SW Monsoon Thread

[wxmann_91]

Well, it's here. Tornado to the north of us yesterday, 16000 lightning strikes in 12 hr period in San Diego, and today, 3" per hour rain rates to our east, the monsoon is FINALLY here!!!!

Unfortunately, it's expected to end tomorrow temporarily (thankfully though, so is the heat). But now, since it's here, I've created this thread for any news, images, etc. for this year's monsoon.

[Stephanie]

Has the remnants of Emily helped to fire up the monsoon in the four corners region? I know that it has had a late start. Will gErt be beneficial as well?

[wxmann_91]

Has the remnants of Emily helped to fire up the monsoon in the four corners region? I know that it has had a late start. Will gErt be beneficial as well?

Em really brought the monsoon in to all regions of the Desert Southwest.

From NWS San Diego AFD tonight:

NAM MODEL SHOWS A WEAK EDDY CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST WITH THE MARINE LAYER GRADUALLY INCREASING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVES BY TO THE NE. THIS WILL PUSH THE INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL TO THE S BY WED. LOOK FOR A MARKED DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MON WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE BY TUE. MIDWEEK LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EITHER OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE S. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST... AND IN THE 90S INLAND.

So Gert won't affect us much. But monsoon should be back by next week.

[ict1523]

Well these are the remenants of Emily. Its not really the monsoon.

[wxmann_91]

Well these are the remenants of Emily. Its not really the monsoon.

I'd say it's a combination. Emily helped enhance the monsoon, which was virtually nonexistant before she came in.

[Aslkahuna]

Emily did NOT initiate monsoon onset. The monsoon onset was officially declared as July 18th in Tucson (I declared July 17th here in SV). The Upper High had moved to it's monsoonal position near the 4 Corners a couple of days earlier and the seasonal windshift followed suit. Emily's moisture and a Gulf Surge resulting in part for the remnants of Eugene enhanced the moisture in the flow and imbedded monsoonal disturbances have been the triggers for the activity.

Steve

[Stephanie]

I'm glad that some of her affects were felt up there in the 4 corners region. I knew that the monsoon had a late start regardless, but I didn't see Steve's post about the day.

Is Gert too far south to feel any affects from her?

[wxmann_91]

I'm glad that some of her affects were felt up there in the 4 corners region. I knew that the monsoon had a late start regardless, but I didn't see Steve's post about the day.

Is Gert too far south to feel any affects from her?

Some models have Gert moving into the Four Corners. Other models say yes. But I'm trending toward the first scenario now. A shortwave trough is currently weakening the ridge, so Gert probably could be carried into the Four Corners. Definately too far east for SoCal though.

Monsoon moisture here definately has been decreasing, though still a flash flood warning was issued for San Diego County today.

[Aslkahuna]

I'm more inclined to believe that the moisture from Gert will remain in NM and to the east as westerlies dip down into AZ.

Steve

[aveosmth]

This past weekend w/the remnants of Hurricane Emily made me think about 1997.

That year we got a good dousing from the remnants of Hurricane Nora and we almost got smashed from Hurricane Linda.

Any thoughts on when we will see such an active pattern in the Pacific?

[wxmann_91]

This past weekend w/the remnants of Hurricane Emily made me think about 1997.

That year we got a good dousing from the remnants of Hurricane Nora and we almost got smashed from Hurricane Linda.

Any thoughts on when we will see such an active pattern in the Pacific?

Another strong El Nino year or after the active Atlantic period is over.

[riverratmike]

got some rain and quite a bit of lightning here yesterday, another round of it is forcasted for this afternoon.