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Derek Ortt

#21 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Jul 23, 2005 11:01 am

study the conditions that lead to tropical cyclogenesis (or possibly in this case, the conditions that prevent cyclogenesis)
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#22 Postby HouTXmetro » Sat Jul 23, 2005 11:02 am

What a waste of air and precipitation. NEXT

The circulation over water is getting more impressive, but I also think I see one still over the Yuc on the eastern siide of the convection flareup. Still too disorgnized and running out of time.
Last edited by HouTXmetro on Sat Jul 23, 2005 11:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#23 Postby jasons2k » Sat Jul 23, 2005 11:20 am

Looks to me a LLC is finally getting together near 19.5 and 92.5. It won't have much room at all to develop, so good news for the recently struck Emily folks. Looking at the 500mb charts it will stay way south of there in my opinion.
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#24 Postby HouTXmetro » Sat Jul 23, 2005 11:23 am

jschlitz wrote:Looks to me a LLC is finally getting together near 19.5 and 92.5. It won't have much room at all to develop, so good news for the recently struck Emily folks. Looking at the 500mb charts it will stay way south of there in my opinion.


The circulation over water is getting more impressive, but I also think I see one still over the Yuc on the eastern siide of the convection flareup. Still too disorganized and running out of time.
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#25 Postby jasons2k » Sat Jul 23, 2005 11:31 am

HouTXmetro wrote:
jschlitz wrote:Looks to me a LLC is finally getting together near 19.5 and 92.5. It won't have much room at all to develop, so good news for the recently struck Emily folks. Looking at the 500mb charts it will stay way south of there in my opinion.


The circulation over water is getting more impressive, but I also think I see one still over the Yuc on the eastern siide of the convection flareup. Still too disorganized and running out of time.


Anything in that region that develops has nowhere to go but West or WNW for the next 72 hours IMHO.
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#26 Postby dhweather » Sat Jul 23, 2005 11:42 am

It's a broad area of low pressure at best.
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#27 Postby clfenwi » Sat Jul 23, 2005 11:55 am

NOAA2 just launched from MacDill AFB, headed southwest, its obs are carrying the header 'SUSPECT'...
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#28 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:09 pm

clfenwi wrote:NOAA2 just launched from MacDill AFB, headed southwest, its obs are carrying the header 'SUSPECT'...


Those obs will be the same type as the ones that are reporting for Franklin Example a vortex message etc?
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#29 Postby clfenwi » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:
clfenwi wrote:NOAA2 just launched from MacDill AFB, headed southwest, its obs are carrying the header 'SUSPECT'...


Those obs will be the same type as the ones that are reporting for Franklin Example a vortex message etc?


That would appear to be the case, yes... I'll keep an eye out for them...
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#30 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:23 pm

clfenwi wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
clfenwi wrote:NOAA2 just launched from MacDill AFB, headed southwest, its obs are carrying the header 'SUSPECT'...


Those obs will be the same type as the ones that are reporting for Franklin Example a vortex message etc?


That would appear to be the case, yes... I'll keep an eye out for them...


Ok if something comes out post all the info in this thread.
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#31 Postby clfenwi » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:
clfenwi wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
clfenwi wrote:NOAA2 just launched from MacDill AFB, headed southwest, its obs are carrying the header 'SUSPECT'...


Those obs will be the same type as the ones that are reporting for Franklin Example a vortex message etc?


That would appear to be the case, yes... I'll keep an eye out for them...


Ok if something comes out post all the info in this thread.


Will do...
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#32 Postby Sanibel » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:37 pm

The disturbance is flaring over Yucatan even though it is moving slowly. A sign of big potential once it gets back over water...
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#33 Postby clfenwi » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:40 pm

This is the most recent minob

170000 2617 08504 15955 +1078 134004 -010 -174 130004 012 002

NOAA planes use a different format than the AF planes

Format is time / latitude / longitude / pressure altitude (in feet) / D-Value / Wind direction and speed / Temp / Dewpoint / max wind speed (10 sec avg) / wind speed recorded by SFMR / rainfall rate in mm/hr...
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#34 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:44 pm

Sanibel wrote:The disturbance is flaring over Yucatan even though it is moving slowly. A sign of big potential once it gets back over water...


yeah, just saw that one over the eastern pennisular sanibel??? i am wondering about that one too
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#35 Postby clfenwi » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:57 pm

Observation Number:01
Time transmitted: 1732Z
Position: 27.5 North // 83.7 West
Sea Level Pressure: 1019 millibars
Surface Temperature / Dew point depression:28.4/4.3
Surface wind speed and direction: 9 knots // 285
1000 millibar height: 167 meters
1000 millibar winds: 9 knots // 290
925 millibar height: 853 meters
850 millibar height:1585 meters
700 millibar height: 3225 meters
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#36 Postby Sanibel » Sat Jul 23, 2005 1:02 pm

Disregard. The center is in the very lower part of BOC and looks too weak to amount to much...
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#37 Postby clfenwi » Sat Jul 23, 2005 1:24 pm

most recent minob

180000 2215 08625 11187 +0787 135020 +081 -147 132021 019 002
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#38 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 23, 2005 1:37 pm

I put the sticky again.
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#39 Postby clfenwi » Sat Jul 23, 2005 1:39 pm

Observation Number:02
Time transmitted: 1809Z
Sea level Pressure: 1018 mb
Surface Temperature/ Dewpoint Depression: 28.4/4.1
Surface winds:13 knots // 090
1000 millibar height: 161 meters
1000 millibar temperature/DD:27.0/3.9
1000 millibar winds: 17 knots // 090
925 millibar height:847 meters
925 millibar temperature/DD: 22.8/7.0
925 millibar winds: 16 knots // 110
850 millibar height: 1578 meters
850 millibar temperature/DD: 17.8/5.0
850 millibar winds: 16 knots // 110
700 millibar height: 3216 meters
700 millibar temperature/DD: 9.6/17
700 millibar winds: 19 knots // 150
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#40 Postby Normandy » Sat Jul 23, 2005 1:40 pm

Ehh recon is wasting their time on this one.
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