92L Invest up

flashflood · #41 Postby **flashflood** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:03 am

msbee wrote:ok, now that we are all eagerly..or not so eagerly..watching 92L, can we focus on where it goes first?
i.e., which if any islands
It's way to early to be talking about Floride or GOM and we in the islands are the first in line, if it develops.
I know there are only a few of us here but please don't forget us and our concerns
Thanks
:smile:

The company I work for has sales offices in st.maarten,st.thomas and PR. Strong Hurricanes like Luis & Hugo in the islands have affected our business here in FL, so we watch that area closely first before we worry about our area.

MortisFL · #42 Postby **MortisFL** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:04 am

The way this season is going I would not be surprise if we make it to J.[/quote]

Were gonna get way past that.

cinlfla · #43 Postby **cinlfla** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:05 am

I'm going to wait for Mr Ortt to do his analysis on 92L before I even try to guess where it's going. He seems to have a very good track record.

#44 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:06 am

I think Barbados, then Martinique, Dominica and St. Lucia are in for a blustery time with this one. Hopefully for y'alls' sake, 92L (Harvey if it gets named) doesn't have his act together yet and is only a Tropical Storm and not a hurricane until he passes your longitude!

#45 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:06 am

Duffy:

Come back here in 15-20 years when you have a family, home, mortgage, possibly a business to be concerned about and then tell us how exciting it is to see a powerful storm barreling at you. It's easy to say "bring it on" when it is not going to effect you personally and you have not yet developed a compassion for the rest of the human race outside of your immediate circle.

I think it is wonderful that there are so many young people showing such an interest in the tropical weather and some are handling it with the awe and dignity it deserves-Mike and Kevin to name two. This is not a contest. This is about live and death and preparing for what nature may bring us. This board is a place to learn (not cheerlead) about weather related phenomena. My advise (unasked for but given just the same) post less and read more. You will become a much better informed weather enthusiast.

Thanks,
Lynn

#46 Postby **EDR1222** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:07 am

I can't believe it. Step away from the forum for just a little while and all of a sudden another invest!

#47 Postby **sweetpea** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:08 am

HurricaneQueen wrote:Duffy:

Come back here in 15-20 years when you have a family, home, mortgage, possibly a business to be concerned about and then tell us how exciting it is to see a powerful storm barreling at you. It's easy to say "bring it on" when it is not going to effect you personally and you have not yet developed a compassion for the rest of the human race outside of your immediate circle.

I think it is wonderful that there are so many young people showing such an interest in the tropical weather and some are handling it with the awe and dignity it deserves-Mike and Kevin to name two. This is not a contest. This is about live and death and preparing for what nature may bring us. This board is a place to learn (not cheerlead) about weather related phenomena. My advise (unasked for but given just the same) post less and read more. You will become a much better informed weather enthusiast.

Thanks,
Lynn

GREAT post and so true.
Debbie

#48 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:09 am

They re-ran the models with a different starting point:

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050726 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050726 1200 050727 0000 050727 1200 050728 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.5N 39.0W 9.9N 41.9W 11.3N 44.7W 12.6N 47.1W
BAMM 8.5N 39.0W 10.1N 41.5W 11.6N 43.8W 13.0N 45.8W
A98E 8.5N 39.0W 8.8N 41.2W 9.5N 43.5W 10.6N 46.0W
LBAR 8.5N 39.0W 9.5N 41.8W 11.0N 44.9W 12.3N 47.9W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050728 1200 050729 1200 050730 1200 050731 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 49.1W 15.8N 52.4W 16.9N 55.5W 17.4N 58.5W
BAMM 14.1N 47.7W 16.0N 51.2W 17.1N 54.6W 17.6N 58.0W
A98E 11.8N 48.6W 14.2N 53.7W 16.7N 58.4W 19.2N 61.7W
LBAR 13.7N 50.6W 16.6N 54.8W 19.3N 57.6W 20.5N 58.7W
SHIP 38KTS 49KTS 56KTS 59KTS
DSHP 38KTS 49KTS 56KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.5N LONCUR = 39.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 8.3N LONM12 = 37.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 8.1N LONM24 = 35.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#49 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:11 am

You beat me 57 on that.

Now makes more sense and clears where it is.Now the pic at NRL will change soon.

dwg71 · #50 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:12 am

Those all point to a northerly track...

jax · #51 Postby **jax** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:13 am

graph?

dwg71 · #52 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:14 am

it takes a few minutes to update

here's the link..

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_92.gif

#53 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:15 am

jax wrote:graph?

That has not been updated yet with the new plots but soon it will.

caribepr · #54 Postby **caribepr** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:16 am

msbee wrote:ok, now that we are all eagerly..or not so eagerly..watching 92L, can we focus on where it goes first?
i.e., which if any islands
It's way to early to be talking about Floride or GOM and we in the islands are the first in line, if it develops.
I know there are only a few of us here but please don't forget us and our concerns
Thanks
:smile:

Trying to think of ways to make all of us aware of each other's reality...maybe posting our personal lat/long will let us keep better track of what it actually means as storms move across different areas? I have maps but I always forget, what the heck IS msbee's lat/long?? Etc. Maybe one of our stat keepers could make a chart if there are enough to make it worth it?

Culebra lat/long

18.33 - 65.33

#55 Postby **msbee** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:18 am

hurricane Queen
great post, Lynn
Please , people, these "bring it on" kind of posts are not helpful.
Barbara

#56 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:19 am

Pic focus of NRL has been changed to the center point of 8.5n-39.0w.

#57 Postby **bvigal** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:20 am

Where is the low?

8amTWD: "CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W/37W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT WITH A 1014 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. WAVE IS ON THE W EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS LIFTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 34W-39W."

NRL: first showing 8.5N 31W, NOW SAYING 39W

OK, that makes more sense! Has low now been relocated from 11N to 8.5N?

jax · #58 Postby **jax** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:21 am

saying "bring it on" will not bring a storm to any
paticular area... don't take it personal people...
no reason to attack and try to humiliate anyone
here that gets a little exited... lighten up a little

#59 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:21 am

Great idea, CaribePR. Why don't you start a thread for strictly lats and longs? If there are some younger members (not working) with more time on their hands perhaps they would like to volunteer to record the data and update it regularly-much like our age chart. Otherwise, I will be glad to do it.

Lynn

N. Naples, FL
26.3
81.8

St. Maarten
18.0
63.1

#60 Postby **Trader Ron** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:25 am

Hey Duffy,

I hope you keep posting the "bring it on baby " crap! There's quite a few people on S2 K who are hurting because of Hurricanes the past year.
One of these day's you will grow-up !

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