Gert Advisories=10 AM CDT,Last Advisore written
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Hurricaneman
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Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 4
Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on July 24, 2005
...Gert re-organizing north of the previous track...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Palma Sola to La
Cruz. Tropical storm conditions are also possible north of the
warning area as far north as La Pesca.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
Data from a NOAA aircraft indicate that the center of Gert has
reformed north of the previous center. At 4 am CDT...0900z...the
center of Tropical Storm Gert was located near latitude 21.0
north... longitude 95.4 west or about 180 miles... 290 km...
east-southeast of Tampico Mexico.
Gert is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
...17 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Gert is expected
to reach the coastline within the warning area this evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the day today prior to
landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.
Total rainfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches...with isolated amounts up
to 10 inches over mountainous terrain...are possible across eastern
Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides...especially in areas previously affected by Hurricane
Emily.
Repeating the 4 am CDT position...21.0 N... 95.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 7 am CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 10 am CDT.
Forecaster Franklin
Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on July 24, 2005
...Gert re-organizing north of the previous track...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Palma Sola to La
Cruz. Tropical storm conditions are also possible north of the
warning area as far north as La Pesca.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
Data from a NOAA aircraft indicate that the center of Gert has
reformed north of the previous center. At 4 am CDT...0900z...the
center of Tropical Storm Gert was located near latitude 21.0
north... longitude 95.4 west or about 180 miles... 290 km...
east-southeast of Tampico Mexico.
Gert is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
...17 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Gert is expected
to reach the coastline within the warning area this evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the day today prior to
landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.
Total rainfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches...with isolated amounts up
to 10 inches over mountainous terrain...are possible across eastern
Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides...especially in areas previously affected by Hurricane
Emily.
Repeating the 4 am CDT position...21.0 N... 95.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 7 am CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 10 am CDT.
Forecaster Franklin
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Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 4
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 24, 2005
a slew of dropsondes from a NOAA p-3 aircraft conducting a research
mission in Gert indicate that the low-level circulation center has
reformed about 60 nmi north of the previous track. This new center
is right in the middle of the coldest convection...and while the
dropsonde data within this convection have not indicated any
strengthening yet...in fact the winds around the new center are
quite light...this improvement in the organization of the cyclone
suggests that some intensification is likely in the 12-18 hours
prior to landfall. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on
the earlier stepped-frequency microwave observations.
There has been little change to the forecast track except to adjust
it northward to accomodate the new initial position. The initial
motion estimate is 290/9...and model guidance indicates no
significant change in this motion prior to landfall.
Attempts to coordinate with the government of Mexico an extension of
the Tropical Storm Warning northward were not successful...but
tropical storm conditions are possible from Palma Sola to La Pesca.
The primary threat with this system is rainfall...and rains from
Gert will reach some of the areas earlier affected by Emily.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 24/0900z 21.0n 95.4w 35 kt
12hr VT 24/1800z 21.4n 96.8w 40 kt
24hr VT 25/0600z 22.0n 98.5w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 25/1800z 22.8n 99.9w 25 kt...dissipating
48hr VT 26/0600z...dissipated
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 24, 2005
a slew of dropsondes from a NOAA p-3 aircraft conducting a research
mission in Gert indicate that the low-level circulation center has
reformed about 60 nmi north of the previous track. This new center
is right in the middle of the coldest convection...and while the
dropsonde data within this convection have not indicated any
strengthening yet...in fact the winds around the new center are
quite light...this improvement in the organization of the cyclone
suggests that some intensification is likely in the 12-18 hours
prior to landfall. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on
the earlier stepped-frequency microwave observations.
There has been little change to the forecast track except to adjust
it northward to accomodate the new initial position. The initial
motion estimate is 290/9...and model guidance indicates no
significant change in this motion prior to landfall.
Attempts to coordinate with the government of Mexico an extension of
the Tropical Storm Warning northward were not successful...but
tropical storm conditions are possible from Palma Sola to La Pesca.
The primary threat with this system is rainfall...and rains from
Gert will reach some of the areas earlier affected by Emily.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 24/0900z 21.0n 95.4w 35 kt
12hr VT 24/1800z 21.4n 96.8w 40 kt
24hr VT 25/0600z 22.0n 98.5w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 25/1800z 22.8n 99.9w 25 kt...dissipating
48hr VT 26/0600z...dissipated
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
The way it is looking this morning looks pretty darn good. A ball of convection has formed over the newly formed LLC/center. In which banding has started to develop. This thing should make landfall between 5 to 8pm sunday. I'm thinking around 60 mph...
That is my best thinking....In yes this could be all blown to the under world.
