91L Invest

#121 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:02 pm

with franklin being a fish, it it surely more interesting

#122 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:25 pm

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO... AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... BRINGING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE WAVE
MOVES OVER LAND... BUT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP TOMORROW
OR SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

#123 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:35 pm

Gert seems to be around the corner and knocking on already knocked doors!

#124 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:37 pm

wow simply amazing.

<RICKY>

#125 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:43 pm

yep, im wondering when that "LULL" people were talking about will ever happen, surely we will have at least a week this season with no activity

#126 Postby **baygirl_1** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:46 pm

ivanhater wrote:yep, im wondering when that "LULL" people were talking about will ever happen, surely we will have at least a week this season with no activity

it's sure looking like that won't be til late oct. or early nov. groan... :sick:

#127 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:50 pm

baygirl_1 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:yep, im wondering when that "LULL" people were talking about will ever happen, surely we will have at least a week this season with no activity

it's sure looking like that won't be til late oct. or early nov. groan...

Ummm without el nino the season may extend more in time around mid to late november.

#128 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:50 pm

baygirl_1 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:yep, im wondering when that "LULL" people were talking about will ever happen, surely we will have at least a week this season with no activity

it's sure looking like that won't be til late oct. or early nov. groan...

hey you take it easy with those words. lol

<RICKY>

#129 Postby **baygirl_1** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:
baygirl_1 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:yep, im wondering when that "LULL" people were talking about will ever happen, surely we will have at least a week this season with no activity

it's sure looking like that won't be til late oct. or early nov. groan...

Ummm without el nino the season may extend more in time around mid to late november.

i know... a neutral year... it just seems like a long season already and it's just july 22nd! i remember having a halloween storm threaten here when i was in school. time for an attitude adjustment on my part:
from :yayaya:

to

HouTXmetro · #130 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:59 pm

Wait, I thought is was going to move into the BOC? Now it's the SW Gulf? More of a US threat :eek:

#131 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:59 pm

i tell ya, i really thought we would have a break, then all of a sudden like 4 areas popped up and have to be watched...just plain crazy :eek:

#132 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 5:00 pm

>>Wait, I thought is was going to move into the BOC? Now it's the SW Gulf? More of a US threat

While it depends on where the wave exits the Yucatan Peninsula, the Bay of Campeche pretty much is the SW Gulf in my book.

Steve

#133 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 5:01 pm

we all better become really close friends with Starbucks cause coffee is going to be a very good thing to have in about a week or so when August opens up.

<RICKY>

stormie_skies · #134 Postby **stormie_skies** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 5:02 pm

This is the season that never ends....it goes on and on my friend..... :roll:

HouTX.....I don't see how anyone can be 100% confident of a forecast concerning 91L until we have an LLC over water.... lets see what the upper air conditions look like then, and go from there..... :wink:

Opal storm · #135 Postby **Opal storm** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 5:02 pm

TWC just said they do not expect this to develop into anything and it has shown NO signs of organization.

Typical weather channel :roll:

#136 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 5:03 pm

well i noticed yesterday they were saying the BOC then last night and today they are saying southern gulf... to me it looks like the center is trying to form on the northern part of the convection

stormie_skies · #137 Postby **stormie_skies** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 5:03 pm

Opal storm wrote:TWC just said they do not expect this to develop into anything and it has shown NO signs of organization.

Typical weather channel

Whatever the folks at TWC are drinkin', me thinks they should pass it around.....after all, its Friday.... 8-)

HouTXmetro · #138 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 5:05 pm

stormie_skies wrote:This is the season that never ends....it goes on and on my friend.....

HouTX.....I don't see how anyone can be 100% confident of a forecast concerning 91L until we have an LLC over water.... lets see what the upper air conditions look like then, and go from there.....

Well the language has changed. Earilier they were stating the BOC. Now they are saying extreme NW carribean and SW Gulf. To me thats an indication they beleive the center will form further NE. I could be wrong though. However, it appears to be a good circulation on the Northside of the Yucatan already.

Derek Ortt · #139 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 5:13 pm

based upon passed seasons, the lull may come in mid <b>DECEMBER</b>

since 1998, there have been 5 storms that have either formed, or lasted into December

if this trend continues, maybe a slight extention of the hurricane season would be warranted

Normandy · #140 Postby **Normandy** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 5:15 pm

I dont see an LLC near Belize....can anyone point it out to me?

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