Atlantic Waves,Discussions and sat pics

[mike18xx]

Convection still is not consolidated as a circule but it's deep convection and beyond 40w waters are even more warm so let's watch it definitly and yes this thread will still be running.

IMO, the circulation is WAY too broad and diffuse, and its center decoupled from the ITCZ, to support anything getting going -- just because a big atmospheric eddy has a cyclonic nature to it doesn't mean that it's a candidate for generating convection, let alone anything resembling tropical development.

You're much more likely to see something (if anything) form at the top end of the ITCZ buckle-up in the SE quadrant of the diffuse wave.

[mike18xx]

Just look at that convection near 20N in the Sahara! For one reason it is called a desert and what a thunder-shower they have tonight!

Wow yes uncalled the rain in the Sahara.

Rain at 20N in west Africa (especially on the coast) is not particularly unusual this time of year -- it's the rainly season, where most Sahel regions get the overwhelming majority of their yearly precipitation.

[Trader Ron]

This could be a big player in the tropics come next week.

I agree 100%. We'll see...

[cycloneye]

HIGH-AMPLITUDE E-CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG ABOUT 37W S
OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. DUST CONCENTRATIONS ARE QUITE THICK
WITHIN THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE THOUGH THE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP A BIT AS THE WAVE ENTERS A
MORE UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE. STRONG SW WINDS ON THE S
SIDE OF THE WAVE ARE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 9N37W 11N28W.

2:05 Discussion.

[Trader Ron]

I'm watching the wave at around 10N 55W. Also the one behind it.
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[WeatherEmperor]

I'm watching the wave at around 10N 55W. Also the one behind it.
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

so am i. Think anything will come out of it?

<RICKY>

[Huckster]

Sure looks like there's LOTS of dry around around that broad wave. On visible satellite imagery, it looks like a big cloud of dust came off with it. SAL?

[wxwatcher91]

do you think it will develop at all? It's looking okay but like you said there's a lot of dry air surrounding it...

[cycloneye]

do you think it will develop at all? It's looking okay but like you said there's a lot of dry air surrounding it...

Much Saharan dust around the wave and that is not good for it to develop.But waves behind will have less dry air to work with as this big wave has moisted the air behind it.

[Trader Ron]

The wave around 10N 55W has plenty of dry air around it. It might go poof. We'll see. The wave further East MIGHT have a chance.

[cycloneye]

The wave around 10N 55W has plenty of dry air around it. It might go poof. We'll see. The wave further East MIGHT have a chance.

And wave just emerging Africa has much less dry air to work with.

[WeatherEmperor]

The wave around 10N 55W has plenty of dry air around it. It might go poof. We'll see. The wave further East MIGHT have a chance.

And wave just emerging Africa has much less dry air to work with.

Cycloneye I forgot. What is SAL mean again?

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

The wave around 10N 55W has plenty of dry air around it. It might go poof. We'll see. The wave further East MIGHT have a chance.

And wave just emerging Africa has much less dry air to work with.

Cycloneye I forgot. What is SAL mean again?

<RICKY>

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... round.html

SAHARAN AIR LAYER.At link is a much detailed explanation.

[WeatherEmperor]

ok good. i promise ii wont forget it this time cycloneye

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

ok good. i promise ii wont forget it this time cycloneye

<RICKY>

Ok no problem.

[cycloneye]

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W/38W S OF 25N MOVING W
20-25 KT. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW WHICH WAS ALONG THE WAVE WAS
ABSORBED INTO THE ITCZ OVERNIGHT...THE SIGNATURE REMAINS QUITE
AMPLIFIED WITH WIDESPREAD DUST EXTENDING PRIMARILY W OF 30W TO
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY DRY BUT SOME OF
THE MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE HAS BEEN PULLED AROUND
THE N AND W SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...PRODUCING PATCHY STRATOCU
FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 39W-47W. ALL DEEP CONVECTION IS UP TO 600
NM E OF THE WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ.


NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TRPCL WAVE...FROM
6N-14.5N BETWEEN 13W-20W.

Above is the discussion of wave and the start of discussion of a new wave this one more south in latitud than the front one.

[Hyperstorm]

My response to what Stormernie wrote in another thread......

I very much see what he's talking about, but I would rather see some persistence before I say that it will develop. The area he mentioned is also the area that caught my attention earlier this evening as it appears to have a band just to its SE, which is persistent and indicative of a MLC developing.

We'll have to see what happens during the next 12-24 hours as this is not the tropical wave itself, but rather some ITCZ related convection next to the HUGE low-level cloud swirl that is located to its NW.

[boca]

I saw what stormernie wrote in his thread and I also agree about the system developing.I wonder at what point the SE US will have to start worrying about these Storms they all been low trackers thru the Caribbean and into the Gulf. Don Southerland said that the storms will recurve betwen July 30th and Aug 10th what are thoughts of this.

[cycloneye]

My response to what Stormernie wrote in another thread......

I very much see what he's talking about, but I would rather see some persistence before I say that it will develop. The area he mentioned is also the area that caught my attention earlier this evening as it appears to have a band just to its SE, which is persistent and indicative of a MLC developing.

We'll have to see what happens during the next 12-24 hours as this is not the tropical wave itself, but rather some ITCZ related convection next to the HUGE low-level cloud swirl that is located to its NW.

Persistance of convection is key to watch there.

What do you think of wave emerging Africa? Will wave in front help it moist it more?

[boca]

That looks like a healthy wave and could develop ,but if it does it will probably recurve out in the mid Atlantic around 40 to 50 longitude.Reason because usually systems that do develop that far East tend to recurve.