Why Franklin may LOOP after all

mike18xx · #161 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:53 am

Wnghs2007 wrote:Well Models initalized the Current Movement at 90 degrees or Due East at 4 knts or 4.60 mph

So the many hours of southward movement were just a "wrinkle in time" to be pretended never happened?

You know, I can deal with being wrong, but I absolutely *hate* it when the TWC cretins are correct by sheer idiot's luck. *Ugh*. It's enough to make you wanna tear your own eyeballs out and throw 'em through the TV screen.

, also note they initalized it as a minimal tropical storm....35 knts....

I'm watching the short-wave IR-2 channels of the whole northwest Altantic, and I note that despite being exposed, Franklin has increased in coverage with some bands even retrograding off-beam of North Carolina:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir2-loop.html

Astro_man92 · #162 Postby **Astro_man92** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:57 am

mike18xx wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:Well Models initalized the Current Movement at 90 degrees or Due East at 4 knts or 4.60 mph
So the many hours of southward movement were just a "wrinkle in time" to be pretended never happened?

You know, I can deal with being wrong, but I absolutely *hate* it when the TWC cretins are correct by sheer idiot's luck. *Ugh*. It's enough to make you wanna tear your own eyeballs out and throw 'em through the TV screen.
, also note they initalized it as a minimal tropical storm....35 knts....
I'm watching the short-wave IR-2 channels of the whole northwest Altantic, and I note that despite being exposed, Franklin has increased in coverage with some bands even retrograding off-beam of North Carolina:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir2-loop.html

great quality pic i think i can see my house

oh and you can really see all of frenklin not just his "sheild" lol

Astro_man92 · #163 Postby **Astro_man92** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:25 am

cool i'm at lucky 250

mike18xx · #164 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:54 am

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie.pl?sat+jpg+10tttt+600+800+aor+wv

In this loop (3:45-8:15 times as I post), you can see how one upper-air "lobe" of the ridge just grazed Franklin as it rotated around the ridge axis. Now observe a second lobe coming behind it -- and it looks like Franklin will take a direct smack this time.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #165 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 5:12 am

Franklin is starting to move under the convection. He is starting to reoreganize this morning.

Astro_man92 · #166 Postby **Astro_man92** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 5:31 am

will he strengthen?????? :?:

#167 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 5:57 am

Wnghs2007 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It has turned due Eastward....
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Yep, its following the convection there. And soon it will be caught up in the trough and pulled out to sea.

Though you could make the obvious mention about the Bamms but they dont do well in a Barclonic set up. Besides the center looks as though its starting to lose it tight inner core....and seems to be opening up a bit.

This is sort of like a couple in love but they can never be together (refering to the convection trying to get back over the Low Level Circulation)

This was what I expected yesterday...
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 0&start=20

hurricanefloyd5 · #168 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:00 am

did it stall again???????????????????????????http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

tampastorm · #169 Postby **tampastorm** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:05 am

Sure looks that way, just spinning in place.

storm4u · #170 Postby **storm4u** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:15 am

when he starts to move again which way will he go!

#171 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:44 am

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:did it stall again???????????????????????????http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

I don't think so...I think he is starting to open up. You can see the LLC moving east...but the western side seems to be staying in place. This is typical when a system has been without convection for a while...the wind field spreads out. Looks like a broad center now with a couple of vorts rotating around.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Thunder44 · #172 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:51 am

Air Force Met wrote:
hurricanefloyd5 wrote:did it stall again???????????????????????????http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

I don't think so...I think he is starting to open up. You can see the LLC moving east...but the western side seems to be staying in place. This is typical when a system has been without convection for a while...the wind field spreads out. Looks like a broad center now with a couple of vorts rotating around.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Yes, it's starting to look that way now.

beachbum_al · #173 Postby **beachbum_al** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:58 am

I guess we will just have to watch this one and just see where it goes and how strong it gets.

#174 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 8:07 am

beachbum_al wrote:I guess we will just have to watch this one and just see where it goes and how strong it gets.

More like...how weak it gets.

#175 Postby **mvtrucking** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 8:20 am

I guess Franklin is headed east again. From the 5:00 am discussion:

AFTER DRIFTING SOUTHWARD EARLIER IN THE EVENING...FRANKLIN HAS BEEN
MOVING MOSTLY EASTWARD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL
MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY...070/4...IS A SMOOTHED VALUE OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY
COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON WHAT LIES AHEAD. FRANKLIN HAS MISSED
THE ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO ITS NORTHEAST. A SECOND
TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR
SO...BUT THIS TOO PROBABLY WON'T PICK UP THE CYCLONE. A THIRD
TROUGH IS LIKELY TO DO THE TRICK IN 72-96 HOURS..

Sorry if already posted

Nimbus · #176 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:07 am

If that ridge axis had been just a little further east this could have turned out differently.
The length of the southward motion was a signature feature that goes a little beyond random Brownian motion :-)

The ridge is starting to expand southwest but I don't expect Franklin to make any rocket fast moves in the near term.

#177 Postby **Pebbles** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 11:54 am

I am NOT saying it's looping.. but is franklin making a slight jog to the southwest again LOL? I'm tired so may be looking at these loops wrong

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Zadok · #178 Postby **Zadok** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:02 pm

Yes. I was just going to say that. Looks like hes heading SW again today!

Sanibel · #179 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:07 pm

It is doing exactly what NHC said it would do last night. They said the High wasn't strong enough to send it back west, but the steering currents weren't strong enough to take it along out to sea with the trough.

The latest movement is a stall and nudge back WSW. The storm has much better form and spin than last night and the convection is curving in as if the storm is strengthening.

If NHC is correct Franklin will drift and bump off the High in this steering limbo, as it is presently doing, until the next trough kicks it out to sea. A WV of the CONUS shows the next trough to be pretty vertically alligned, so it should do the job.

The only thing that could vindicate Mike18xx would be a quick movement west now before the next trough. But the WV also shows Franklin to be pretty engrained in the trough. Sort of like trying to pull someone out of a moving stream while trailing a parachute in the current...

Rainband · #180 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:09 pm

I agree. Interesting. It may be wobbling from ene to wsw.

Why Franklin may LOOP after all

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