My thoughts on wave(s)

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ok, the lull everyone is taking about...is here. Two 45 mph Tropical Storms is the lull. But, things are going to hit the fan soon. I think Monday and Tuesday may be the last day of this Fishy Franklin and Grungy Gert lull. Harvey may be on the horizon.

I think we will see an invest by tomorrow, and a depression by Tuesday. After that, conditions appear favorable for development.

~ Large Moisture Envelope
~ Good circulation
~ Favorable Shear
~ SSTs....Come on

So, with these factors in place, I think this could be the third hurricane of the 2005 hurricane Season by Friday, nearing the northern Leeward Islands. With the ridge in place, and from what models have picked up on so far, all factors appear for a general west-northwest motion. Beyond that, who knows, although at this point I would assume a west-northwest course continuing. Strange thing I see, kind of a spooky fact, Hurricane Frances formed on August 25th from a wave much like this. This year, things appear to be one month ahead. Interesting if "HARVEY" forms on July 25th or 26th, and pulls a Frances. For now, I think a hurricane will be in the vicinity of the Northern Leewards/North of Puerto Rico in about 5-7 days. That's my opinion.

However, that may not be the only game in town. The GFS shows a wave developing in about 144 hours, in the area our first wave is in now. Obviously, it can not be the same wave. So, the waves over Africa may also be trouble down the road.

GFS::: Wave # 1 moving north of Puerto Rico, and Wave # 2 moving west as a rather potent storm in 144 hours.


MM5::: Wave # 1 moving north of Puerto Rico, Wave # 2 and Wave # 3 moving west in 120 hours.


UKMET: Wave # 1 moving through Northern Leewards in about 120 hours.


So, from what I see, I think a track between the UKMET, GFS, and MM5 track appears likely in my opinion. So, I think that a hurricane will be north of Puerto Rice by this upcoming weekend.

[gkrangers]

*writes down in notebook*

Naso said hurricane north of PR in 1 week.

Will revisit this.

Good discussion Mike.

[storm4u]

good job man as always! I really hope you are well known someday!!

[djones65]

The only problem is the wave/curvature he circled is NOT the one that is associated with the wave emerging from Africa. It is east of the "circled" area he depicted and instead is just south of the Cape Verde islands. The "ball" of convection is where the developing low along the east atlantic tropical wave. The convection west of this is a perturbation along the ITCZ spawned by the wave near 52W longitude.

Personally I believe this developing low will be too far north to take advantage of the sea surface temps for the next three days, and the ITCZ disturbance will dissipate.

I don't believe we'll see Harvey until August.

[MysticOne]

Very Interesting Thoughts. I will be anxious to see how they play out.

Personally, however, I pray you are very much wrong about a potential Harvey pulling a Frances!

[gkrangers]

And like joines said..I thought the area to watch was the ball of convection just south of the Cape Verde islands?

Agreed with FB because, well, I was unsure which area we were looking at and he's on an internet radio show...

[Andrew92]

I agree that that wave appears to be about to develop. It already appears, to my eye, to have great outflow and a nice core is trying to develop. I'd definitely be watching this wave for development if I live in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico right now!

Hopefully it goes poof, but I wonder about this one....

-Andrew92

[Swimdude]

good job man as always! I really hope you are well known someday!!

Yup, this guy is at least half the age of the average age of this site... If that makes sense. Anyway, excellent analysis, Floydbuster. Harvey, here we come.

[Anonymous]

See, the disturbing thing is that unlike Emily, which moved off Africa embedded in a dry environment, this has pushed off along with alot of moisture. If Emily made it in that, then this system can definitely make it.

[fci]

I think this is also the wave that the Miami AFD has been referring to:

"Some of the long ranged models are still showing a tropical wave
in the eastern Atlantic waters to move west northwest and approach
South Florida by late this weekend into early next week. At this
time will not make any chances to the forecast for late this
weekend until the models come in more agreement on the position of
the tropical wave. "

[Derek Ortt]

the SAL only made a 1 day cameo appearance with Emily when the system briefly looked wavy east of the islands.

The dry air is only one aspect of the SAL. The more destructive aspect for developing systems is the low-level easterly wind surge that causes the LLC to open up into a wave. In the major hurricanes, its the dry air that causes the problems

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Derek, What would happen if the climate of the deserts of Africa turned wetter? Meaning that like a long time ago it was forest. How would that effect the Atlantic hurricane season? I been wondering this for a long time.

[gkrangers]

Derek, What would happen if the climate of the deserts of Africa turned wetter? Meaning that like a long time ago it was forest. How would that effect the Atlantic hurricane season? I been wondering this for a long time.

Better idea...after you die...ask God.

[Derek Ortt]

might actually be a mixed bag as the contrast between the rain forecast and the desert does in some way (I need to go back over my trop met class notes) help the waves form over Africa

[ict1523]

I think we have a lot to watch and this hurricane season won't slow down now. I like your thoughts and I think what you think is very feasible.

[Anonymous]

I don't really see a slow down. Big difference between this and 1997 is that 1997 was an El Nino Year, and Ana, Bill, Claudette, and Danny were non tropical formations. Every storm so far this year has been due to a tropical wave.

[skysummit]

Wow Mike! I always take your forecasts and predictions seriously, and now you're going for another hurricane in 6-7 days? Holy cow! I wonder if we'll see sort of a change in the steering currents for the next few storms?

[boca]

Besides Franklin all the storms how formed in the Caribbean and formes at low latitudes and have a system come up the north side of the islands is scary for the SE US.

[Astro_man92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ok, the lull everyone is taking about...is here. Two 45 mph Tropical Storms is the lull. But, things are going to hit the fan soon. I think Monday and Tuesday may be the last day of this Fishy Franklin and Grungy Gert lull. Harvey may be on the horizon.

I think we will see an invest by tomorrow, and a depression by Tuesday. After that, conditions appear favorable for development.

~ Large Moisture Envelope
~ Good circulation
~ Favorable Shear
~ SSTs....Come on

So, with these factors in place, I think this could be the third hurricane of the 2005 hurricane Season by Friday, nearing the northern Leeward Islands. With the ridge in place, and from what models have picked up on so far, all factors appear for a general west-northwest motion. Beyond that, who knows, although at this point I would assume a west-northwest course continuing. Strange thing I see, kind of a spooky fact, Hurricane Frances formed on August 25th from a wave much like this. This year, things appear to be one month ahead. Interesting if "HARVEY" forms on July 25th or 26th, and pulls a Frances. For now, I think a hurricane will be in the vicinity of the Northern Leewards/North of Puerto Rico in about 5-7 days. That's my opinion.

However, that may not be the only game in town. The GFS shows a wave developing in about 144 hours, in the area our first wave is in now. Obviously, it can not be the same wave. So, the waves over Africa may also be trouble down the road.

GFS::: Wave # 1 moving north of Puerto Rico, and Wave # 2 moving west as a rather potent storm in 144 hours.


MM5::: Wave # 1 moving north of Puerto Rico, Wave # 2 and Wave # 3 moving west in 120 hours.


UKMET: Wave # 1 moving through Northern Leewards in about 120 hours.


So, from what I see, I think a track between the UKMET, GFS, and MM5 track appears likely in my opinion. So, I think that a hurricane will be north of Puerto Rice by this upcoming weekend.

where do you get the MM5 map

[mvtrucking]

Thanks for the outlook Mike. When is your next video due?