That is my best thinking....In yes this could be all blown to the under world.
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cycloneye
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTNT32 KNHC 241156
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005
...GERT IS POORLY ORGANIZED...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA
CRUZ. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE
WARNING AREA AS FAR NORTH AS LA PESCA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF TAMPICO MEXICO.
GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 10 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.
REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...21.1 N... 95.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005
...GERT IS POORLY ORGANIZED...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA
CRUZ. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE
WARNING AREA AS FAR NORTH AS LA PESCA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF TAMPICO MEXICO.
GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 10 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.
REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...21.1 N... 95.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Lowpressure
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Portastorm
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Lowpressure wrote:Matt or anyone that knows, off topic, but locally mention of MCS moving through this evening. What is MCS? Met name for thunderstorm complex?
I am in central Virginia until tomorrow, adv on LWX.
MCS = Mesoscale Convective System. Yes, it is a met name for a thunderstorm complex that is usually long-lasting and can contain severe weather.
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Lowpressure
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- Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
Portastorm wrote:Lowpressure wrote:Matt or anyone that knows, off topic, but locally mention of MCS moving through this evening. What is MCS? Met name for thunderstorm complex?
I am in central Virginia until tomorrow, adv on LWX.
MCS = Mesoscale Convective System. Yes, it is a met name for a thunderstorm complex that is usually long-lasting and can contain severe weather.
Thanks portastorm.
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Andrew92
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- Location: Phoenix, Arizona
000
WTNT32 KNHC 241430
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005
...GERT REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT COULD STILL STRENGTHEN BEFORE
LANDFALL...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM... SOUTHEAST OF
TAMPICO MEXICO.
GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE TRACK THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
... 140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.1 N... 96.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
WTNT32 KNHC 241430
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005
...GERT REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT COULD STILL STRENGTHEN BEFORE
LANDFALL...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM... SOUTHEAST OF
TAMPICO MEXICO.
GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE TRACK THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
... 140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.1 N... 96.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
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Andrew92
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000
WTNT22 KNHC 241429
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072005
1500Z SUN JUL 24 2005
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 96.2W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 96.2W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.8W
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.7N 97.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.3N 98.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.7N 100.0W...INLAND...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 96.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
WTNT22 KNHC 241429
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072005
1500Z SUN JUL 24 2005
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 96.2W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 96.2W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.8W
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.7N 97.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.3N 98.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.7N 100.0W...INLAND...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 96.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
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Andrew92
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 241429
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN FLYING BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WHERE THE CENTER IS SUSPECTED TO BE LOCATED...BUT
SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND A DEFINITE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. RATHER...THE DATA FROM THE PLANE SUGGEST A BROAD AREA
OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE AIRCRAFT WINDS ALSO
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CENTERS...ONE NEAR THE ADVISORY
POSITION AND A SECOND NEAR THE OLD TRACK...I.E. FARTHER SOUTH.
SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA ARE CERTAINLY NOT CONCLUSIVE...I WILL
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE ADVISORY
LOCATION IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER ESTIMATE
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. GERT IS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...
AND IF THE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...THE STORM COULD
STRENGTHEN JUST BEFORE REACHING THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 285/8. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF GERT SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM
GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER AFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH
WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 21.1N 96.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 21.7N 97.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 22.3N 98.7W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0000Z 22.7N 100.0W 25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
WTNT42 KNHC 241429
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN FLYING BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WHERE THE CENTER IS SUSPECTED TO BE LOCATED...BUT
SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND A DEFINITE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. RATHER...THE DATA FROM THE PLANE SUGGEST A BROAD AREA
OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE AIRCRAFT WINDS ALSO
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CENTERS...ONE NEAR THE ADVISORY
POSITION AND A SECOND NEAR THE OLD TRACK...I.E. FARTHER SOUTH.
SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA ARE CERTAINLY NOT CONCLUSIVE...I WILL
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE ADVISORY
LOCATION IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER ESTIMATE
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. GERT IS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...
AND IF THE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...THE STORM COULD
STRENGTHEN JUST BEFORE REACHING THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 285/8. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF GERT SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM
GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER AFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH
WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 21.1N 96.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 21.7N 97.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 22.3N 98.7W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0000Z 22.7N 100.0W 25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
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cycloneye
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WTNT32 KNHC 241736
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005
...GERT APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD
TO LA PESCA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM... SOUTHEAST OF
TAMPICO MEXICO.
GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
... 140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...21.4 N... 96.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005
...GERT APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD
TO LA PESCA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM... SOUTHEAST OF
TAMPICO MEXICO.
GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
... 140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...21.4 N... 96.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
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