Why Franklin may LOOP after all

[mike18xx]

I think he is starting to open up. You can see the LLC moving east...but the western side seems to be staying in place. This is typical when a system has been without convection for a while...the wind field spreads out.

I think what happened last night is this:

1. Surface front occluded Franklin as "lobe" of ridge-orbiting blow-off shoved convection to SE outer band; behind front, LLC began moving SSW. Franklin remains near the trough, however, and the southeastern convection is still impacted by trough-associated westerlies.
2. "Lobe" moves away, and Franklin's southeaster convection reinstensifies during diurnal maximum; it began wrapping toward the center (which responded by moving east toward it).
3. This morning, a second and bigger "lobe" of ridging came smacking down on Franklin, again shoving away and crippling trough-ensnared convection; LLC center begins moving SW.

Forward.... Will the LLC move far enough southwest that winds aloft become northeasterly?

[Ivanhater]

im getting tired of franklin!! either get out of the picture or do something!!

[Sanibel]

Forward.... Will the LLC move far enough southwest that winds aloft become northeasterly?

I doubt it. It's too late. Franklin is too deep into the general west-east synoptic flow to reverse west. The High is just a spinning feature within this otherwise west to east moving synoptic belt.

Franklin is right in the margin of the divergence area between the trough flow and the northeasterlies on the High's SE edge...

[Astro_man92]

Forward.... Will the LLC move far enough southwest that winds aloft become northeasterly?

I doubt it. It's too late. Franklin is too deep into the general west-east synoptic flow to reverse west. The High is just a spinning feature within this otherwise west to east moving synoptic belt.

Franklin is right in the margin of the divergence area between the trough flow and the northeasterlies on the High's SE edge...

So is it possible that frenklin is stuck and may continue to move back and forth until something happens like the sea temp start to drop or somthing.

[mike18xx]

I doubt it. It's too late.

30N is usually the killer....

[Sanibel]

Franklin (not "frenklin") will be pushed out to sea eventually by the weather coming across the US...

[Air Force Met]

1. Surface front occluded Franklin as "lobe" of ridge-orbiting blow-off shoved convection to SE outer band; behind front, LLC began moving SSW. Franklin remains near the trough, however, and the southeastern convection is still impacted by trough-associated westerlies.....

Forward.... Will the LLC move far enough southwest that winds aloft become northeasterly?

Not sure I would go as far to say it is occluded....but then again we may be having a definition problem...because by occluded I am defining it as an occulsion with the jet running through a triple-point. Right now...there is not jet runnig through a triple-point and there is no threat of TPC occuring....which there usually is in an occluded system. If by occluded you mean an influx of dry air and the fact the system is retaining little tropical characteristics and behaving more like a baroclinic system...then yes I would agree. The very fact the pressure is falling sans convection shows there is some baroclinic forcing going on...but looking at the amount of divergence over the system (massive)...that's not surprising that the boundary layer convergence is being offset by it...like in a baroclinic system.

Given this...the steering will be governed by the age old progging rules for a sfc low...which is it will be steered by the max wind around the first open contour aloft (700-500)...but those are in balance right now on opposite sides of the system...hence the stalling.

[mike18xx]

Franklin (not "frenklin") will be pushed out to sea eventually by the weather coming across the US...

The "weather" in Minnesota? How many days will that take to even reach the coast? If the ridge, with Franklin SE of it, moves off-shore ahead of that front, where does Franklin go?

[Sanibel]

Mike, be honest , you can see the High nudging slightly SW in the loop. It isn't "moving off the coast" or building north of Franklin.

Meanwhile the main movement to the NE and E of Franklin is a general synoptic flow east with the trough. The north Atlantic has a punching flow east as its main feature. Franklin's convection is mainly caught in this...

[mike18xx]

Mike, be honest , you can see the High nudging slightly SW in the loop. It isn't "moving off the coast" or building north of Franklin.

I didn't say it was moving off the coast; I merely asked you how the "weather" over the US was going to impact Franklin without that happening.

Meanwhile the main movement to the NE and E of Franklin is a general synoptic flow east with the trough. The north Atlantic has a punching flow east as its main feature. Franklin's convection is mainly caught in this...

I'm looking at fully-zoomed 1km shots of Franklin right now; small cumulus-congestus in the northern bands are sporadically firing, and having their tops ripped off by mid-level winds from the NNE. The trough-associated westerlies, I must therefore assume, are located higher and higher up the farther the LLC center becomes relative to the surface front to the southeast.

The LLC is continuing south as of 17:45utc. AFM may be right in that another cyclonic loop is in the offing....we'll see.

[Sanibel]

Mike,


Looking at the WV loop I see a strong feature diving through New England south towards Franklin.

Could this possibly be a punch of high pressure that will knock Franklin off the trough and send him west with the High?

This feature could possibly get on the east side of Franklin and build high pressure east of him?

[Sanibel]

Cyclonic loop?


I don't know. You might be on to something here Mike. This stall is different. It is more SW oriented and isn't returning east as quickly as last night's.

Could get very interesting...

[storm4u]

anyone from north carolina to nova scotia should be watching franklin just incase because with this season you never know!

[mike18xx]

A rather small upper-low appears to associated with (or is just moving over) Franklin at present; on WV, the low is the dark region between the lobes of anti-cyclonic-turning MCC cirrus blow-off which are orbiting down around the main ridge axis on the east coast.

[artist]

Mike - truly appreciate your very detailed analysis - really helps to learn things. with that being said - what would the implication be if the upper low is moving down over Franklin? Look forward to your reply.

[mike18xx]

If the upper-low continues southward in advance of the next MCC blow-off surge coming off the US, it should disassociate Franklin's LLC from any lingering tug of the departing trough. If the LLC couples with the ULL, then they'll move in tandem.

[artist]

sooo- send it back south and possibly west? Just want to make sure I understand. Thanks again!

[hurricanefloyd5]

sooo- send it back south and possibly west? Just want to make sure I understand. Thanks again!

please do????????????????

[Astro_man92]

Mike, be honest , you can see the High nudging slightly SW in the loop. It isn't "moving off the coast" or building north of Franklin.

I didn't say it was moving off the coast; I merely asked you how the "weather" over the US was going to impact Franklin without that happening.

Meanwhile the main movement to the NE and E of Franklin is a general synoptic flow east with the trough. The north Atlantic has a punching flow east as its main feature. Franklin's convection is mainly caught in this...

I'm looking at fully-zoomed 1km shots of Franklin right now; small cumulus-congestus in the northern bands are sporadically firing, and having their tops ripped off by mid-level winds from the NNE. The trough-associated westerlies, I must therefore assume, are located higher and higher up the farther the LLC center becomes relative to the surface front to the southeast.

The LLC is continuing south as of 17:45utc. AFM may be right in that another cyclonic loop is in the offing....we'll see.

Could you give a link to give a better image as to what u are talking about?

[mike18xx]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Make sure to maximize image quality and zoom factor.