Why Franklin may LOOP after all

[mike18xx]

try this: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The center is more discernable with the VIS/IR2: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

[Normandy]

....and better with this one.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like it may pull the loop after all

[mike18xx]

....and better with this one.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Yeah; forgot about the color-enhanced shortwave -- it's very nice.

Wish the NOAA site had 'em.

[ict1523]

I know I haven't been here to post it but all along even when there wasn't much support for it I thought Franklin would loop around and potentially pose a threat to the Southeast part of the country. Being stubborn and sticking with the idea might look to be paying off as Franklin is showing signs of a possible loop.

[timeflow]

This thread is incredible. I read through it again, from the start. After the 11pm NHC discussion this thread is all the more impressive. Looking at the NHC 5-day track and intensities, it seems that if the loop scenario pans out, the actual result could be vastly different than the current forecast (more akin to the first NHC, but so much more weight has been given to the fish scenario since then). At least for now the F-storm is capable of bringing only great kite flying weather. Still, the NHC discussion feels that it will take another two troughs to lift it out. At the same time it may be too far south (and/or west) to be influenced (before possible land interaction takes place) as it is pulled along the periphery of the ridge. And if conditions improve, then kites are out, and plywood flies. That model outcome would be a flock of soon to be endangered crows flying into the Bermuda Triangle. But this year anything is possible...

[Sanibel]

The SE tendency was apparent before. It was, as I suggested, entering the weak synoptic limbo under the plunging High. The High impacted it and pushed it south, but as NHC said, it isn't strong enough to entrain and capture Franklin. It is in the margin between the two influences.

This could be a loop east and back into the flow following the trough. Or it could be a big bump and bounce and the High could still pick it up and take it west...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has turned due Eastward....
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Wnghs2007]

It has turned due Eastward....
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Yep, its following the convection there. And soon it will be caught up in the trough and pulled out to sea.

Though you could make the obvious mention about the Bamms but they dont do well in a Barclonic set up. Besides the center looks as though its starting to lose it tight inner core....and seems to be opening up a bit.

This is sort of like a couple in love but they can never be together (refering to the convection trying to get back over the Low Level Circulation)

[Sanibel]

The mistake was not realizing the convection was hundred's of miles east of the LLC. It was hanging its sails up into steering currents well east and closer to the trough. This will pull a weak surface feature better than a weak surface feature will drag the convection around with the High.

[Sanibel]

Be careful Wnghs2007. Because this is such a tight, abrupt loop east it could just be a "bounce" in reaction to breaking off the trough flow and getting picked up by the High. Don't write off the High, it could still build north and take Franklin west. The LLC even looks to be NE right now, making a bouncing quick loop and back into the west current possible.

It will be interesting to see what it does in the next hours...

[storm4u]

models going more to the left now!???

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

[Astro_man92]

here is an infared image of frenklin:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/zooms ... 9&lon=71.6

[Pebbles]

here is an infared image of frenklin:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/zooms ... 9&lon=71.6

You can't even see the LLC in that.... try here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

P.S. Come on Franklin! Don't make me eat crow.. I was suppose to be in bed and now you pull this! Now start behaving already!

[JamesFromMaine2]

This afternoon I thought it was a sure thing that Franklin was going out to sea so I took the afternoon off but I come back on here now and see it might not be a sure thing! Whats up with that? Won't we ever get a break from storms? lol

[mike18xx]

Franklin is extremely close to an atmospheric node where literally inches right or left of "point X" mean you're either going this-a-way or that-a-way.

Ah well, it DID go south for awhile anyway, and may yet again.

[Wnghs2007]

Well Models initalized the Current Movement at 90 degrees or Due East at 4 knts or 4.60 mph, also note they initalized it as a minimal tropical storm....35 knts....This is the latest run as of 2 AM EDT

Here they are

000
WHXX01 KWBC 250631
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN (AL062005) ON 20050725 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050725 0600 050725 1800 050726 0600 050726 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.6N 70.8W 30.0N 70.4W 29.7N 70.3W 29.7N 70.8W
BAMM 30.6N 70.8W 30.8N 70.2W 30.9N 70.0W 31.0N 70.3W
A98E 30.6N 70.8W 30.8N 69.7W 31.0N 68.7W 30.7N 69.3W
LBAR 30.6N 70.8W 30.3N 69.9W 30.7N 69.2W 31.1N 68.7W
SHIP 35KTS 30KTS 29KTS 29KTS
DSHP 35KTS 30KTS 29KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050727 0600 050728 0600 050729 0600 050730 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.0N 71.8W 31.8N 73.8W 33.6N 74.0W 35.7N 72.2W
BAMM 31.2N 70.9W 32.6N 72.0W 34.5N 71.6W 37.0N 70.0W
A98E 30.8N 69.4W 30.7N 68.5W 30.6N 67.4W 31.7N 65.8W
LBAR 32.1N 68.5W 34.4N 68.7W 36.9N 65.6W 43.1N 59.1W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS 25KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.6N LONCUR = 70.8W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 31.4N LONM12 = 71.3W DIRM12 = 41DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 30.3N LONM24 = 72.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Astro_man92]

Well Models initalized the Current Movement at 90 degrees or Due East at 4 knts or 4.60 mph, also note they initalized it as a minimal tropical storm....35 knts....This is the latest run as of 2 AM EDT

Here they are

000
WHXX01 KWBC 250631
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN (AL062005) ON 20050725 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050725 0600 050725 1800 050726 0600 050726 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.6N 70.8W 30.0N 70.4W 29.7N 70.3W 29.7N 70.8W
BAMM 30.6N 70.8W 30.8N 70.2W 30.9N 70.0W 31.0N 70.3W
A98E 30.6N 70.8W 30.8N 69.7W 31.0N 68.7W 30.7N 69.3W
LBAR 30.6N 70.8W 30.3N 69.9W 30.7N 69.2W 31.1N 68.7W
SHIP 35KTS 30KTS 29KTS 29KTS
DSHP 35KTS 30KTS 29KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050727 0600 050728 0600 050729 0600 050730 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.0N 71.8W 31.8N 73.8W 33.6N 74.0W 35.7N 72.2W
BAMM 31.2N 70.9W 32.6N 72.0W 34.5N 71.6W 37.0N 70.0W
A98E 30.8N 69.4W 30.7N 68.5W 30.6N 67.4W 31.7N 65.8W
LBAR 32.1N 68.5W 34.4N 68.7W 36.9N 65.6W 43.1N 59.1W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS 25KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.6N LONCUR = 70.8W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 31.4N LONM12 = 71.3W DIRM12 = 41DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 30.3N LONM24 = 72.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

i'd need a pad of paper and alot of pacience to define that lol

[Astro_man92]

honestly i've given up on tracking franklin he's to confusing. i'm going to wait till the next hurricane till then i'm going to track frenklin but not in an obsesive way. just on and of geting the most importent stuff

[Hurricaneman]

Its better than tracking loops