Why Franklin may LOOP after all

[jhamps10]

No offense, but why would you want a tropical storm/hurricane?

[mike18xx]

(...)

[gpickett00]

Someone might want a hurricane to hit their area because they're cool. That is the reason that everyone is on this forum. Hurricanes are just cool. I'm sure that almost everyone on here has wondered what it would feel like to be in a hurricane. Why else would there be storm chasers?

Of course it sucks when a hurricane hits and it wrecks your house. But if you come out of it with no damage, and you got to stand in 80 MPH winds you experienced something that most people haven't.

[mike18xx]

Can you guys have that argument somewhere else? Thanks.

[gpickett00]

Oh come on, thats what a public forum is for

[The Big Dog]

Of course it sucks when a hurricane hits and it wrecks your house. But if you come out of it with no damage, and you got to stand in 80 MPH winds you experienced something that most people haven't.

Yeah ok... but even if you do survive it with no damage, the hassles afterwards are just not worth the trouble. Gas shortages. Empty store shelves. No traffic lights.

Oh yeah, forgot the big one -- no power!!

[Ivanhater]

omg i just came back and saw the satellite loop of franklin, i gave up on him yesterday, it sure doesnt look like its moving off with the trough, if it is in the process of the "loop", a lot of people are in for one big shock

[mike18xx]

Oh come on, thats what a public forum is for

Please respect my wishes, as this is my thread. The ethics of "drooling for" land-striking cat-5s have been debated endlessly, and anyone who's been around has seen the same-o'-same-o' a million times.

[gpickett00]

ok you got me on the no power one. that really sucks. we were out of power for 5 days after Frances last year. otherwise it was a neat experience

[mike18xx]

You may all observe that a classic "ring of fire" heat-dome high is building up over the central/eastern US; note thunderstorms in southwestern Texas heading west, while sauna-dewpoint-fed MCCs prowl the northern plains and Great Lakes states; such a pattern, if it snags a tropical system, will sling it underneath across the Gulf states (or GoM), usually at a brisk pace once westward movement commences.

[jhamps10]

It looks like it IS starting to make a loop. I guess at 5 we will see what NHC says.

[Sanibel]

Predictaguesstimate: The short-wave trough (and associated mid-level easterlies) will rapidly exit the east-coast, leaving a lingering horizontally-draped front off-shore; this front will quickly modify and wash out (it has already done so on land, where it can no longer be discerned in the southeastern states. In approx 24-36hrs, the front will be completely dissolved, leaving behind Franklin on the south side of a strengthening ridge; the is an good chance Franklin will be a hurricane by this time. In about two days, west-southwest-ward movement should take Franklin near or over Florida.

Good post. Glad to see someone articulate what I was also seeing in better terms than I could.

The "horizontal" part being the main thing. That's why I mentioned a north-laying CONUS jet before and it taking the whole business up and above Franklin and his synoptic.


As to the west side of the Atlantic ridge, normally that would take a cyclone out to sea up the coast, but the US High is acting like a trapping, boxing effect behind the trough, cutting off that route...

[jhamps10]

Predictaguesstimate: The short-wave trough (and associated mid-level easterlies) will rapidly exit the east-coast, leaving a lingering horizontally-draped front off-shore; this front will quickly modify and wash out (it has already done so on land, where it can no longer be discerned in the southeastern states. In approx 24-36hrs, the front will be completely dissolved, leaving behind Franklin on the south side of a strengthening ridge; the is an good chance Franklin will be a hurricane by this time. In about two days, west-southwest-ward movement should take Franklin near or over Florida.

Good post. Glad to see someone articulate what I was also seeing in better terms than I could.

The "horizontal" part being the main thing.


As to the west side of the Atlantic ridge, normally that would take a cyclone out to sea up the coast, but the US High is acting like a trapping, boxing effect behind the trough, cutting off that route...

Agreement on that here.

[mike18xx]

You may all observe that a classic "ring of fire" heat-dome high is building up over the central/eastern US...

Speaking of which, check out these temp/dewpoint combos:



97/81? ***ACK!*** Somebody's gonna get softball hail....

[fci]

You may all observe that a classic "ring of fire" heat-dome high is building up over the central/eastern US...

Speaking of which, check out these temp/dewpoint combos:



97/81? ***ACK!*** Somebody's gonna get softball hail....

Just curious...
What does the chance of softball size hail in the Plains have to do with the Tropical Weather?

[mike18xx]

See heat-dome remarks farther up the page. Such domes tend to be self-reinforcing, as giant MCCs in the northern plains can shroud almost the entire eastern seaboard in blow-off which circles around the perimeter of the high.

[fci]

See heat-dome remarks farther up the page. Such domes tend to be self-reinforcing, as giant MCCs in the northern plains can shroud almost the entire eastern seaboard in blow-off which circles around the perimeter of the high.

Sorry, I'm an amateur and you lost me

[mike18xx]

The blow-off from those giant storm complexes has to sink somewhere downwind, and therby reinforces the high pressure ridge where it does.

[mike18xx]

5 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

THE NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CREATES
SOMETHING OF A QUANDARY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST BY ALL THE
MODELS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OF FRANKLIN AND LEAVE AT LEAST
A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND BY 36-48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS...
WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. IF FRANKLIN
REMAINS INTACT AT 72 HOURS...THEN THE SOUTHWARD MOTION IS QUITE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUNS AND GUNA MODELS.

[timeflow]

This is a slight BUMP. I'm reading this 5pm Discussion and everyone's ideas on the possibility of a loop... but also have looked at what may be old model output and notice only BAMD making a sharp loop... the rest keeping it on towards the NE. If I read the Discussion properly, it would seem that if the storm is healthy in 72 hours, it will likely be steered to the south or southwest, thus beginning a loop. Just trying to clarify this in less technical terms, so that I can understand the more technical... thanks!