Why Franklin may LOOP after all

[mike18xx]

mike, if the works out I will write a letter of recommendation to the nhc for you...

My Jeckyll & Hyde personality,
disgusting personal habits,
and dismissive arrogance,

...preclude me from working well under other people.


-- They'd have to let me be the boss!

[mike18xx]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float2_0.html

[Ivanhater]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float2_0.html

amazing, i am all ears for the nhc discussion coming up

[air360]

yes it will be very interesting to see if they switch 180 degrees or if they will stick with what their forecast and hope it pans out for them.

[mike18xx]

Stoopid TWC "Meteorologist" (Yep: that's what the screen said) just now said, and I quote verbatim: "This storm will have no impact on the U.S!" as her hand fanned over color IR-4 animation (the surface swirl barely evident).

NOW I KNOW IT'S GOING TO BE A CAT-5 MAULER.

(Is there *anybody* at that place who's remotely interested in the subject they studied to get their job?)

[Ivanhater]

Stoopid TWC "Meteorologist" (Yep: that's what the screen said) just now said, and I quote verbatim: "This storm will have no impact on the U.S!" as her hand fanned over color IR-4 animation (the surface swirl barely evident).

NOW I KNOW IT'S GOING TO BE A CAT-5 MAULER.

(Is there *anybody* at that place who's remotely interested in the subject they studied to get their job?)

haaa, i heard them say that earlier today, but what are the chances of this just being "CYCLONIC LOOP"?

[mike18xx]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float2_0.html

amazing, i am all ears for the nhc discussion coming up

See the convection firing on the northern feeder band? It's there because northwesterlies aloft provide good outflow. When it shifts to northerlies, the convection will die away -- and that's also the signal that movement will soon shift from S to SW.

[mike18xx]

what are the chances of this just being "CYCLONIC LOOP"?

Zero. Once occluded and behind a front, a TC's movement is governed by the steering flow around the new, building high pressure ridge above it -- not the previous one on the other side of the front.

[Ivanhater]

what are the chances of this just being "CYCLONIC LOOP"?

Zero. Once occluded and behind a front, a TC's movement is governed by the steering flow around the new, building high pressure ridge above it -- not the previous one on the other side of the front.

very interesting mike, keep us informed with your updates!

[WeatherWiseGuy]

Please explain cyclonic loop. Thanks!

[mike18xx]

what are the chances of this just being "CYCLONIC LOOP"?

Zero. Once occluded and behind a front, a TC's movement is governed by the steering flow around the new, building high pressure ridge above it -- not the previous one on the other side of the front.

very interesting mike, keep us informed with your updates!

(Beating my head with a board. *bonk* *bonk* *bonk*)

I thwawt-I-thwaw you thay "ANTI-cyclonic loop" (which would mean Franklin feints west, then south, then east out to sea again).

A CYCLONIC loop is the one I've been foreseeing (although the "loop" part of the loop is so pinched that Franklin's path is more like a ball rolling up an incline, then back down the same route it came) -- in which it goes S->SW->W, etc.

[air360]

if it went S, then SW, and W would it not soon thereafter turn NW N and NE due to another front coming across or something else eventually picking it up??? (im not challenging your thoughts at all...im curious as to what could/would happen after some W movement for a time)

[mtm4319]

The last few frames of the Colorado State loop seem to indicate a S, then SE movement.

[mike18xx]

if it went S, then SW, and W would it not soon thereafter turn NW N and NE due to another front

What other front is nearby? There aren't any. This is going to be a multi-day affair.

The last few frames of the Colorado State loop seem to indicate a S, then SE movement.

It won't. Trust me: Franklin is occluded -- it's not going to "chase" the front which occluded it. The center of the LLC might "wobble", but the LLC as a whole has its future carved in stone at this point: It's going south, then southwest, then west -- because that's what tropical systems ensnared under a building high-pressure ridge do: "stand down" and keep moving west until the next chance of recurvature at the next trough.

[Sanibel]

Oblong bumps of the LLC as it reacts to the margin it has entered.

The last bump was SE, but it's just because it is getting grabbed by the new steering ridge. It should continue reversing west - OR the trough could still win.

More sheared than ever now!

[Astro_man92]

if you speed this imige up but not to much it looks like frenklin is a heart pumping
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... loop.htmli think the ssw is the start of the loop and could head back to the west and the hell it's moving ssw @3mph...... it's moving abit faster according to the sat.loop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mike18xx]

There's no SE movement; it's due S:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

[Astro_man92]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.htmli think the ssw is the start of the loop and could head back to the west and the hell it's moving ssw @3mph...... it's moving abit faster according to the sat.loop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't hink that link works
at least i doesn't for me

[THead]

try this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html