My forecast on Franklin

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Tropical storm Franklin
1am pst/4am est
7-24-2005
Forecast one


Winds 40 mph
Centered at 30.5/70.2
Movement Eastward...

Tropical storm Franklin becoming exposed...

Franklin, has been moving/drifting around the same area for the last 12 hours. In which he was moving to the south or southwest. But over the last few hours has turned more eastward. He is also a very sheared system. With most of the convection sheared to the southeast.


The overall pattern shows that the system had for a short time was riding the front side of the trough/weakness that moved off the Eastern Seaboard. Franklin is now on the back side of this trough/weakness. In Which the cyclone was being pulled to the south or even southwest for a short time. Water Vapor/Surface obs shows that a area of high pressure has developed off the East coast around 35 north/82 west. In which is starting to expend to the east. Yet another weakness over around 40/70. Is slowly moving to the east-southeast. Franklin now appears to be on the edge of things. Which makes this forecast very hard. But the latest water vapor shows that the system is concluded with the back in of the frontal system. So it will likely head to the east or even northeast if it gets pass 64 to 66 west.

While if the convection to the East-southeast could be blown away from the LLC. Which would mean that it would be steered by the lower levels of the Atmosphere. Which would take it more like the BAMM models/Or the low level flow around the upper high.

The UKMET,AvnI,LBAR.UKMI.GFNI(00z) all show a track up the back side of the trough/front much like a concluded low pressure system. Which it would likely become extratropical by 48 to 60 hours if not less. The cmc 00z shows a east-northeast then a sharp northward. So a track up the back side of the trough seems the most likely. Unless the system loses all convection. In with yet another wave of shear, to the northwest from that other weakness. That is not out of the quastion.

To note. The latest Gfdl takes it northward into southeastern Canada by the end of its forecast period. Even so I don't expect a sharp northward turn but more of a east fellowed by a northeastward turn.

Quickscats show winds of 25 to 30 mph...In which would support a tropical depression. But for now we will make sure the convection over the southeastern quad dies intill we can be sure that there is no tropical storm force winds. Which also seems likely with the high building in to the northwest. Pressure grad...

The ship model takes it back to around 31 knots by 48 to 60 hours. In which that is likely because of the extratropical form it will be taking on.



The latest seasurface temperature by buoys/obs shows that the 80 degree line is at around 38 north. In which this system will likely have another 48 to 60 hours over it. In which a east to then northeastward turn around 24 to 36 hours. Then the system will likely become extratropical afterwards.

0 40 mph...Eastward
6 35 mph
12 35 mph
24 35 mph...Turning more northeastward
36 35 mph...Turning more northward running up the trough.
48 35 mph...
60 40 mph...Becoming extratropical
72 to 84 hours extratropcial


Forecaster Matthew...


I thought I should take a crack at this pest....

[Astro_man92]

I agree with you all the way