92L Invest up

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:34 am

Here we go folks.

Thunder44 · #2 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:36 am

Damm you beat me to it, Luis! :grrr:

Here are 12z models

152
WHXX01 KWBC 261221
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050726 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050726 1200 050727 0000 050727 1200 050728 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.5N 31.0W 9.1N 34.4W 9.2N 37.8W 9.1N 41.4W
BAMM 8.5N 31.0W 9.0N 33.6W 8.5N 36.3W 7.7N 39.5W
A98E 8.5N 31.0W 8.8N 33.2W 9.3N 35.8W 9.8N 38.6W
LBAR 8.5N 31.0W 9.3N 33.8W 10.2N 36.8W 10.8N 39.9W
SHIP 20KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 20KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050728 1200 050729 1200 050730 1200 050731 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.8N 45.2W 8.6N 52.6W 8.8N 59.3W 9.1N 66.0W
BAMM 6.8N 43.1W 5.7N 51.1W 5.5N 59.9W 5.6N 68.1W
A98E 9.9N 41.4W 11.6N 47.0W 12.5N 52.7W 12.9N 57.6W
LBAR 11.4N 43.0W 12.2N 48.5W 11.5N 53.4W 8.5N 56.7W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.5N LONCUR = 31.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 8.3N LONM12 = 29.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 8.1N LONM24 = 27.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

#3 Postby **sweetpea** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:38 am

Is this for the 1st wave or the 2nd one?

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:40 am

Looks like a Emily Track.

#5 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:40 am

What happened with the intensity? 0.

boca · #6 Postby **boca** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:42 am

Judging by the numbers this system will go south of PR at least for right now. Alot of low trackers this here.I wonder if we'll get a system to track further north this year otherwise the Yucatan and Gulf will be in for a long season,kind of like Florida 2004.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:43 am

sweetpea wrote:Is this for the 1st wave or the 2nd one?

First wave that we were discussing last night at my thread of waves.

otowntiger · #8 Postby **otowntiger** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:44 am

I have a question. I will have to expose my ignorance here because no else as ignorant as me will ask. What is S.A.L.? There have been some other posts about it and I'm assuming it has to do with the big dust storm that originated in Africa. I've read comments about development not happening due to it's presence but it is never mentioned officially on the NHC site. I tried Google and got no answers. I usually wait for someone else as dumb as me to ask and then I'll get my answer, but so far no one has.

#9 Postby **sweetpea** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:44 am

Thanks cycloneye. I can't keep up with all these storms. :roll:

#10 Postby **Roxy** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:45 am

otowntiger wrote:I have a question. I will have to expose my ignorance here because no else as ignorant as me will ask. What is S.A.L.? There have been some other posts about it and I'm assuming it has to do with the big dust storm that originated in Africa. I've read comments about development not happening due to it's presence but it is never mentioned officially on the NHC site. I tried Google and got no answers. I usually wait for someone else as dumb as me to ask and then I'll get my answer, but so far no one has.

Saharan Air Layer, don't ask me what it is though.

Derek Ortt · #11 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:45 am

there's not even a cloud where they have the center

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:46 am

I haved noticed that the initial plot at 31w is not where is the wave as it is well west around 37w from there.Maybe is a mistake in the initial plots?

boca · #13 Postby **boca** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:48 am

8.5n 31W is a mistake looks like around 37 to 38w

Coredesat · #14 Postby **Coredesat** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:50 am

boca wrote:8.5n 31W is a mistake looks like around 37 to 38w

That could explain why the SHIPS plots are mostly 0s.

Thunder44 · #15 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:53 am

I wonder if this invest is for real?

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:53 am

Thunder44 wrote:I wonder if this invest is for real?

Or is for wave emerging Africa as I expect one there.

#17 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:59 am

boca wrote:Judging by the numbers this system will go south of PR at least for right now. Alot of low trackers this here.I wonder if we'll get a system to track further north this year otherwise the Yucatan and Gulf will be in for a long season,kind of like Florida 2004.

There MAY not be a High pressure ridge protecting the northern GOM this time around like with Emily and Gert.

Duffy · #18 Postby **Duffy** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 8:02 am

Harvey in the Making
some "Lull" period eh? lol

#19 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 8:05 am

I dont understand. Why is that wave given an Invest? It doesnt look very impressive. The wave about to emerge from Africa looks far superior.

<RICKY>

beachbum_al · #20 Postby **beachbum_al** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 8:07 am

Do they know something that we don't? :lol:

I just knew that this would be a busy season but nonstop is not what I dreamed.

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