12z UKMET has Frank missing this trough.........

[Dean4Storms]

but leaves Franklin out there to be picked up by the next one. Does not make sense, if Franklin misses this trough he would be forced back westward IMO.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[Nimbus]

I'm going to wait till fiv.

[Sanibel]

Franklin is already right of that model...

[clfenwi]

Franklin is already right of that model...

At least it's doing 'better' than NOGAPS, which initalized Franklin at 30 N...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=000hr

I must note that only now did I look at the entire run... when I had first looked at it, I saw the initialization and 12h and assumed it was zipping it off rapidly, which it isn't necessarily. Also, it wasn't the only model with initialization issues

THE GFS IS SIMILARLY WEAK WITH THE SFC SYS ASSOC WITH FRANKLIN AND
PLACES THE SFC LOW 85 NM TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST COMPARED TO THE
OFFICIAL 12Z PSN. THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE SFC LOW
COMPARED TO ITS 00Z RUN. AT H5...THE GFS IS BETTER INITIALIZED
WITH THE H5 TROF TO THE NORTHEAST OF FRANKLIN THAN THE NAM...BUT
IS TOO STRONG WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL GOMEX COAST LIKE THE
NAM. THE GFS ALSO APPEARS WEAK WITH THE H5 VORT ENERGY ASSOC WITH
FRANKLIN. THE GFS HAS TRENDED FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK OF
FRANKLIN...BUT...SINCE IT IS WEAK...IT MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
CARRYING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA LIKE THE NAM.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

[mike18xx]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2005072312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=000hr

What's the main page for that link? Thanks....

[clfenwi]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2005072312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=000hr

What's the main page for that link? Thanks....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[NEXRAD]

Hi Dean!

I've noticed the UKMET as well. The GFS, NAM, and GFDL are the ones taking Franklin with this trough. Most of the others appear to keep the storm lagged behind with the Tuesday trough exiting it. I can see where it would be plausible if Franklin can lose enough longitude, but if the storm stays farther west, the influence from the continental ridge won't be deniable. It's worth watching.

- Jay
KSC FL

[flashflood]

I am hoping Franklin misses the first trough and hangs around a few more days before it jets out to sea. In doing that I am presuming that it will mix out some of the SAL before it gets here in FL. I do like to see afternoon convection, but if the SAL comes, I don't even bother to look.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Whats the SAL?

[flashflood]

The "Saharan Air Layer" that been on the news. i.e. "the sand storm" the news has been scaring people with. All that dust from the Saharan desert is coming via large tropical wave. If you do a search here, you will find several threads on it.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Saharan Air Layer, aye! Tnx info, was all I was looking for

[Stratusxpeye]

So if i understand correctly even if franklin misses this trough he still will not affect the us?

[mike18xx]

If Franklin stalls and then sinks south, it'll intercept and ingest a lot of it.