Gert Advisories=10 AM CDT,Last Advisore written

NEXRAD · #41 Postby **NEXRAD** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:44 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I believe that was TD 4 in 2000 that was just a low cloud swirl. It was declared because recon when flying toward another system accidently found a closed surface circulation with winds close to TS intensity

You could be right, Derek. Anything pre-2004 is distant past for me, hence I could have had a memory mix there.

Jay
KSC FL

#42 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:50 pm

Just because they mistakenly named a low-level swirl a TD in the past isn't justification for doing it again. ;-)

I suppose since this one is probably going to develop and since development will occur overnight when most are sleeping, then an early upgrade isn't a bad idea, though. It's either upgrade a questionable system now or declare a TS in the morning with no time before landfall for Mexico.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #43 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:05 pm

I believe with the low level cirulation. It is starting to tighten that the nhc did a good choice with the upgrade. Even so 94L a month ago was maybe more oreganized. But this has 2 days to get developed. So I would not be suprized to see a big flare up tonight. With this system fastly becoming stronger. Thank you Nhc they have the recon. Plus the data we don't have in they made what they think.

Thunder44 · #44 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:06 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:i'm not surprised that this terrible TD call was made

Isn't at least one requirement for a TD for it to have SOME convection within, say, 100nm of the center?

From the TPC Glossary:

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects)

Tropical Depression:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #45 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:07 pm

No that is not true...A depression needs a closed LLC at the surface with a warm core. In which it can form convection as its getting better oreganized. Remember the nhc has a recon plane in there.

Also to note the system is down a millibar since last hour.

(Remember Grace :roll:

)

Website · #46 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:12 pm

Grace was a freaking squall line that got named... I still say that was a waste of a name. :lol:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #47 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:15 pm

This thing has a large low level cirulation. Which is becoming bettter oreganized. In if it can tighten over night/form convection could very well fellow the 45 knots the nhc gives it. It has 2 days before landfall which is early Monday. The Tchp down there is pretty high with low shear...

Website · #48 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:44 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINS TO EASTERN MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO...AND A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO
ROJO NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...350 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...19.5 N... 93.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Anonymous · #49 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:47 pm

Gert still seems like a BIG HURRICANE name. Maybe KATRINA is the real big one...LOL

Website · #50 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:49 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Gert still seems like a BIG HURRICANE name. Maybe KATRINA is the real big one...LOL

Gert in 1999 made it to 150 mph, but was a fish(except for some outer fringes affecting Bermuda).

Going into this season I didn't expect much from it. To be honest... Harvey and Irene just don't sound threatening either, but then again, neither did Emily. :roll:

I also thought Franklin would be a major hurricane from the Cape Verde area that would come in August...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #51 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:53 pm

Remember Frankie/tropical depression 7 formed from 99L. Which a cape verde wave.

Anonymous · #52 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:57 pm

Harvey may be a name that does not sound threatening, but is. Like Charley. Some names look like they belong together.

#53 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:59 pm

hey mike, where is your video update?

#54 Postby **Andrew92** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 9:40 pm

Mods please delete, went to wrong thread.

Website · #55 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 9:42 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072005
0300Z SUN JUL 24 2005

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NORTHWARD TO
LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA
TO LA CRUZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 94.1W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 94.1W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 93.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.2N 95.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.0N 100.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 94.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA

#56 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 9:46 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NORTHWARD TO
LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA
TO LA CRUZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE
94.1 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF
VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES... 375 KM...EAST-SOUTH EAST OF
TUXPAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.7 N... 94.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

#57 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 9:52 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...CURRENTLY IN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE GENESIS MISSION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH WIND GUSTS OF
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL DEFINED
INNER CORE YET. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS AND WITH
LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...IT IS
FORECAST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A
TROPICAL STORM.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS...
SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING INLAND OVER MEXICO.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 19.7N 94.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 20.2N 95.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 21.0N 97.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 100.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

#58 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 9:56 pm

I believe in the first burst of convection the system has near or over the center Gert will form.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #59 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:19 pm

So they have something else down there right now? Looks like this is getting much better oreganized.

Shoshana · #60 Postby **Shoshana** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:09 am

Uh huh ... it's official

Tropical Storm Gert Special Advisory Number 3

Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on July 24, 2005

...Seventh tropical storm of the season forms in the Bay of
Campeche...

Reports from a NOAA research aircraft indicate that Tropical
Depression Seven has strengthened and become a tropical storm.

'shana

Gert Advisories=10 AM CDT,Last Advisore written

Who is online