Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes Possible Today!

[VAWXWatcher6]

This is from the SPC 0600 update...



...SRN NY/CENTRAL-ERN PA/NJ/DE/MD/CENTRAL-ERN VA/DC...
A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD FROM CENTRAL-ERN OH SWWD THROUGH ERN KY TO NWRN AL...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY BE ONGOING
OVER PORTIONS OF PA/SRN NY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH CLOUDINESS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON LIMITING SURFACE HEATING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD AID IN CREATING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FROM PORTIONS OF ERN PA/NJ INTO NY. FURTHER SOUTH...LESS
CLOUDINESS WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TO RESULT IN A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ERN VA/DC/MD...DELMARVA AND INTO SERN PA.

AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES WILL INCREASE SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG WITH
SUPERCELLS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES /SFC-
1 KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND MODERATE TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES FROM FAR SRN NY SWD THROUGH ERN PA/NJ TO
MD/ERN-SRN VA/DE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FROM SRN-SERN PA/SRN NJ SWD INTO MD/VA/DE AND DC...
WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FROM SUFFICIENT SURFACE
HEATING.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND/OR REDEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH WRN-CENTRAL NY/WRN-CENTRAL PA TO
VA...WITH SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND TO ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z...AND THEN OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT.

---

this is from sterling, va (AFD)


Decent instability with cape betwn 1500 and 2k lifted index near - and totl totl
around 45. No cap apprnt. Shear is also good with helicity between
150 and 200. Strong middle and upper level flow moving in during the
morning. Will likely see a decent outbreak of severe over the county warning area today.
Amount of debris cloudiness holding back temperatures and jet position are
liabilities. If clouds break up and surface temperatures are allowed to rise
unchecked...outbreak will be substantial and as Storm Prediction Center indicates will
supprt tornadoes. Storm Prediction Center has most of our area in moderate risk today
with slght risk for the western counties.

[mamadude]

Im in a moderate risk down my way also......YIKES

[VAWXWatcher6]

looks like the severe weather risk has droped a lot since this morning for VA even know SPC still has us in MDT risk looks like most of the storms will stay north of Virginia and we be lucky to see iso. storms...