GOM later this week!

[raynpa]

The front will work to the coast Thursday and just offshore Friday. Drier air is progged for the area Friday into the weekend with most of the activity offshore. One thing we'll have to watch is the possiblity of Tropical Development along the front offshore early next week. Pattern favors this especially with high pressure aloft across much of the nation. Something has to happen underneath.

[dwg71]

The front will work to the coast Thursday and just offshore Friday. Drier air is progged for the area Friday into the weekend with most of the activity offshore. One thing we'll have to watch is the possiblity of Tropical Development along the front offshore early next week. Pattern favors this especially with high pressure aloft across much of the nation. Something has to happen underneath.

I dont think the front will make it offshore before washing out... We are still early in the season for that. I would like to have a bunch of early cold fronts this year, $500 electric bill is crazy..

[jasons2k]

The front will work to the coast Thursday and just offshore Friday. Drier air is progged for the area Friday into the weekend with most of the activity offshore. One thing we'll have to watch is the possiblity of Tropical Development along the front offshore early next week. Pattern favors this especially with high pressure aloft across much of the nation. Something has to happen underneath.

Curious - where did this come from?

The NWS Houston seems to think otherwise:

Overnight Discussion:
CONSIDERING THIS IS THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER...WE STAYED
CLOSE TO NAM SOLUTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...POSSIBLY PUSHING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY...AND THEN RETREATING NORTH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

Updated Today:
ON THURSDAY...THE ETA SHOWS THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
GRADUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF. WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE ETA SOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS SE TX BEFORE DISSIPATING.

[raynpa]

It came from a local met. here in Beaumont........They are usually on the money. I guess we will see.

[Hurricaneman]

Put your faith in the hurricane center for the forecast

[jasons2k]

Ya know, even the NWS is inconsistent in their discussion here, in the general discussion they expect it to hang-up and become diffuse. The Marine discussion states otherwise:

.MARINE...
BELIEVE THAT A WEAK FRONT WITH HELP FROM CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE ON THU...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...BEFORE LOSING IDENTITY AT SOME POINT ON FRIDAY. WILL
ADVERTISE OFFSHORE WINDS ON THU AND EARLY ON FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH A LIGHT SW FLOW THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT COULD END UP COMING FROM ANY DIRECTION.

This may be something to watch after all. JB said this AM to watch a stalled boundry in the NW Gulf for possible dev. We'll see...

[WeatherEmperor]

Put your faith in the hurricane center for the forecast

thats what I always do.

<RICKY>

[raynpa]

Im sure the Hurricane center will make note of this feature later this week.

[Stormcenter]

The front will work to the coast Thursday and just offshore Friday. Drier air is progged for the area Friday into the weekend with most of the activity offshore. One thing we'll have to watch is the possiblity of Tropical Development along the front offshore early next week. Pattern favors this especially with high pressure aloft across much of the nation. Something has to happen underneath.

I dont think the front will make it offshore before washing out... We are still early in the season for that. I would like to have a bunch of early cold fronts this year, $500 electric bill is crazy..

$500 electric Bill?!?!?!?!? How big is your house?

[baygirl_1]

from our mobile, al nws office:

.LONG TERM...DEEP RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFERABLY THE GFS DEPICTS THIS SYSTEM TO STALL EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY...GENERALLY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE CENtRAL GULF COAST...BEGINNING LATE THU CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS MORE SEASONABLE LIKE CONDITIONS FOR JULY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH HEAT INDICES REMAINING BELOW 100 ALONG WITH INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO STALL EXPECT A SERIES OF WEAK S/WAVES TO BEGIN MOVING FROM SW TO NE...EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH... AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE THIS PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS NOT COMMON FOR JULY.
UNFORTUNATELY...AS THIS SCENARIO SETS UP BY LATE IN THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ALSO...AS THE MAIN TROUGH STALLS JUST TO THE WEST DEEPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN PW'S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. INITIALLY...STARTING LATE THU INTO FRI SOME STORMS COULD BECOME BIT STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DRY AIR STILL LINGERING ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH FRI DUE TO ITS BETTER INITIALIZATION WITH THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. /32
.MARINE...SW FLOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF. OVERALL...MAIN IMPACT OF COLD FRONT WILL BE TO STALL JUST NORTH OF MARINE AREA...

now, please correct me if i'm wrong, but from this it seems the front is going to stall before it makes into the gulf. wouldn't the front have to make it all the way to the gulf and stall for anything to develop?

