This is interesting...

[DoctorHurricane2003]

This is just for statistical purposes and I am seeking comments. This is NOT a projection in anyway, but it is meant to help realize how busy this season *could* be (although it is not likely it will be this busy).

I did a simple math problem last night involving past statistics and this current year...I invite all to comment, please

Okay, seasonally for this year we have had so far:

June: 2 storms
July: 4 storms

Now it looks like it is highly possible we will see at least 1, probably 2 more storms before the end of July. One from the Gulf of Mexico, and one from an easterly wave yet to develop (At the rate that we have been seeing at least 1 storm form each weekend).

So that total brings July to 6.

Now here is the interesting part:

August's record is 9 named storms...set last year total....with 8 forming into named systems within the month. If we just match the total 8 for August we have:

June: 2 storms
July: 6 storms
August: 8 storms
Total: 16 storms

We would be starting September with RITA.

Now if we match the number of storms from August with that of September...that's 8 more storms. (2002 had 10 total storms in September....9 of which became named storms within the month)

June: 2 storms
July: 6 storms
August: 8 storms
September: 8 storms
Total: 24 storms

We already ran out of names, in this case..

So what to do with October? In 1995, October had 5 total storms, 4 of which became named storms within the month. If we had 4 more storms:

June: 2 storms
July: 6 storms
August: 8 storms
September: 8 storms
October: 4 storms
Total: 28 storms

Ick.....and for November, the record is 3 storms set in 2001:

June: 2 storms
July: 6 storms
August: 8 storms
September: 8 storms
October: 4 storms
November: 3 storms
Total: 31 storms

And there has been at least 1 storm in December for the past few years, and it wouldn't be surprising to see it happen again being that there is no El Nino expected to form:

June: 2 storms
July: 6 storms
August: 8 storms
September: 8 storms
October: 4 storms
November: 3 storms
December: 1 storm
Total: 32 storms

32 storms.......could you imagine it? It's not out of the realm of possibilities......although it is highly unlikely we'll get *that* high. (That would take us to 'Mu' on the Greek Alphabet) Just remember...we have shattered the records for named storms so far....and there is no reason for the season to end short, as there is no El Nino...the key will be the MJO oscillations and how long they will last, as well as how much of an influence they will exert.

Comments welcomed.

[boca]

All I have to say is wow!!!!

[Lowpressure]

Recon better be getting their oil changes at a good price, that would equate to a bunch of flight miles.

[HouTXmetro]

Wow, Rita sounds like she would cause some historic destruction. Wouldn't want to be in her path.

[boca]

DoctorHurricane2003 what happened to the lull after Emily.

[EDR1222]

It will be interesting to see if we get a big lull in August. Although it appears that won't be the case.

I was a little surprised to see a trough( the one that may pick up Franklyn) push this far south for Mid July.

Not sure if that will have an influence later on or not. Probably not, but there could be alot of fish storms if the trough start doing that which wouldn't be a bad thing!

[Hyperstorm]

VERY interesting research Doctor!

However, I HIGHLY doubt we'll ever reach that high.

My extrapolation for the rest of the season being that it stays active, but not EXTREMELY active would be:

5-6 August storms
5-6 September storms
2-3 October storms
1 November storm

If we actually see these numbers for the rest of the season, we'd STILL finish way ahead of normal and near-record levels: 19-22 named storms!

Historic season for sure even with these more reasonable numbers...

[cycloneye]

Great stats there doc.

[hurricanetrack]

That is an amazing analysis. If August saw 6 NS and Sept. had 8 with Oct and Nov. combining another 3, we would still use up all the names plus some....let's go for it...I cannot wait to see TWC, CNN, Fox and the Big Three have to explain to people what tropical storm Alpha is....

[Derek Ortt]

just wone question,

would alpha be retired if it causes severe damage?

[otowntiger]

I think most people will agree that this will be, as it has been, a busier than average season. However, it is my considered opinion that the season will not set records for total number of storms. I think that things will wind down a little earlier than usual keeping things from getting out of hand numbers wise. Of course all it takes is one bad storm in your area to make the season memorable.

BTW, what will be the effect of the large dust storm blowing across the Atlantic in the near term? I believe I read somewhere that it does not provide the best conditions for development.

[Brent]

WOW... just WOW. I cannot imagine that storms!!

[Hyperstorm]

just wone question,

would alpha be retired if it causes severe damage?

This same question I've always had. How will they retire a greek alphabet name? If another 21+ named storm year occurs in the future, will they use it again? I definitely don't think using the greek alphabet is the right method.

Using next year's list of names seems much more feasible...

[WeatherEmperor]

wow are you insane. lol gosh in that case I can only pray that destruction will be kept to a minimum.

<RICKY>

[Andrew92]

Wow, Rita sounds like she would cause some historic destruction. Wouldn't want to be in her path.

I don't like the sound of that name either. Even though Gert was my big one, I may very well change it to Rita. I've had bad feelings about that name for a couple years actually if you can believe that.

-Andrew92

[Ivanhater]

i think ophelia is gonna be a big one

[HollynLA]

Thanks for taking the time to post this, it's quite interesting to say the least. I have to wonder if this is going to become the "norm" though or is it just part of a pattern. Will there be any coast left in the US?

[Derek Ortt]

wont ophelia somehow manage a suicide just like she did in Hamlet?

lol, a little Shapespeare humor

[wxwatcher91]

I was fooling around with some stats myself... didnt look into what you found so that was quite interesting indeed...

first and most simple: 6 named storms, 52 days of hurricane season so far= one named storm every 8 to 9 days... 183 days of hurricane season= about 22 named storms... and so that's not considering the increase of storms during August and September...

[Anonymous]

wont ophelia somehow manage a suicide just like she did in Hamlet?

lol, a little Shapespeare humor

Everytime I hear that name I think of Jamie Lee Curtis in Trading Places. I fear instead of our big "C" and "F" named August storms, and our "I" named September storms..."I" and "K" may be out big August storms, and "N" may be our big September.