91L Invest

[deltadog03]

hey, where did they models exit this wave's "center" at?? anyone know? and where is a rough estimate of where a "center" is now???

[Astro_man92]

based upon passed seasons, the lull may come in mid <b>DECEMBER</b>

since 1998, there have been 5 storms that have either formed, or lasted into December

if this trend continues, maybe a slight extention of the hurricane season would be warranted

i think they should now just to be safe

[Ivanhater]

probably need a professional to answer where the center might form, but the banding and curvature seem to be near the northern part of the yucatan, i think we will see an obvious center tomorrow

[Brent]

[angelwing]

we all better become really close friends with Starbucks cause coffee is going to be a very good thing to have in about a week or so when August opens up.

<RICKY>

Dunkin Donuts is better, more jolt for your buck

[Ivanhater]

we all better become really close friends with Starbucks cause coffee is going to be a very good thing to have in about a week or so when August opens up.

<RICKY>

Dunkin Donuts is better, more jolt for your buck

[Agua]

hey, where did they models exit this wave's "center" at?? anyone know? and where is a rough estimate of where a "center" is now???

Exit: generally, around 91-92W, 19N. As to where a center is, I don't perceive one.

[deltadog03]

hey, where did they models exit this wave's "center" at?? anyone know? and where is a rough estimate of where a "center" is now???

Exit: generally, around 91-92W, 19N. As to where a center is, I don't perceive one.

ok, thanks...

[southerngale]

:eek:

What's that for? You don't too often. lol

[Brent]

:eek:

What's that for? You don't too often. lol

Seventh named storm before the end of July=

LOL

I don't see it coming to the Northern Gulf though(Middle Texas eastward)... I guess South Texas is possible however.

[WeatherEmperor]

:eek:

What's that for? You don't too often. lol

Seventh named storm before the end of July=

LOL

I don't see it coming to the Northern Gulf though(Middle Texas eastward)... I guess South Texas is possible however.

I agree. its crazy isnt it??

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

ok, been gone for a bit...i just looked at the last couple of SAT pics for invest before the VIS goes nighty nite....and there is some explosive Tstorms developing just south of cozumel....i wonder if this is where something might form?? also, talked to one of my met friends and he said this is the one to watch that the ridge will be pushing eastward...late sunday....any thoughts??

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it was not for the Yuctan this would likelly be a depression by morning. But because of it, we will have to see how it looks like when it gets back into the BOC tomarrow morning.

[cycloneye]

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO
SWD ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST ALONG 88W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS GAINED CONSIDERABLE CURVATURE
THROUGH THE DAY AND SFC PRESSURES HAVE DROPPED WITH A 1011 MB
LOW FORMING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR OFFSHORE CAYS OF BELIZE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...NE YUCATAN...AND S/CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 18N-24N
BETWEEN 83W-92W AND THEN STRETCHES S/SE OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS TO NE HONDURAS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
ADJACENT TO THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE W TIP OF CUBA AND IS PROVIDING
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THIS AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE OVER
THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT MORNING AT WHICH POINT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...ROUGHLY IN THE NEXT 36
HRS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THEN TAKES THE SYSTEM NW TOWARDS
NE MEXICO OR EXTREME S TEXAS BY SUN AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

[Huckster]

TWC just said they do not expect this to develop into anything and it has shown NO signs of organization.

Typical weather channel

TWC is worthless these days. I enjoy looking back at some of the old TWC stuff I recorded on video though, as well as their old documentaries. Can you imagine if Storm2k had its own channel? Now that would be awesome and informative. TWC likes sunny skies and puffy cumulus clouds, and talking about PAST storms. I was surprised at the coverage they actually gave Dennis; it was more than I expected.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here is what I see for 91L tonight. The old center around 18 north/88 west is fading away....Kind of like tropical depression 3 did, when the LLC formed to the north. The new center most likely at this moment a MLC is around 21 north/88.5/89. The outflow is perfect with a Upper level high centered right over it. The convection is reforming back over the BOC. Which is a classic signs of development for the BOC.

This area should move west-northwest. Which takes it into the Gulf of Mexico/BOC with in the next 12 to 18 hour.

The Gfs/Cmc/Nogaps all show it developing making landfall south of Texas around 56 to 60 hours. Maybe a weak tropical storm.

[Lowpressure]

Here is what I see for 91L tonight. The old center around 18 north/88 west is fading away....Kind of like tropical depression 3 did, when the LLC formed to the north. The new center most likely at this moment a MLC is around 21 north/88.5/89. The outflow is perfect with a Upper level high centered right over it. The convection is reforming back over the BOC. Which is a classic signs of development for the BOC.

This area should move west-northwest. Which takes it into the Gulf of Mexico/BOC with in the next 12 to 18 hour.

The Gfs/Cmc/Nogaps all show it developing making landfall south of Texas around 56 to 60 hours. Maybe a weak tropical storm.

Matt, sounds like a good assessment of the situation. It does look good this evening with banding. BOC temp profiles are untouched. I would like to see water temps of N Mexico to see if Emily upwelled during her loop.

[deltadog03]

I know this is the NAM...but, hey, lets see what she says...lol

http://www.meteor.wisc.edu/weatherdata/ ... 00_h84.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

All I can say is the LLC/MLC is half way through the Yuctan. In should be out by the next 12 hours. Outflow has increased greatly over the western quad over the BOC. I say the chances look pretty good overall that we maybe looking at something tomarrow afternoon.

Ths is looking at visible...

[Ivanhater]

All I can say is the LLC/MLC is half way through the Yuctan. In should be out by the next 12 hours. Outflow has increased greatly over the western quad over the BOC. I say the chances look pretty good overall that we maybe looking at something tomarrow afternoon.

so does the NHC