Gert Advisories=10 AM CDT,Last Advisore written

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember Emily was a sorry looking cat4 at landfall. In the Yuctan then we find out the real damage today. Don't judge by the way it looks judge by its low levels/wind field.

[Wnghs2007]

Wow if this gets a name will only need 14 named storms to get to storm 21 wilma, and 15 to make Alpha....EEK


7 by the end of july just wow.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at visible shows a well defined LLC around 19 north/93 west moving very slowly to the west. The convection is trying to form to the north. So yes this is oreganized for a depression.

[WeatherEmperor]

What are the chances of this thing becoming tropical storm Gert? I have noticed that so far this season, every single TD has become a named storm. The last time every single TD in the entire season became a named storm was 1996. It would be a darn shame for TD7 to form and not get named. I dunno its just that I have always wanted to see that happen once again.

<RICKY>

[hurricanefreak1988]

Wow if this gets a name will only need 14 named storms to get to storm 21 wilma, and 15 to make Alpha....EEK


7 by the end of july just wow.

Remember, even though we're barely on pace to use up the list at this point, August and September are always extremely active, so we could easily move ahead of pace by that time. I'm telling you, I think this is the year.

[wxman57]

We've been tracking this system moving at about 18 kts for the last week, but the models initialized it at 8 kts movement. I think it's moving a lot faster than that. At 15 kts, it has 20 hours from landfall (from 18Z today). That puts it inland before noon CDT tomorrow. Not a lot of time to develop. There's no conveciton at all over or near the center (generally a requirement for even a TD). Might just be moving too fast for convection to develop over the center. I noticed 850mb winds were ESE 30-40 kts across that area yesterday. So if it's going to become Gert, it better get some convection over the center fast!

[Wnghs2007]

Tropical Depression Seven Forecast/Advisory Number 1

Statement as of 21:00Z on July 23, 2005


at 4 PM CDT...2100z...the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the eastern coast of Mexico from Palma Sola
northward to Cabo Rojo...and a tropical storm watch for the
northeastern coast of Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo northward to
La Cruz.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A
tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Tropical depression center located near 19.4n 93.2w at 23/2100z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 5 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1011 mb
Max sustained winds 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 19.4n 93.2w at 23/2100z
at 23/1800z center was located near 19.3n 92.9w

forecast valid 24/0600z 19.9n 94.7w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 24/1800z 20.4n 96.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 25/0600z 21.1n 97.3w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 45ne 45se 30sw 45nw.

Forecast valid 25/1800z 21.9n 98.8w...dissipating inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 26/1800z 22.5n 101.0w...remnant low inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 27/1800z...dissipated inland

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 19.4n 93.2w

next advisory at 24/0300z

forecaster Stewart


$$

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

20.4N 96.0W 47 X X X 47 MMFR 185N 926W 99 X X X 99
21.1N 97.3W 20 7 1 X 28 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 3 3
21.9N 98.8W 1 18 3 2 24 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 5 5
MMSO 238N 982W X 6 9 3 18 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 3 7 10
MMTM 222N 979W 2 18 3 1 24 GULF 28N 95W X X X 2 2
MMTX 210N 974W 20 7 1 X 28 GULF 27N 96W X X X 4 4
MMVR 192N 961W 35 X X X 35 GULF 25N 96W X 1 4 5 10

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON
C FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON
D FROM 1PM MON TO 1PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

[Wnghs2007]

Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1

Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on July 23, 2005

...Tropical Depression Seven forms in the Bay of Campeche...
...Tropical Storm Warning and watch issued for eastern Mexico...


at 4 PM CDT...2100z...the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the eastern coast of Mexico from Palma Sola
northward to Cabo Rojo...and a tropical storm watch for the
northeastern coast of Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo northward to
La Cruz.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A
tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Seven was
located near latitude 19.4 north... longitude 93.2 west or about
180 miles... 290 km... west of Campeche Mexico and about 295
miles... 475 km...east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico.


The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph
... 9 km/hr...and this general motion...at a slightly faster forward
speed...is expected for the next 24 hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and
the depression could become a tropical storm by early Sunday.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.


Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches...with isolated amounts up
to 8 inches over mountainous terrain...are possible across eastern
Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides...especially in areas previously affected by Hurricane
Emily.

Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...19.4 N... 93.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 10 PM CDT.


