91L Invest

Hurricaneman · #181 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:01 am

This system has some potential

Derek Ortt · #182 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:18 am

conditions in the BOC may not be as favorable as they are now. There is a big UL that isn't moving out of the way located just west of the BOC, producing strong southerly shear in the area.

Often, when there is a large anti-cyclone over a TC, there is a UL that it will have to contend with eventually as it moves to the west

TexasSam · #183 Postby **TexasSam** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:29 am

Looks like I'm going to have a wet Sunday, and Monday. Heck my yard grew more in the last week than it has all this season.

HouTXmetro · #184 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:31 am

Derek Ortt wrote:conditions in the BOC may not be as favorable as they are now. There is a big UL that isn't moving out of the way located just west of the BOC, producing strong southerly shear in the area.

Often, when there is a large anti-cyclone over a TC, there is a UL that it will have to contend with eventually as it moves to the west

If you are talking about the ULL located in NE MX, south of Texas then it's moving west at a good clip.

HouTXmetro · #185 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:32 am

TexasSam wrote:Looks like I'm going to have a wet Sunday, and Monday. Heck my yard grew more in the last week than it has all this season.

My yard is turning into a jungle. Hopefully the ground dries up enough for me to cut it in the afternoon. That's assuming the weather cooperates.

Derek Ortt · #186 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 1:10 am

may not move fast enough

did run the MM5 on the area just now and the results were not all that impressive. Did form a closed surface circulation, but after Dennis and Emily, this one didn't amount to all that much

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #187 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 1:25 am

The low is staying over the Yuctan for longer then I thought it would. The shear is only slowly moving westward. From 91 to 93.5 over the last 6 hours the core of the shear. I will have to see in the morning how things look.

clfenwi · #188 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 1:39 am

799
WHXX01 KWBC 230612
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050723 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050723 0600 050723 1800 050724 0600 050724 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.0N 89.6W 20.1N 91.7W 21.0N 93.8W 21.9N 96.0W
BAMM 19.0N 89.6W 20.2N 91.8W 21.3N 93.9W 22.5N 96.1W
A98E 19.0N 89.6W 20.2N 91.0W 21.3N 92.7W 22.4N 94.7W
LBAR 19.0N 89.6W 20.0N 91.5W 21.2N 93.8W 22.5N 96.5W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050725 0600 050726 0600 050727 0600 050728 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.7N 97.9W 23.8N 101.1W 24.2N 103.4W 24.8N 105.9W
BAMM 23.8N 97.9W 26.2N 100.9W 27.9N 102.4W 29.2N 103.8W
A98E 23.6N 96.8W 27.3N 100.6W 30.1N 101.8W 31.9N 100.3W
LBAR 24.1N 99.0W 27.4N 102.4W 30.5N 103.2W 33.7N 102.2W
SHIP 58KTS 67KTS 73KTS 75KTS
DSHP 51KTS 29KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 89.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 17.7N LONM12 = 88.3W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 86.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Anonymous · #189 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 2:01 am

Things look good for this to deepen quick over the BOC.

HouTXmetro · #190 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:10 am

MLC or vortex already over in S Gulf. I see a rotation has moved just NNW of the NW Yucatan.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #191 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:17 am

There has been no oreganizion over night. With the LLC/MLC still around 90 west over the Yuctan. It is looking more likely that recon will be canceled.

The chances of this thing becoming a tropical cyclone has to do.

1# If that upper level shear to the west centered near 94 west moves out of the way.

2# If it can form rising/convection over any center.

3# Time over water which the models give it 36 hours.

So tropical cyclone formation doe's not look very good at this moment.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #192 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:07 am

The system is right on the coast by this data showing a north/east-northeast to a east wind. Right to the south of this station.

Wind from the E (090 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT)
Visibility 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1013 hPa)
ob MMCP 230345Z 09008KT 7SM SCT040 25/24 A2994 RMK 8/500

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest Midnight (4) Jul 23 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1013) E 9
11 PM (3) Jul 22 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1012) ENE 12 light drizzle
10 PM (2) Jul 22 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1012) N 7
9 PM (1) Jul 22 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.89 (1012) NNE 7 rain
8 PM (0) No Data

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCP.html

#193 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:11 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:There has been no oreganizion over night. With the LLC/MLC still around 90 west over the Yuctan. It is looking more likely that recon will be canceled.

The chances of this thing becoming a tropical cyclone has to do.

1# If that upper level shear to the west centered near 94 west moves out of the way.

2# If it can form rising/convection over any center.

3# Time over water which the models give it 36 hours.

So tropical cyclone formation doe's not look very good at this moment.

I guess all that means is that once over water it's gonna bomb, it would be a depression now if it nearer water IMHO

#194 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:11 am

Don't think this has been posted yet.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230902
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO HONDURAS...BELIZE...
GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A NOAA RESEARCH MISSION IN
THE WAVE OVERNIGHT INDICATED THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS WINDS TO NEAR 35
MPH IN A FEW SQUALLS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATER TODAY...WHERE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR PERHAPS A TROPICAL STORM TO DEVELOP. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #195 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:17 am

This is likely a sharp wave because obs to the southwest show no northwest wind.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCE.html

Also to note is that the pressure near the low pressure is 1013 millibars. While pressure over the Eastern Yuctan is 1011 millibars.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCM.html

Nimbus · #196 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:30 am

Some range in track depending on which end of the wave develops.
No big flare up in convection yet.

#197 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:41 am

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO
SWD ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST ALONG 88W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS GAINED CONSIDERABLE CURVATURE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND SFC A 1011 MB LOW HAS FORMED ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...NE YUCATAN...AND S/CNTRL GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 83W-93W AND THEN STRETCHES S/SE
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO NE HONDURAS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED ADJACENT TO THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE W TIP OF CUBA
AND IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA TODAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY AT WHICH
POINT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS.
I don't know if was posted earlier or not, but reading between the lines sure sounds like the NHC thinks this is gonna go once over water.
This from the 2am discussion.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #198 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:07 am

The radar shows nothing...
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-saba.jpg

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #199 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:41 am

If Gert forms...

Gert 1999
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1992 No G storm!!!
1986 No G storm!!!

Gert 1981
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

The seasons that did not see the G storm only had 6 named storms...

#200 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:50 am

HouTXmetro wrote:MLC or vortex already over in S Gulf. I see a rotation has moved just NNW of the NW Yucatan.

I believe you're looking at cirrus clouds NNW-NW of the Yucatan. You can't find a surface circulation on IR imagery. Have to wait until visible imagery is available. The center of the wave is farther south over the central Yucatan this morning. Looks like the area to watch as of 7:30am CDT is near 20N/90.5W - just about to move offshore.

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