[dhweather]

from our mobile, al nws office:

.LONG TERM...DEEP RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFERABLY THE GFS DEPICTS THIS SYSTEM TO STALL EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY...GENERALLY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE CENtRAL GULF COAST...BEGINNING LATE THU CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS MORE SEASONABLE LIKE CONDITIONS FOR JULY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH HEAT INDICES REMAINING BELOW 100 ALONG WITH INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO STALL EXPECT A SERIES OF WEAK S/WAVES TO BEGIN MOVING FROM SW TO NE...EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH... AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE THIS PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS NOT COMMON FOR JULY.
UNFORTUNATELY...AS THIS SCENARIO SETS UP BY LATE IN THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ALSO...AS THE MAIN TROUGH STALLS JUST TO THE WEST DEEPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN PW'S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. INITIALLY...STARTING LATE THU INTO FRI SOME STORMS COULD BECOME BIT STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DRY AIR STILL LINGERING ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH FRI DUE TO ITS BETTER INITIALIZATION WITH THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. /32
.MARINE...SW FLOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF. OVERALL...MAIN IMPACT OF COLD FRONT WILL BE TO STALL JUST NORTH OF MARINE AREA...

now, please correct me if i'm wrong, but from this it seems the front is going to stall before it makes into the gulf. wouldn't the front have to make it all the way to the gulf and stall for anything to develop?

Yes, and I don't think the front will make it into the gulf.

[jasons2k]

from our mobile, al nws office:

.LONG TERM...DEEP RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFERABLY THE GFS DEPICTS THIS SYSTEM TO STALL EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY...GENERALLY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE CENtRAL GULF COAST...BEGINNING LATE THU CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS MORE SEASONABLE LIKE CONDITIONS FOR JULY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH HEAT INDICES REMAINING BELOW 100 ALONG WITH INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO STALL EXPECT A SERIES OF WEAK S/WAVES TO BEGIN MOVING FROM SW TO NE...EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH... AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE THIS PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS NOT COMMON FOR JULY.
UNFORTUNATELY...AS THIS SCENARIO SETS UP BY LATE IN THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ALSO...AS THE MAIN TROUGH STALLS JUST TO THE WEST DEEPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN PW'S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. INITIALLY...STARTING LATE THU INTO FRI SOME STORMS COULD BECOME BIT STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DRY AIR STILL LINGERING ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH FRI DUE TO ITS BETTER INITIALIZATION WITH THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. /32
.MARINE...SW FLOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF. OVERALL...MAIN IMPACT OF COLD FRONT WILL BE TO STALL JUST NORTH OF MARINE AREA...

now, please correct me if i'm wrong, but from this it seems the front is going to stall before it makes into the gulf. wouldn't the front have to make it all the way to the gulf and stall for anything to develop?

Yes. But keep in mind a front can easily push offshore TX but still be onshore further east.

EDIT: Don't think it will actually make it though.

[baygirl_1]

Yes. But keep in mind a front can easily push offshore TX but still be onshore further east.

EDIT: Don't think it will actually make it though.

true, true... guess we just have to watch and see.

[beachbum_al]

Hey I just want cooler temps. These temps are crazy!

[WeatherEmperor]

Hey I just want cooler temps. These temps are crazy!

tell me about it. my swimming pool is showing 92F. After a while it becomes uncomfortable to even swim anymore.

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

this is from the nws in dallas.....

GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT ON THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTUALLY MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO...WHICH IS NOT ONLY REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT STRENGTH OF
THE POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS...BUT ALSO REMARKABLE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

[Swimdude]

[southerngale]

It came from a local met. here in Beaumont........They are usually on the money. I guess we will see.

This is where the snippet came from.
http://www.kfdm.com/weather.shtml

[Dean4Storms]

The front does'nt necessarily have to push off the coast for it to cause enough instability out in front of it with mainly clusters of TStorms being driven offshore to get some development out of it. We will have to watch areas of Tstorms that push offshore ahead of the front IMO.

[dwg71]

The front will work to the coast Thursday and just offshore Friday. Drier air is progged for the area Friday into the weekend with most of the activity offshore. One thing we'll have to watch is the possiblity of Tropical Development along the front offshore early next week. Pattern favors this especially with high pressure aloft across much of the nation. Something has to happen underneath.

I dont think the front will make it offshore before washing out... We are still early in the season for that. I would like to have a bunch of early cold fronts this year, $500 electric bill is crazy..

$500 electric Bill?!?!?!?!? How big is your house?

3017