Forecaster Stewart




$$

[Wnghs2007]

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 23, 2005


satellite imagery...surface observations...and dropsonde data from a
NOAA research aircraft indicate the large disturbance over the Bay
of Campeche has developed into Tropical Depression Seven. During
the past half-hour...NOAA buoy 42055 reported a sustained wind of
23 kt about 150 nmi north of the center...while a dropsonde
instrument just north of Merida reported a surface wind near 30 kt.
While this latter report was within the outflow of a cluster of
land-based thunderstorms...other nearby dropsonde reports indicate
winds of 30-35 kt at 925-850 mb. This wind data supports at least
25 kt as an initial intensity.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/05. The inner-core
wind field and circulation are rather broad and ill-defined...so
pinpointing an exact center is difficult at best. However...12z
upper-air data indicate the large-scale deep-layer anticyclone is
situated over the Central Plains with a ridge axis extending
east-west from California to the Carolinas. This should result in
the depression moving in a general west-northwest or westward
motion...ignoring the wiggles and wobbles that may occur as
convection develops near the center...until landfall occurs along
the East Coast of Mexico. The official forecast is close to NHC
model consensus

Upper-level outflow is good and the shear is forecast to remain
low...and SSTs are quite warm...around 29-30c. This would normally
favor significant strengthening to occur. However...the depression
will only have about 36 hours over water before it moves inland.
Therefore...only modest strengthening is forecast. However...if the
initial intensity turns out to be too low and/or the cyclone moves
a little slower than forecast...then a stronger tropical storm
could make landfall.


Forecaster Stewart


forecast positions and Max winds


initial 23/2100z 19.4n 93.2w 25 kt
12hr VT 24/0600z 19.9n 94.7w 30 kt
24hr VT 24/1800z 20.4n 96.0w 35 kt
36hr VT 25/0600z 21.1n 97.3w 45 kt
48hr VT 25/1800z 21.9n 98.8w 30 kt...dissipating inland
72hr VT 26/1800z 22.5n 101.0w 20 kt...remnant low inland
96hr VT 27/1800z...dissipated inland

$$

[Swimdude]

Every time I go to sleep, and wake up, another storm has formed. Jeez.

[johngaltfla]

Wow if this gets a name will only need 14 named storms to get to storm 21 wilma, and 15 to make Alpha....EEK


7 by the end of july just wow.

Remember, even though we're barely on pace to use up the list at this point, August and September are always extremely active, so we could easily move ahead of pace by that time. I'm telling you, I think this is the year.

Hurricane or Tropical Storm "Alpha". Think about it. Even if 7 fizzles or turns into Gert we're not even close to any kind of peak. I remember the one season where there were 5 storms in the Atlantica at once and everyone was freaking out.

The odds are increasing for that $100 billion disaster. I do hope this develops and dies quickly. Gert just needs to go away.

[wxman57]

I"m a bit confused about the 5kts forward speed. We've been tracking it at 18 kts for 7 days. It moved from one side of the Yucatan to the other in 12 hours. 850mb winds are ESE at 25-35 kts across the BoC. Even the BAMs move it inland within 24 hours. Just can't understand the NHC's slow forward speed....

[Derek Ortt]

i'm not surprised that this terrible TD call was made

[wxman57]

i'm not surprised that this terrible TD call was made

Isn't at least one requirement for a TD for it to have SOME convection within, say, 100nm of the center?

[NEXRAD]

Wxman57: I recall 2002's TS Edouard being declared a tropical depression when it was a swirl of mostly low clouds. Needless to say, that system never did develop much precipitation.

- Jay
KSC FL

[Derek Ortt]

not with this forecaster on duty. anything is a TD

[wxman57]

Wxman57: I recall 2002's TS Edouard being declared a tropical depression when it was a swirl of mostly low clouds. Needless to say, that system never did develop much precipitation.

- Jay
KSC FL

Yeah, but Edouard's swirl was a remnant of a TS then, it wasn't a developing TD with just a low level swirl.

[NEXRAD]

My error, I wrote a confusing sentence... What I meant was when the system that would become Edouard was first declared a depression offshore East Central Florida, it consisted of a 30 or so mile wide swirl that had a 15 or 20 mile thunderstorm near it. I remember laughing about it, as the afternoon thunderstorms over Florida looked far more impressive.

- Jay
KSC FL

[Derek Ortt]

I believe that was TD 4 in 2000 that was just a low cloud swirl. It was declared because recon when flying toward another system accidently found a closed surface circulation with winds close to TS intensity