATAN AND ALSO FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
YUCATAN.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE E-CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG ABOUT 37W S
OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. DUST CONCENTRATIONS ARE QUITE THICK
WITHIN THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE THOUGH THE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP A BIT AS THE WAVE ENTERS A
MORE UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE. STRONG SW WINDS ON THE S
SIDE OF THE WAVE ARE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 9N37W 11N28W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG ABOUT 61W S OF 18N
MOVING W 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS AND ITS V-SHAPE IS DEGRADING A BIT ON SATELLITE PICTURES.
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FROM 12N-17.5N BETWEEN 58W-63W...
ENHANCED BY THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO THE NW.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W S OF 14N
MOVING W 10 KT. THE BEST EVIDENCE OF THE WAVE COMES FROM TSTMS
OVER S AMERICA... OTHERWISE NO EFFECTS OVER THE AREA SAVE
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
NW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW A SPECIAL FEATURE.
so just to clarify things: there are currently 5 tropical disturbances in the Atlantic right now, correct? and one is Franklin, one is 91L which will likely develop in the Gulf, one is the E Atlantic tropical wave which is looking pretty good, one is a wave heading towards the Lesser Antilles: not looking to bad either, and the last is a weaker wave that is north of Panama- no development likely...
000
AXNT20 KNHC 221754
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.4N 76.7W OR ABOUT 70
MILES... 110 KM... NORTHEAST OF MARSH HARBOR ON GREAT ABACO
ISLAND AT 22/1800 UTC MOVING N 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
FRANKLIN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM WITH TIGHT BANDING
FEATURES AND AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED ALMOST OVERHEAD..
PROVIDING LIGHT SHEAR. THE CYCLONE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE INTERACTING
WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
MUCH LATITUDE THE SYSTEM GAINS BECAUSE IT WILL BE CRUCIAL IN
DETERMINING HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM CAN RECURVE IF IT CATCHES THE
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN
74W-78W.
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WEAK 1011 MB LOW FORMING ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 18N 88W. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE YUCATAN ARE
MOVING FROM N TO S... SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM HAS GOTTEN BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH A BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER. PROXIMITY TO LAND MAY INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TODAY BUT A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO COULD ALLOW FORMATION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE E COAST OF BELIZE AND
YUCATAN AND ALSO FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
YUCATAN.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE E-CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG ABOUT 37W S
OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. DUST CONCENTRATIONS ARE QUITE THICK
WITHIN THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE THOUGH THE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP A BIT AS THE WAVE ENTERS A
MORE UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE. STRONG SW WINDS ON THE S
SIDE OF THE WAVE ARE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 9N37W 11N28W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG ABOUT 61W S OF 18N
MOVING W 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS AND ITS V-SHAPE IS DEGRADING A BIT ON SATELLITE PICTURES.
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FROM 12N-17.5N BETWEEN 58W-63W...
ENHANCED BY THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO THE NW.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W S OF 14N
MOVING W 10 KT. THE BEST EVIDENCE OF THE WAVE COMES FROM TSTMS
OVER S AMERICA... OTHERWISE NO EFFECTS OVER THE AREA SAVE
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
NW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW A SPECIAL FEATURE.
Last edited by wxwatcher91 on Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
As it says in the 2:05 TWD, a circulation may be forming, and here are some reports that support the statement.
Belize City, Belize reporting SW Winds.
Puerto Cortez, Honduras reporting West winds.
Monkey River, Belize reporting SW winds.
Puerto Barrios, Guatemala reporting WSW winds.
I found this visiting accuweather.com international weather.
Belize City, Belize reporting SW Winds.
Puerto Cortez, Honduras reporting West winds.
Monkey River, Belize reporting SW winds.
Puerto Barrios, Guatemala reporting WSW winds.
I found this visiting accuweather.com international weather.
Last edited by HURAKAN on Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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deltadog03
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3580
- Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
- Location: Macon, GA
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wxwatcher91
- Category 5
- Posts: 1606
- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
- Location: Keene, NH
- Contact:
000
WHXX01 KWBC 221814
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050722 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050722 1800 050723 0600 050723 1800 050724 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.7N 88.3W 19.0N 90.6W 20.2N 93.0W 21.3N 95.2W
BAMM 17.7N 88.3W 18.6N 90.6W 19.6N 93.1W 20.5N 95.3W
A98E 17.7N 88.3W 18.8N 90.1W 19.9N 91.9W 21.1N 93.9W
LBAR 17.7N 88.3W 18.8N 90.4W 20.2N 93.0W 21.6N 95.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 34KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050724 1800 050725 1800 050726 1800 050727 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 97.4W 23.3N 101.2W 23.2N 104.7W 22.8N 108.3W
BAMM 21.4N 97.5W 22.9N 101.0W 23.5N 104.1W 23.7N 107.4W
A98E 22.6N 96.1W 25.9N 100.5W 28.5N 102.5W 29.4N 102.9W
LBAR 23.3N 98.4W 27.0N 102.0W 29.3N 102.8W 30.9N 103.4W
SHIP 53KTS 62KTS 68KTS 70KTS
DSHP 44KTS 29KTS 27KTS 30KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.7N LONCUR = 88.3W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 86.6W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 84.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
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HouTXmetro
- Category 5
- Posts: 3949
- Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
- Location: District of Columbia, USA
deltadog03 wrote:we will see where it heads...houston NWS still is thinking northern gulf....time will tell...then it boils down to the ridge...its suppose to weaken by sunday....
What does Hou NWS know? As for as I'm concerned they are the only ones discussing a strike on the northern Gulf by 91L. I have not heard of any other discussion including the NHC. Hou NWS is starting to lose credibilty with me fast.
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
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mike18xx
Bah. Use NASA; they're better anyway.Portastorm wrote:What "tree" do we need to shake to get a satellite floater now focused on this area? Emily is dead but Floater 1 is still set on that area of NE Mexico.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
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Portastorm
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HouTXmetro wrote:deltadog03 wrote:we will see where it heads...houston NWS still is thinking northern gulf....time will tell...then it boils down to the ridge...its suppose to weaken by sunday....
What does Hou NWS know? As for as I'm concerned they are the only ones discussing a strike on the northern Gulf by 91L. I have not heard of any other discussion including the NHC. Hou NWS is starting to lose credibilty with me fast.
For the record, Hou-Galv NWS only said they were monitoring the system and were keeping a close eye on it. To my knowledge they have not progged it to directly impact the northern Gulf coast.
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mike18xx
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deltadog03
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3580
- Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
- Location: Macon, GA
No, the Houston/Galveston NWS office is not saying that this disturbance is heading our way at all. They are mentioning about the possibilities of it effecting our weather in a few days which could very well happen. Even if it comes ashore well to our south it will increase our rain chances. Read below.
IN THE TROPICS...THE LATEST FORECAST ON TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN
KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AND
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WEATHER.
IN THE TROPICS...THE LATEST FORECAST ON TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN
KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AND
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WEATHER.
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deltadog03
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
- Location: Macon, GA
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Portastorm
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- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
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deltadog03 wrote:right I agree....but, that will NOT effect us if it goes anywhere near the path of emily....maybe you might get a shower or 2....to me that is saying SE coast...not S coast...imo
dog, y'all need one of those straight northbound systems that hits near Corpus and goes west of the Metroplex and rains itself out over you! However the angle of 91L doesn't look too promising for that.
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