Breaking News: TS GERT FORMS IN BOC

Petmom · #21 Postby **Petmom** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 7:16 am

Astro_man92 wrote:wow 7 named stormsand not even close to the peak of the season i'm haveing no doubts that we might have to make up more names lol

Was there ever a time since we started to name storms, that it was more storms than name in one year? Just curious to know. TIA

#22 Postby **Downdraft** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 7:46 am

the way this season going a storm forming is hardly breaking news anymore.. :eek:

Ixolib · #23 Postby **Ixolib** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 7:57 am

Downdraft wrote:the way this season going a storm forming is hardly breaking news anymore..

GOOD POINT... A more appropriate headline might read:
"Breaking News - Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Likely Today"

Website · #24 Postby **Brent** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:14 am

Petmom wrote:
Astro_man92 wrote:wow 7 named stormsand not even close to the peak of the season i'm haveing no doubts that we might have to make up more names lol

Was there ever a time since we started to name storms, that it was more storms than name in one year? Just curious to know. TIA

No. 1995 we got Tanya. That's the closest we ever got(with V and W left).

Petmom · #25 Postby **Petmom** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:30 am

Brent wrote:
Petmom wrote:
Astro_man92 wrote:wow 7 named stormsand not even close to the peak of the season i'm haveing no doubts that we might have to make up more names lol

Was there ever a time since we started to name storms, that it was more storms than name in one year? Just curious to know. TIA

No. 1995 we got Tanya. That's the closest we ever got(with V and W left).

Thanks. What will happen though if a year comes and we run out of names?

I didn't live here in America in 1995, but it must have been pretty bad.

:grrr:

#26 Postby **drezee** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:36 am

Buoy 42055 reporting 45 mph gusts:

24/13 42055 22.0 -94.0 25.1 23.8 130 25 G 39 150 39 1013.8 1.5 29.2 3.0 8 42055

#27 Postby **Andrew92** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:42 am

Astro_man92 wrote:wow 7 named stormsand not even close to the peak of the season i'm haveing no doubts that we might have to make up more names lol

Well, we need replacement names for Dennis and Emily, as they both need to be retired. I say Derek and Elaine should be the names.

In any event, for now I predict no Harvey until the first couple days of August. However, given this crazy season, I wouldn't be shocked to see Harvey form within a week.

-Andrew92

HurricaneGirl · #28 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 9:43 am

Hurricaneman wrote:The g storm before august, who would have thunk it

I know this is crazy!

x-y-no · #29 Postby **x-y-no** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:27 am

Don't want to be too critical of the decision to name this - but it sure looks like a sorry mess to me - and the discussion says recon can't find a center of circulation.

It'll no doubt be a significant rain event. though.

Website · #30 Postby **Brent** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:31 am

Petmom wrote:Thanks. What will happen though if a year comes and we run out of names?

I didn't live here in America in 1995, but it must have been pretty bad.

Greek alphabet. Alpha... Beta... etc.

1995 actually wasn't terrible for the U.S.(2004 was much much worse). A lot of the storms stayed out to sea. 2 or 3 affected the Leeward Islands/Puerto Rico but didn't even affect the mainland. The only two hurricanes to hit the U.S. that year were Erin and Opal was Opal was the only major, a marginal Cat 3.

mike18xx · #31 Postby **mike18xx** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:31 am

Wnghs2007 wrote:Um.....I just checked the ECMWF and it seems to show something near days 6 and 7.....we could have 8 before the end of july...It shows a system of moving near puerto rico and each run it has gotten a little bit better defined....we will see if this trend holds...

Do you have a link for the ECMWF?

Website · #32 Postby **Brent** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:36 am

Andrew92 wrote:
Astro_man92 wrote:wow 7 named stormsand not even close to the peak of the season i'm haveing no doubts that we might have to make up more names lol

Well, we need replacement names for Dennis and Emily, as they both need to be retired. I say Derek and Elaine should be the names.

