Looks to me like there is another Meteroligist Named Mike...

[DESTRUCTION5]

We all know the Master MW is around somewhere but this new guy on the block with the weird a** Aviator has been nothing but right since his 1st post. Not to mention the explainations and meteroligical facts...Im looking FWD to reading more and more...Damn....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

He is very good. I'm seeing what appears to be flating of the clouds to the northeast of the LLC. Which would mean that something is pushing down there. The outflow/convection is moving eastward or east-southeastward. But the LLC is pushing southward. If that keeps pushing south expect a southwest movment. Weird.

[Astro_man92]

We all know the Master MW is around somewhere but this new guy on the block with the weird a** Aviator has been nothing but right since his 1st post. Not to mention the explainations and meteroligical facts...Im looking FWD to reading more and more...Damn....

I agree with you all the way buddy

[air360]

yep..sure aint doing to bad in proving himself here on the board

[boca]

Which Mike are you talking about and what's his screen name?

[Huckster]

Which Mike are you talking about and what's his screen name?

I think they're talking about mike18xx.

[boca]

Is that who your talking about Mike18xx

[mahicks]

Is that who your talking about Mike18xx

yes

[boca]

thanks

[boca]

I like to see if Franklin actually holds together and heads SW.

[Anonymous]

I agree!! He is also very nice and informative and takes the time to explain in terms most of us can understand.

[mike18xx]

I'm curious why people seem to think an exposed LLC over warm water is going to puke faster than a bad burrito washed down with sour milk.

[mvtrucking]

I'm curious why people seem to think an exposed LLC over warm water is going to puke faster than a bad burrito washed down with sour milk.

I got heartburn just thinking about that combo Mike.Yukkk

[ncweatherwizard]

It's not all in the SSTs. Shear is still tough; check it out. That shear isn't going too far away too soon either. Now if you're talking about after 48 hours (and this is purely hypothetical, assuming that the LLC remains behind), conditions only look to be marginally favorable at best, and you would have a center since battered by 48 to 72 hours of shear. That's difficult to bring back to life.

Scott

[skysummit]

I'm curious why people seem to think an exposed LLC over warm water is going to puke faster than a bad burrito washed down with sour milk.

I for one don't think so. Hell...all we need is a LLC right? Just let the upper winds get a little more favorable, and boom, we'll get convection! Right? If we get convection, our buddy Franklin may get things together for one last punch. Right?

[mike18xx]

It's not all in the SSTs. Shear is still tough; check it out. That shear isn't going too far away too soon either.... That's difficult to bring back to life.

You're describing virtually every Cape Verde system that comes off Africa; nearly all of those things are outflow-dominated derechos that fly off the coast, puke, then slowly re-develop convection around the derecho's southern-end swirl.

Trust me on this: Given its location over warm water, Franklin's swirl will be a tenacious little critter just biding its time.

(Anyone remember Iris in 2001? She was a TD overtaken by an easterly surge near the Lesser Antilles, and so utterly hamstrung that rotation couldn't even be discerned the following day, the NHC stopped writing advisories. -- But a mere four days later, it creamed Belize as a cat-4.)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree this cirulation is very well defined. In I'v seen it many a times while a cyclone moved south then as it moved southwest to the west it refired its convection. If it doe's fellow this in which it appears that the weakness/trough has missed the cyclone. The flating of the low cloud field to the east shows that a high is trying ot form to the north. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[ncweatherwizard]

Still hypothetically speaking if the LLC sticks around the current location...

First, Iris reached some very favorable conditions in the western Caribbean. Heat content was a *lot* higher than it is in this part of the Atlantic.

Second, tropical waves may form a center given favorable conditions. For Franklin, the conditions are undoubtedly anything but favorable, and in time, even marginal conditions won't allow but for so much, considering what would be left over.

I will give you this, however. In the event (which seems unlikely, but is possible) that a second trough moves through and does not accelerate Franklin back eastward, but instead pushes it southward, you would see something roughly like the BAM suite is indicating, and then we could possibly see thunderstorms refire.

I'm not saying it's going to go "poof" immediately, but it's definitely going to have alot of trouble. [/i]

[mike18xx]

I agree this cirulation is very well defined. In I'v seen it many a times while a cyclone moved south then as it moved southwest to the west it refired its convection. If it doe's fellow this in which it appears that the weakness/trough has missed the cyclone.

The trough didn't "miss" Franklin, it plowed right over it -- that's why I keep making references (in other threads at least) to "Franklin occluding". Franklin was moving NE in the steering flow AHEAD of the front, and now he's moving S in the steering flow BEHIND the front.

It's really quite simple.