91L Invest

[KatDaddy]

Hmmmmmmm

Looks to have potential for development. Thinking this will be much more N than expected. TX and LA should watch this system over the next few days............just a hunch.....we shall see

[clfenwi]

00Z limited area models

080
WHXX01 KWBC 230033
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050723 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050723 0000 050723 1200 050724 0000 050724 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 89.2W 19.5N 91.5W 20.4N 93.9W 21.2N 96.2W
BAMM 18.3N 89.2W 19.2N 91.5W 20.2N 93.8W 21.2N 96.1W
A98E 18.3N 89.2W 19.4N 91.0W 20.6N 92.9W 21.9N 94.9W
LBAR 18.3N 89.2W 19.3N 91.5W 20.5N 94.1W 21.9N 96.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050725 0000 050726 0000 050727 0000 050728 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.0N 98.5W 22.5N 102.1W 21.7N 105.2W 20.9N 108.5W
BAMM 22.2N 98.1W 23.9N 101.6W 24.7N 104.0W 25.0N 106.6W
A98E 23.3N 97.4W 27.2N 101.8W 29.9N 103.3W 31.3N 102.0W
LBAR 23.5N 99.6W 26.8N 103.2W 29.5N 104.4W 31.3N 104.3W
SHIP 51KTS 61KTS 68KTS 73KTS
DSHP 43KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 89.2W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 87.4W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 85.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[Opal storm]

Hmmmmmmm

Looks to have potential for development. Thinking this will be much more N than expected. TX and LA should watch this system over the next few days............just a hunch.....we shall see

With it moving WNW it's not a threat to LA and barely a threat to TX.More than likely it will go to Mexico.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It only gives it 36 hours over water. It makes it a tropical storm with 45 knots. Come on Gert.

[WeatherEmperor]

Hmmmmmmm

Looks to have potential for development. Thinking this will be much more N than expected. TX and LA should watch this system over the next few days............just a hunch.....we shall see

With it moving WNW it's not a threat to LA and barely a threat to TX.More than likely it will go to Mexico.

yeah as of right now it looks that way to me as well.

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

That system looks like it is cookin'...

[Derek Ortt]

ships cannot be used yet

it assumes that we already have a depression, which we do not have

[Lowpressure]

ships cannot be used yet

it assumes that we already have a depression, which we do not have

Agreed but presentation looks good with nice banding starting. I would say it will not take long once in the BOC. The ultimate LLC location will be key.

[southerngale]

ok, been gone for a bit...i just looked at the last couple of SAT pics for invest before the VIS goes nighty nite....and there is some explosive Tstorms developing just south of cozumel....i wonder if this is where something might form?? also, talked to one of my met friends and he said this is the one to watch that the ridge will be pushing eastward...late sunday....any thoughts??

I don't know about the ridge pushing eastward, but even if it does, 91L or whatever it is by then, will likely already be inland in Mexico or South Texas. I don't think it will be coming up here. From tonight's 8:05pm edt discussion:

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE OVER
THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT MORNING AT WHICH POINT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...ROUGHLY IN THE NEXT 36
HRS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THEN TAKES THE SYSTEM NW TOWARDS
NE MEXICO OR EXTREME S TEXAS BY SUN AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

[deltadog03]

yeah, your right...but, we do not know where and if the LLC will form and come off....there is just WAAAY to many ifs...who knows what is going to happen with this...

[Kludge]

The 2 key factors will likely be 1) the formation point of the LLC and 2) the strength it gains after coming off Tampico. A weak storm with a LLC forming deep into the BOC means this would go into Mexico...otherwise....?

[deltadog03]

man, there is some really big blow up of thunderstorms coming very near cozumel.....there also seems to be atleast some rotation in there....its moving N or NW...zoom in on that area and animate it....any other thoughts...someone might have mentioned this before...sorry...Great obs!!!

[HouTXmetro]

man, there is some really big blow up of thunderstorms coming very near cozumel.....there also seems to be atleast some rotation in there....its moving N or NW...zoom in on that area and animate it....any other thoughts...someone might have mentioned this before...sorry...Great obs!!!

Are you sure you see a circulation there? I do see the MLC is already exiting the the Norther Yucatan coast. The question is will the convection follow.

[deltadog03]

its VERY hard to tell....im not sure...it looks like it but, then again..it could be the eyes...there tired..lol...yeah i did see the MLC exiting over the Yuc...penn...the northern side..Is this what the models where saying would come off of belize??

[HouTXmetro]

its VERY hard to tell....im not sure...it looks like it but, then again..it could be the eyes...there tired..lol...yeah i did see the MLC exiting over the Yuc...penn...the northern side..Is this what the models where saying would come off of belize??

If it is they are way off

[HouTXmetro]

On another note, the convection flare up you mentioned is much closer to where the models intialized the center.

[tailgater]

Looking at the wind field the circ. and lowest pressure still seem to on the northern coast Belize

[Brent]

10:30 TWO:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.

[HouTXmetro]

Despite the convection diminishing over the MLC it has been persistent over the last couple of days.

[Swimdude]

Goodness... Is anyone thinking about how horrible it would be if this system develops and makes landfall where Emily did? Even if it's a minimal tropical storm, which seems like a likely scenario, it would just mean more rain for that part of Mexico and Texas.