TS Franklin Recon Reports

[mike18xx]

Franklin is moving southwest now.

[wxman57]

Here's a new McIdas shot of the center. Bemuda is that yellow dot on the right side:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/franklin36.gif">

[cycloneye]

039
URNT11 KNHC 251715
97779 17094 20298 71100 03000 31029 23233 /0010
43020
RMK AF308 0606A FRANKLIN OB 13

[Air Force Met]

Seriously, if this hadn't been a TS already, would ANY of you be saying that this is a TS based upon satellite imagery, and the fact that it's now behind a cold front? Those FL winds of 51 kts won't translate down to the surface as they would with a wam core TS.

Pressure is down too...I think the baroclinic processes have begun to take over.

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 251709
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/16:40:00Z
B. 31 deg 03 min N
069 deg 40 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. 45 deg 109 nm
F. 116 deg 038 kt
G. 047 deg 051 nm
H. EXTRAP 999 mb
I. 23 C/ 223 m
J. 25 C/ 279 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /01
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF308 0606A FRANKLIN OB 12
MAX FL WIND 52 KT E QUAD 15:21:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.



Is the first time that this storm has a pressure below 1000mbs.

[deltadog03]

yes

[cycloneye]

093
URNT11 KNHC 251737
97779 17354 20303 73000 79200 36023 72791 /8050
RMK AF308 0606A FRANKLIN OB 15
LAST REPORT


Mission is over.Next one will be this evening after 2300z.

[Thunder44]

Seriously, if this hadn't been a TS already, would ANY of you be saying that this is a TS based upon satellite imagery, and the fact that it's now behind a cold front? Those FL winds of 51 kts won't translate down to the surface as they would with a wam core TS.

I agree to, but the recon data doesn't lie. Is there anything from it that tells if this a warm core system or cold core system?

[HURAKAN]

Seriously, if this hadn't been a TS already, would ANY of you be saying that this is a TS based upon satellite imagery, and the fact that it's now behind a cold front? Those FL winds of 51 kts won't translate down to the surface as they would with a wam core TS.

I agree to, but the recon data doesn't lie. Is there anything from it that tells if this a warm core system or cold core system?

Franklin is still a warm-core system, but looks cold-core because it's an extremely sheared warm-core system.

By the way, most of the systems in th EPAC die looking worse than what Franklin looks now (at least he has some sheared convection). Most of the systems in the EPAC die without a cloud over their heads and are still referred as warm-core swirls.

[wxman57]

Here's a new satetllite with ship reports plotted. Mostly 20-25 kts around Franklin at the surface. Those 50kt FL winds just don't seem to be making it down to the surface as 35kts+. That's often the case in highly sheared systems surrounded by dry air. Standard FL reduciton factors do not apply.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/franklin41.gif">

Bonnie in 1998 was a good example of a hurricane that just didn't carry its winds down to the surface very well. Happens more frequenly with sheared systems and those that have entrained cool and/or dry air:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/bonnie.gif">

[mike18xx]

...but there aren't any ships were it counts....?

[wxman57]

...but there aren't any ships were it counts....?

And where does it count? Near the weak eddy marking the center? In that one or two thunderstorm cluster 75 miles east of the center? Sure, these thunderstorms could be producing winds of 35 kts or higher, but probably not sustained winds (1 minute winds) in that range. Dvorak estimates are still 2.0, or 30 kts at 18Z. This just is not a tropical storm, regardless of what the NHC is calling it.

[StormsAhead]

Well, there was that ship report from 9z...37 knots...but other than that, the dropsondes show that there's little, if any, wind above 30 knots.
WCOB S 0900 29.20 -69.40 114 175 200 36.9 - - - - - 29.82 -0.05 77.0 - - 6.2

[Rainband]

looks like the eddy is filling in too.