Why Franklin may LOOP after all

artist · #201 Postby **artist** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:13 pm

Mike - can you see our ?'s above Astro's please. Thanks!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #202 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:35 pm

It appears to be moving southward again.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

mike18xx · #203 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:42 pm

What questions?

(BTW, there appear to be satellite problems...there's been no new imagery since 18:15.)

hurricanefloyd5 · #204 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:44 pm

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ........... moving wsw/sw/ssw

#205 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:55 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It appears to be moving southward again.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Of course it's moving southward...it's doing a cyclonic loop. By this evening it should be moving back to the SE or E. Beware though...it's hard to get a movement on the RAMSDIS site because that sat image there (the 1 km) is storm centered. IT's going to stay centered on the storm...not over the same geographical location. It's a lot easier to see movement when it's not storm centered. Try the GHCC site and zoom in...

mike18xx · #206 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:56 pm

They're all well over an hour old now -- I have 1930utc pics of Minnesota already, but nothing newer than 1815 in the trops (including the GHCC, which is usually the quickest to update).

Thunder44 · #207 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:57 pm

Actually I haven't seen any new images on the GHCC site come up after 18:15 UTC time. Satellite problems again?

#208 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:59 pm

mike18xx wrote:They're all an hour old now -- I have 1900utc pics of Minnesota already, but nothing newer than 1815 in the trops (including the GHCC, which is usually the quickest to update).

Same with the sats I get off my military sites. There's a problem somewhere effecting the whole system.

mike18xx · #209 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:04 pm

I have nice 1930-stamped zooms of big storms approaching Minneapolis....

Well, screw this: I'm gonna outside and watch 'em!

See y'all in a couple hours.

#210 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 4:26 pm

Latest vis shots show the cyclonic loop almost completed...it's moving east again.

#211 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 5:24 pm

mike18xx wrote:(Mike18xx shoves big pile of chips toward "Franklin will hit the US" spot on roulette table.)

So...did you lose all your money?

:lol:

mike18xx · #212 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 5:50 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
mike18xx wrote:(Mike18xx shoves big pile of chips toward "Franklin will hit the US" spot on roulette table.)
So...did you lose all your money?

Nope; all those particular chips I won in the first place when Franklin moved south -- so even if I lose 'em, the seed money is still intact. Ah well...that's what I get for letting my winnings "ride" for another roll.
:Chit:

...This stupid thing better not last as long as Ginger...that'll be one pain in the ass!

#213 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 6:06 pm

mike18xx wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
mike18xx wrote:(Mike18xx shoves big pile of chips toward "Franklin will hit the US" spot on roulette table.)
So...did you lose all your money?
Nope; all those particular chips I won in the first place when Franklin moved south -- so even if I lose 'em, the seed money is still intact. Ah well...that's what I get for letting my winnings "ride" for another roll.
...This stupid thing better not last as long as Ginger...that'll be one pain in the arse!

Oh...I thought from your post you were betting that Franklin was going to loop around and hit the US...and considering all the posts...I figured thats what you were betting on...not that it would move south a little bit...but loop back around totally. Either way...your piles gone :lol:

Never play roulette...terrible odds.

#214 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 6:10 pm

Franklin is going to die. Much sooner than later. I'm planning the services now. :lol:

mike18xx · #215 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 6:13 pm

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie.pl?sat+jpg+10tttt+600+800+aor+wv

That trailing front is becoming reeeeally elongated now, with the main low-associated portion now swinging past 40W in the north Atlantic south of Greenland.

Are any of the models hinting at E trending SE movement?

mike18xx · #216 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 6:17 pm

dhweather wrote:Franklin is going to die. Much sooner than later. I'm planning the services now.

I have never seen a LLC die over warm water in the Atlantic unless it was shredded by an easterly surge (and all of these cases involve Cape Verde systems traveling west in excess of 20mph).

#217 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 6:33 pm

mike18xx wrote:
dhweather wrote:Franklin is going to die. Much sooner than later. I'm planning the services now.
I have never seen a LLC die over warm water in the Atlantic unless it was shredded by an easterly surge (and all of these cases involve Cape Verde systems traveling west in excess of 20mph).

Roxanne...1995. Died over the BOC after sitting there for too long....and was a very frustrating storm to forecast. Roxannes spin itself so long it upwelled.

Grace in '97 got sheared to death and died a naked swirl. Debbie in '94 died from shear...over the CAR...and was only moving at 17...Ernesto also died that way in '94...over warm waters. Karen in '89 (late season but still over warm water).

These are just the ones off the top of my head (and not counting TD's)...so it does happen. If something sits there long enoug and with steady shear...it's toast...regardless of how warm the water is. Franklin's only saving grace right now is that it has been baroclinically forced into a lower pressure...but even those days are numbered.

mike18xx · #218 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 6:35 pm

It looks like convection is wrapping around as the sun sets....

#219 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 6:38 pm

mike18xx wrote:It looks like convection is wrapping around as the sun sets....

Wouldn't be surprised to see another loop once it catches the convection (or gets pulled that way). The way the flow is opening to the north...I can picture the LLC rotating in and then out again.

mike18xx · #220 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 6:54 pm

It looks to me like the westerly shear has diminished enough for them thar' CBs to actually make it all the way around....but I might just be seein' things.

Why Franklin may LOOP after all

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