Breaking News: TS GERT FORMS IN BOC

[gkrangers]

766
WTNT42 KNHC 240548
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPGRADE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND PROVIDE A COMPLETE
ADVISORY PACKAGE INDICATING SUCH.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON
BOARD A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED AND BECOME TROPICAL STORM GERT. WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR...THE SFMR REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 36 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR INTENSITY OF GERT. THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE 34 KT WIND RADII.

GERT IS THE EARLIEST 7TH NAMED STORM ON RECORD...BREAKING THE OLD
RECORD OF AUGUST 7TH. THE MEAN DATE OF FORMATION BEING SEPTEMBER
23RD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0600Z 19.8N 94.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 20.2N 95.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 21.0N 97.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 100.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[gkrangers]

434
WTNT22 KNHC 240549
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072005
0600Z SUN JUL 24 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA
CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 94.7W AT 24/0600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 94.7W AT 24/0600Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 93.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.2N 95.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.0N 100.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 94.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$

[gkrangers]

900
WTNT32 KNHC 240552
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA
CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES... 170 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 195
MILES... 310 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...19.8 N... 94.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$

[wxmann_91]

Are we to Alpha yet?

Not surprised we got Gert, considering the weirdness of this year and the fact that sat presentation has improved drastically.

Man we shattered that August 7 record for 7th named storm by 15 days.

[gkrangers]

We are 60 days ahead of schedule.

[themusk]

I never thought I'd be asking this, but what are the chances that one of the blobs out there will give us #8 before the 31st?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I wonder what will go next? It is looking on track to distory 1995 then 1933.

[Swimdude]

Gert... It's, what, July 24th. [Barely!]

I'm glad I decided to stop in here at Storm2K... This is one heck of a season already!

[mike18xx]

We are 60 days ahead of schedule.

If one were consider that Gert and Bret are "threshold" storms that, when examined by high-tech sensors, are afforded TS status hours before moving ashore -- and thereby discount them -- the pace wouldn't be atypical of a similar busy year before such technologies missed those systems.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Gert still has around 18 more hours. In he is fastly becoming better oreganized. I don't think this is going to be a boarder line tropcal storm. Maybe going in as a 50 mph tropical storm with recon to back.

[gkrangers]

I never thought I'd be asking this, but what are the chances that one of the blobs out there will give us #8 before the 31st?

Nothing out there right at this moment is particularly impressive.

Theres also alot of dry, dusty, Saharan desert air located over the Atlantic and Carribbean. Which would preclude tropical development.

[clfenwi]

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM GERT (AL072005) ON 20050724 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050724 0600 050724 1800 050725 0600 050725 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.8N 94.7W 20.4N 96.9W 20.8N 98.8W 21.1N 100.5W
BAMM 19.8N 94.7W 20.5N 96.9W 21.1N 98.8W 21.7N 100.5W
A98E 19.8N 94.7W 20.5N 96.6W 21.5N 98.6W 22.5N 100.5W
LBAR 19.8N 94.7W 20.5N 96.8W 21.3N 99.2W 22.3N 101.6W
SHIP 35KTS 45KTS 55KTS 62KTS
DSHP 35KTS 45KTS 40KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050726 0600 050727 0600 050728 0600 050729 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 101.9W 20.4N 104.0W 19.9N 106.0W 20.4N 109.1W
BAMM 22.2N 102.0W 22.5N 104.2W 22.6N 106.4W 23.5N 109.2W
A98E 23.2N 102.5W 24.7N 104.9W 25.5N 106.7W 27.2N 108.8W
LBAR 23.4N 103.8W 25.8N 107.1W 27.9N 109.1W 30.6N 110.4W
SHIP 68KTS 74KTS 78KTS 76KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.8N LONCUR = 94.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 19.3N LONM12 = 92.9W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 18.6N LONM24 = 91.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 75NM

[Stormcenter]

We are 60 days ahead of schedule.

If one were consider that Gert and Bret are "threshold" storms that, when examined by high-tech sensors, are afforded TS status hours before moving ashore -- and thereby discount them -- the pace wouldn't be atypical of a similar busy year before such technologies missed those systems.

The same could have be said looking at it the other way around in past seasons when a TD or TS was not upgraded when they should have been before landfall. I think you may find very few here on this board or anywhere else that would think that this anything but a normal season so far even without Brett or Gert.

[Stormcenter]

I never thought I'd be asking this, but what are the chances that one of the blobs out there will give us #8 before the 31st?

Nothing out there right at this moment is particularly impressive.

Theres also alot of dry, dusty, Saharan desert air located over the Atlantic and Carribbean. Which would preclude tropical development.

Homegrown my friend homegrown, think GOM.

[gkrangers]

I never thought I'd be asking this, but what are the chances that one of the blobs out there will give us #8 before the 31st?

Nothing out there right at this moment is particularly impressive.

Theres also alot of dry, dusty, Saharan desert air located over the Atlantic and Carribbean. Which would preclude tropical development.

Homegrown my friend homegrown, think GOM.

Its an ULL with a thunderstorm that moved offshore. That dry saharan air is also expected to affect Florida, and I'm assuming the GOM as well in a few days.

[Huckster]

We are 60 days ahead of schedule.

If one were consider that Gert and Bret are "threshold" storms that, when examined by high-tech sensors, are afforded TS status hours before moving ashore -- and thereby discount them -- the pace wouldn't be atypical of a similar busy year before such technologies missed those systems.

I definitely see your point, but let's quantify this a bit. Let's say that 35-45 kts is "threshold." For 1995, that yields 4 systems, and for 1933, that yields 9 systems. The hurricane season of 1887 stands out also as an impressive year with 19 tropical storms and hurricanes, and only one of those was 45 kts or below. If indeed a lot of storms between 35 and 45 kts might have been missed, then the 1887 season (if we had more data) might certainly beat out 1933. No matter what, this year is ahead of all even all the years of increased activity since 1995, and going only by the data we have in our records, easily beats 1887 and 1933 also.

[mike18xx]

Gert still has around 18 more hours. In he is fastly becoming better oreganized. I don't think this is going to be a boarder line tropcal storm. Maybe going in as a 50 mph tropical storm with recon to back.

Before satellite, I'll bet a LOT of BoC storms (which had no presence in the Caribbean) were missed.

[Hurricaneman]

The g storm before august, who would have thunk it

[Astro_man92]

wow 7 named stormsand not even close to the peak of the season i'm haveing no doubts that we might have to make up more names lol

[Wnghs2007]

Um.....I just checked the ECMWF and it seems to show something near days 6 and 7.....we could have 8 before the end of july...


It shows a system of moving near puerto rico and each run it has gotten a little bit better defined....we will see if this trend holds...