UNOFFICIAL...Franklin #5; near Bermuda; briefly cane then wk

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

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Quote Nencweather.com:
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Forecast 5:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... nklin.html

Forward speed remains a tough issue. I tried to blend everything together and get a good compromise, but given the divergence of guidance, it's tough. To a hurricane briefly in the next 24 hours, followed by weakening to a weak tropical storm by the end of the forecast period; considering the margin of error at that time, it may not be there at all in 120 hours, or exist only as a swirl; whatever the case, shear will be tough.

Scott

[jhamps10]

what's your opinion on possiblity of Frank making a loop

[ncweatherwizard]

Slim to none; it's close to being fully embedded into the upper winds from the trough right now.

Scott

[chris_fit]

Slim to none; it's close to being fully embedded into the upper winds from the trough right now.

Scott

It's also crawling SOUTH of due east.

[jhamps10]

and I do mean crawling south of east

[ncweatherwizard]

Well south of due east is really just a matter of trivia right now I think.
For all major intents and purposes, it's moving due east, but that's not the important issue here. The trough is still deepening a little, and is continuing to weaken the ridge, so the current slow just south of due east motion is certainly reasonable. Expect to see the storm lift within the next 24 hours.

Scott

[WeatherEmperor]

Well south of due east is really just a matter of trivia right now I think.
For all major intents and purposes, it's moving due east, but that's not the important issue here. The trough is still deepening a little, and is continuing to weaken the ridge, so the current slow just south of due east motion is certainly reasonable. Expect to see the storm lift within the next 24 hours.

Scott

yeah your reasoning seems right on. i see no way to disagree with you.

<RICKY>