Why Franklin may LOOP after all

[dhweather]

He's almost looped in the last 6 hours - watch this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Hurricaneman]

This storm is loopy

[hurricanefloyd5]

can you all ay landfall???????????????

[mike18xx]

Maybe I need bifocals or something, but it sure looks like the ridge has finally built north of our tenacious little critter, mid- and high-level winds are veering around to the northeast, and Franklin's convection is shifting to south of the LLC in response.

[mike18xx]

Predictaguesstimate: There will an enormous blow-up of convection this evening and tonight.

[Sanibel]

Franklin is not springing east out of this loop yet like the other ones.


He very well may drift west, but the trough is plunging from the Mississippi. Maybe NW?

[Pebbles]

Predictaguesstimate: There will an enormous blow-up of convection this evening and tonight.

I usually expect that in some form due to diurnal effects.

[Ivanhater]

go away franklin!!!

[mvtrucking]

He's almost looped in the last 6 hours - watch this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It looked like almost a stall then WSW?

[Hurricaneman]

Franklin the pest

[mike18xx]

It looked like almost a stall then WSW?

Shh! It'll only go that direction if you whistle and pretend you're not watching it.

[mike18xx]

Predictaguesstimate: There will an enormous blow-up of convection this evening and tonight.

I usually expect that in some form due to diurnal effects.

I wrote that because the shear over the system has decreased dramatically today.

[mike18xx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Reasoning: The axis of the ridge (anchored at its SW end near Atlanta, GA) is stretching/building NE out over the North Carolina & Virginia (and north of Franklin) in response to increased subsidence under great quantities of blow-off generated by frontal convection. Franklin, south of the ridge axis, will drift west until encountering a weakness and recurving. Given favorable anti-cyclonic conditions developing aloft, Franklin should begin strengthening.

[Sanibel]

He could jerk north when that new convection catches the steering currents at that level...

[mike18xx]

AFAICT, there isn't any layer with a northward bias near Franklin right now.

[mvtrucking]

AFAICT, there isn't any layer with a northward bias near Franklin right now.

Mike18xx,
A bit off topic but I wanted to ask your opinion on what 92L will do and will the front make it as far south as the GOM later this week?If so, do you see any development taking place? Thanks.

[mike18xx]

92L is junk, and the front won't make it.

[Ivanhater]

92L is junk, and the front won't make it.

while were off topic, lol, what do you think the wave behind 92 will do and head?

[mike18xx]

WNW and become a TD.

[mike18xx]

A three-hour difference: