Will flare up in the NW caribbean become a depression?

[cajungal]

Our met said that land is inhibiting its development right now. But, once it emerges in the southern GOM it can really spin up quickly. But, it should take a path similar to Emily and only be a threat to northern Mexico or Texas. It would not even have enough time to become anything more than a TS.

Which met mentioned it?

John Gumm on Channel 4 New Orleans news. And Bob Breck Channel 8 New Orleans news.

[Hyperstorm]

As I type, the area of greatest cyclonic turning appears to have concentrated near the northern tip of the Yucatan. That's also the area with the best anticyclone where it is centralized. It appears that the area I was watching earlier will be the one to watch as it exits the Yucatan this evening. This would only mean that the models will have to be initialized further north, with their respective tracks being shifted MUCH further north. All of this is telling me that a Texas threat of a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane is becoming increasingly probable...

[Sanibel]

The surface turning looked further south on visible. Though it could reform a new center when this weak...

[HouTXmetro]

As I type, the area of greatest cyclonic turning appears to have concentrated near the northern tip of the Yucatan. That's also the area with the best anticyclone where it is centralized. It appears that the area I was watching earlier will be the one to watch as it exits the Yucatan this evening. This would only mean that the models will have to be initialized further north, with their respective tracks being shifted MUCH further north. All of this is telling me that a Texas threat of a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane is becoming increasingly probable...

thinking the same thing.

[JamesFromMaine2]

When it enters the GOM couldn't it bomb like Dennis and Emily did? I know that with both Dennis and Emily they were already a Hurricane to start with but wouldn't it be possible to see this turn into a cat 2 atleast?

[Hyperstorm]

When it enters the GOM couldn't it bomb like Dennis and Emily did? I know that with both Dennis and Emily they were already a Hurricane to start with but wouldn't it be possible to see this turn into a cat 2 atleast?

Not likely with the current steady forward motion. It will move inland by the beginning of next week (Monday/Tuesday). It would have to slow down to less than 10 mph (not expected) for it to go higher than a category 1 hurricane.

[Lowpressure]

When it enters the GOM couldn't it bomb like Dennis and Emily did? I know that with both Dennis and Emily they were already a Hurricane to start with but wouldn't it be possible to see this turn into a cat 2 atleast?

Nothing is out of the question, but previous Hurricanes that can stay with the core intact tend to strenghten quicker. Time is usually the inhibiting factor in the western gulf or the BOC. Make no mistake though, big hurricanes can come from this area. In this case as others have pointed out LLC may form more north than first anticipated.

[southerngale]

As I type, the area of greatest cyclonic turning appears to have concentrated near the northern tip of the Yucatan. That's also the area with the best anticyclone where it is centralized. It appears that the area I was watching earlier will be the one to watch as it exits the Yucatan this evening. This would only mean that the models will have to be initialized further north, with their respective tracks being shifted MUCH further north. All of this is telling me that a Texas threat of a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane is becoming increasingly probable...

I would think the ridge would still keep it on a track toward Mexico/deep South Texas though. I'm not sure how much further north you mean, but it can't plow through a ridge, can it?

[Hyperstorm]

As I type, the area of greatest cyclonic turning appears to have concentrated near the northern tip of the Yucatan. That's also the area with the best anticyclone where it is centralized. It appears that the area I was watching earlier will be the one to watch as it exits the Yucatan this evening. This would only mean that the models will have to be initialized further north, with their respective tracks being shifted MUCH further north. All of this is telling me that a Texas threat of a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane is becoming increasingly probable...

I would think the ridge would still keep it on a track toward Mexico/deep South Texas though. I'm not sure how much further north you mean, but it can't plow through a ridge, can it?

Take a look at this:



They have a low pressure center initialized just to the west of Belize. Imagine that a new low forms near the northern tip of the Yucatan....It will only mean that the projected track from the models will begin in the northern Yucatan. If we extrapolate their forecast, it will bring it exactly where you said....Extreme Northern Mexico or South Texas.

[deltadog03]

right assuming that low comes out down there...but, yeah great point...the most convection is on the northern part of the yucatan penn right?? no, it can't plow through the ridge...but, i am not sure how strong that ridge is...franklin gives me great clues to that...but, anyway, we will see...i still think the northern gulf can't take there eyes of this yet...

[Steve]

One interesting point in the discussion (saw Pro Met Clark on cfhc made it a point to note) was the "Very Favorable Conditions". As he said over there, that's not text that often accompanies a wave.

Steve

[Swimdude]

Well, there is very favorable conditions... Unfortunately, not over land.

[Sanibel]

91L flaring deep convection. Potential energy is obvious...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The center is just on the Coast around 18.2 north. It is moving west-northwest. It should be over the BOC with in 3 to 4 hours. Still no flaring up of the convection to the west. Outflow looks good. I think with this system it will pull that convection over the Eastern side over it to wrap.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Look at that shear just off the coast of the Yuctan. The shear maps show it at 30 to 40 knots. That upper high better get there.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The center appears pretty broad. But a buoys/ship report off about 80 miles off the coast shows a north wind. Also there by my best thinking the center is around 18.7/18.9 around 90.2. It appears to be moving west-northwest. Outflow looks good. In the history of this system tells me that the convection over the eastern side will wrap back over the LLC/MLC by morning as it moves back into the BOC.

The models then turn it more northwestward after that. But they only have it over the BOC for about 36 hours.

That is the latest...

[Hurricaneman]

It may, but it might have to fight shear