Atlantic Waves,Discussions and sat pics

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So it would take a more southerly course over the next few days? (I am referring to the wave that has just split, the first wave of the train of waves)

[cycloneye]

The next one is ready to move offshore tomorrow...

Hyperstorm about that one about to exit you see it in a good position in latitud to be a threat down the road?

[Hyperstorm]

The first wave would definitely take a more southerly course because of the difference in latitude of the northern part vs. southern part, but right now the pattern doesn't support a 270 westward course. Once (if) it becomes vertically stacked, it will start moving WNW, depending on the usual wobbles, it may or may not be a threat toward the islands. IF there were an area more at risk, it will be the northern islands as the current pattern doesn't support a Dennis or Emily track.

The same goes for the wave about to move offshore. Things can change for this one, but the current synoptic scenario doesn't move it directly toward the west...

[cycloneye]

Agree about the pattern because the ridge is not as strong as in other times.Yeah and that would pose a threat to the islands east of Puerto Rico in latitud.If it develops it will be a slow proccess as still there is some dry air around that may cause disruptions to the disturbance.Regardless of what occurs it looks like the CV season will open it's gates very soon.

And dont look inside Africa as there is a big bomb in the middle of the continent but I will wait until it gets closer to the coast to see the structure and at what latitud it will emerge.

[cycloneye]

My take this morning about the waves is as follows:

Wave #1=Wave around 40w has not becomed any better organized this morning as dry air intrusions has not let the system organize although most of the dust is at the northern extent of the wave.ITCZ related convection is located at the southern end of the wave axis.I dont see this wave doing more organization unless that dry air fades.I give it only a 5% chance to become a Tropical Cyclone at this time.

Wave #2=This wave is getting ready to emerge the western african coast later today in a fairly low latitud.It is seen at sat imagerys a spin with it around 9-10n.This wave has much more moist air that will help it distint from the wave in front.I give it a 20% chance to turn into a Tropical Cyclone but that number may increase as the days progress.

[cycloneye]

Wave #2 as I said at post above IMO will get an invest tommorow as I see this one well organized as it is emerging Western Africa.The wave in front #1 still looks like is not in a hurry to organize.

[cycloneye]

Another view of waves inside Africa amd emerging.My best shot for development is the one emerging Africa.Wave at the middle of continent has weakened a little bit this morning.

[wxmann_91]

Another view of waves inside Africa amd emerging.My best shot for development is the one emerging Africa.Wave at the middle of continent has weakened a little bit this morning.

The wave just emerging still has to be seen whether it can develop. Likely the wave will lose convection over the next 24 hours. Still, I think that that has a good chance of developing over the next few days, the outflow is good, it's at a low latitude. Invest could be up tomorrow, but probably not today.

The wave in central Africa still has a long ways to go before reaching the Atlantic. As of right now I don't think it matters how much convection it has. The most important thing is how much convection it retains over the Atlantic, and what latitude it emerges.

But no matter what, it looks like the CV Season has begun!

[cycloneye]

The wave just emerging still has to be seen whether it can develop. Likely the wave will lose convection over the next 24 hours. Still, I think that that has a good chance of developing over the next few days, the outflow is good, it's at a low latitude. Invest could be up tomorrow, but probably not today.

Agree with an invest for that one tommorow.It has a good structure on it with a low embedded at low latitud around 9n.

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 9.5N 16.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 27.07.2005 9.5N 16.1W WEAK

00UTC 28.07.2005 9.9N 18.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.07.2005 9.5N 21.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 29.07.2005 9.2N 25.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

UKMET already is jumping on wave emerging Africa although it has not many plots.

[cycloneye]

A LARGE CLUSTER OF
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION...LOCATED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TRPCL WAVE...IS SLIDING OFF THE COASTS OF GUINEA AND SIERRA
LEONE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 13W-20W.

From 2:05 Discussion:

[wxwatcher91]

what about the two behind 92L??? they look great and they have been out over water for about 6 hours now...

[cycloneye]

I am still bullish on wave emerging Africa but that big cluster that has formed just WSW of the Cape Verde islands is getting my attention a little more this afternoon.

[Hurricaneman]

92l looks like it wont develop, but well see

[wxmann_91]

I am still bullish on wave emerging Africa but that big cluster that has formed just WSW of the Cape Verde islands is getting my attention a little more this afternoon.

Me too. I thought it was a gonner, but now that it has moved WSW into warmer waters its convection has increased. If it could move a bit more WSW and if its convection can persist, an invest could go up on that too. Still think though the other wave to the east has better potential, as it's at a lower latitude, its convection has held up pretty nicely (though it's beginning to wane somewhat now), and its outflow is still quite nice.

Two more invests by tomorrow evening? We will find out...

[Ivanhater]

92l looks like it wont develop, but well see

it will if thunderstorms start to form around it, which shoul happen the farther west it moves

[mike18xx]

92L is total junk -- basically just the interface of the SAL-associated surge mashing down on the ITCZ.

The behind it looks like it'll take off.

[fci]

92L is total junk -- basically just the interface of the SAL-associated surge mashing down on the ITCZ.

The behind it looks like it'll take off.

Poor 92L being labeled "junk" by Mike

[Hyperstorm]

Just checked the tropical Atlantic for the day, and let me tell you that I'm surprised at something.

I'm not surprised at 92L as I thought this one had a good potential, but I'm quite surprised at the wave right behind 92L, which is showing signs of immediate organization. And I mean, IMMEDIATE.

Yesterday, the system was too far north to become something and I didn't put much attention on it, but TODAY is a WHOLE new story. The system has moved WSW today and convection has exploded over a surface circulation. This system is very much ready to be classified into our next tropical cyclone. As it continues to move toward the W-WSW, conditions will only improve. I expect a mention of this system in the Tropical Weather Outlook TODAY as it has a very good chance of becoming Harvey before 92L does.

The one moving offshore Africa........well, should I say it? Another likely tropical cyclone in the making...

BTW, 92L hasn't become any better organized during the day and I expect slow development until it moves farther west.

[Hurricaneman]

92l might not become the next tropical cyclone