In any event, for now I predict no Harvey until the first couple days of August. However, given this crazy season, I wouldn't be shocked to see Harvey form within a week.

-Andrew92

I doubt Elaine is the replacement since there was ELENA in the 80's...

x-y-no · #33 Postby **x-y-no** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:37 am

mike18xx wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:Um.....I just checked the ECMWF and it seems to show something near days 6 and 7.....we could have 8 before the end of july...It shows a system of moving near puerto rico and each run it has gotten a little bit better defined....we will see if this trend holds...
Do you have a link for the ECMWF?

http://www.ecmwf.int/

Unfortunately, they don't release much of their data.

gkrangers · #34 Postby **gkrangers** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:38 am

x-y-no wrote:Don't want to be too critical of the decision to name this - but it sure looks like a sorry mess to me - and the discussion says recon can't find a center of circulation.

It'll no doubt be a significant rain event. though.

Hindsight is 20/20..last night they had a clear center and TS winds.

#35 Postby **Andrew92** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:38 am

If not Elaine, I would say maybe Eve for a replacement name....however, the sound of Hurricane Eve gives me the absolute creeps.

-Andrew92

mike18xx · #36 Postby **mike18xx** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:41 am

Huckster wrote:No matter what, this year is ahead of all even all the years of increased activity since 1995, and going only by the data we have in our records, easily beats 1887 and 1933 also.

Here's the data for 1933:

# Name Date Wind Pres Cat
1 Tropical Storm #1 14-19 MAY 40 - -
2 Hurricane #2 27 JUN- 7 JUL 90 986 2
3 Tropical Storm #3 14-20 JUL 45 - -
4 Tropical Storm #4 21-27 JUL 40 - -
5 Hurricane #5 25 JUL- 5 AUG 80 981 1
6 Tropical Storm #6 12-20 AUG 50 - -
7 Tropical Storm #7 16-21 AUG 35 - -
8 Hurricane #8 17-26 AUG 105 971 3
9 Tropical Storm #9 24-31 AUG 45 - -
10 Tropical Storm #10 26-29 AUG 35 - -
11 Hurricane #11 28 AUG- 5 SEP 110 - 3
12 Hurricane #12 31 AUG- 7 SEP 120 948 4
13 Hurricane #13 8-21 SEP 105 957 3
14 Hurricane #14 10-15 SEP 75 960 1
15 Hurricane #15 16-25 SEP 95 962 2
16 Tropical Storm #16 27-30 SEP 40 - -
17 Tropical Storm #17 28-30 SEP 35 - -
18 Hurricane #18 1- 9 OCT 130 971 4
19 Hurricane #19 25 OCT- 7 NOV 85 - 2
20 Tropical Storm #20 26-30 OCT 60 - -
21 Tropical Storm #21 15-17 NOV 35 - -

1933 had five systems before Aug 1. If we speculate two short-lived "missed" or "fish" storms during pre-satellite era, 1933 would be similar to this one, and have started even earlier.

x-y-no · #37 Postby **x-y-no** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:42 am

gkrangers wrote:
x-y-no wrote:Don't want to be too critical of the decision to name this - but it sure looks like a sorry mess to me - and the discussion says recon can't find a center of circulation.

It'll no doubt be a significant rain event. though.
Hindsight is 20/20..last night they had a clear center and TS winds.

Yeah ... just read the 2AM discussion which went with the special advisory.

Clearly, there was reason to name it at that time. Could hardly have anticipated that it would go through a reorganization immediately after that.

Sanibel · #38 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:46 am

Looks more linear than 4am last night when it was center bursting.

If this storm had more time over water its depth is telling you it had potential...

#39 Postby **Canelaw99** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 11:04 am

Geez - am away from the computer 24 hours, and this is what happens? LOL - guess I can't move from the computer until Dec. 1, huh?? :wink:

Astro_man92 · #40 Postby **Astro_man92** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:52 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1933.asp

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2005.asp

here are the maps for the 1933 and the 2005 atlantic season so far

Breaking News: TS GERT FORMS IN BOC

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