Driest/Worst Monsoon by my records

[azsnowman]

The Monsoon season thus far here in the White Mountains IS the driest on RECORD (my records anyway) Guess I should be happy for the measly .89" so far. Normally, by this time I've had over 3.60" of rain AND the worst part is, the outlook is GRIM

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

Grim isn't the word. I'm calling it the fiascosoon. We are in the same boat as I head towards the driest July on record.

Steve

[Hurricaneman]

I hate it for you guys in the sw

[PTrackerLA]

It's a shame you guys aren't getting the rain y'all need out there but it's bad here too. We're almost 16.5" BELOW normal for the year...we've only had 20.28" of rain this year compared to 52.19" 1 year ago at this time! Now that's why I've been hoping for a tropical storm or something because the 20% chance days just aren't going to cut into our deficits.

[Aslkahuna]

Sunrise surprise here-boomers popped up overhead at 4:45 AM and dropped 0.85in of rain in about an hour.

Steve

[azskyman]

We had one heck of storm on Wednesday afternoon just northwest of me in north Phoenix. It planted itself over that area and rained for more than two hours in some spots. Standing water in a lot of places on my way to work.

Another storm today earlier in the afternoon near the Superstition Mountains in the far east valley.

Like most monsoon days, it is hit or miss. Where it rains, it rains plenty because there is virtually no movement to these storms where they pop up.

Not ready to give up on the season with so many of those isolated storms around today.

[azsnowman]

I'm giving up and throwing in the towel, ALL hopes of rain up here has FIZZLED!


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

FXUS65 KFGZ 281003 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 305 AM MST THU JUL 28 2005 .SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM TODAY COMPARED WITH WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY


Dennis

[JenBayles]

But think, Dennis - think! It wasn't so long ago we were all worried about the state of that brass monkey of yours out in the cold...

[Aslkahuna]

Well, there is an idea running around that the heavy snows in the AZ mountains and the Intermountain West has something to do with the late start to the monsoon since it took some time for the interior to warm up enough to begin the process of establishing the monsoon. However, this does NOT explain the recent late starts that followed dry winters with little snow cover. I tend to think that it's more closely tied to atmospheric pattern changes associated with the development of ENSO warm phase (El Niño) events. It appears that during Summers that both preceed and follow the winter onset of a Warm Phase event we have late starts though rainfall is not closely dependent upon when the monsoon starts. The rainfall as of late seems to have been somewhat tied to the increase in ATL Tropical activity and, most importantly, the corresponding decrease in EPAC activity along with a general lack of systems traversing the GOM into Southern TX and NE MX. In addition the Drought, which contrary to Popular Opinion is still very much with us despite a single wet winter, is also affecting rainfall by virtue of drying out the low levels and preventing
normal rainfalls from storms. There has also been a pattern change whereby areas that usually get the most monsoon rain has been bypassed while western and NW AZ is getting more.

Steve

[azskyman]

I know that just talking about it doesn't make it happen, but here in Phoenix, the talk among weather folks this morning on the radio is that dew points are up and that at least through Sunday the chances for rain and storms seems to be expanding, not diminishing.

Deeper moisture sources and a more conventional monsoon flow aloft seem to be their reasoning.

I don't have time to study the maps and soundings as I did so meticulously in my younger days, but I do keep one eye on the sky all the time (I finally work from an office with two windows to the outside!).

We'll see if they are singing a different song on Monday morning.

[azsnowman]

And yet ANOTHER DRY day during the Monsoon season AH WELL......it's OVER, winter will SOON be here!

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

Monsoon surge in progress behind a trough axis extending from a MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex) that resulted from last night's MCS in northern Sonora. The MCV has also triggered a Gulf Surge (YUM dewpoints were 79F this morning) into the low deserts. Along the trough axis as it propagates W-NW there are strong thunderstorms. Behind it we are getting typical surge conditions with cloudy skies, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Individual showers are not overly heavy but the rainfall is adding up. Nice cool day down here with highs in the low 80's and now in the upper 60's to low 70's with rain. local dewpoints are now in the mid 60's.

Steve

[azsnowman]

Saw on the news this morning where Tucson got SLAMMED last evening, FLOODING rains while we enjoyed BRIGHT, clear sunshine with temps WELL above normal, seems the norm this season!

Dennis

[azskyman]

We had some small, but very intense storms just to the north (about 20 miles) in the burn area from the fires earlier this season. Imagine there was a a lot of mud flowing through the washes and onto the roadway. Lightning at about 9 pm was continuous with no breaks whatsoever!

[Aslkahuna]

Parts of Tucson got slammed-close to where my son lives. We had rain alsmost all day from early afternoon until around sunrise this morning. It was a duration soaking rain totalling 0.79in with no thunder (typical monsoon surge weather). Puts us at 2.52 in for July-still below normal but a lot better than we were looking last week.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

We had a night boomer come over-typical tropical type storm which didn't have much LTG but plenty of rain. We picked up 0.74in in an hour's for 1.26in of rain today which brings us up to 3.36in for the month only 0.46 below normal for the month and we could possibly get more activity tomorrow.

Steve

[azskyman]

Once again, some parts of the northern metro Phoenix area got some decent rain yesterday afternoon....we managed to eek out only .03". The opportunity for more rain seems significant enough today...but probably more widely scattered during the week.

Looks like Tucson and surrounds are getting some soaking rains...not all gullywashers!!!

[Aslkahuna]

In the past 36 hours, I've had 2.34in at the house and Nogales has had 2.19in so we are definitely getting monsoon action though mostly at night.

Steve

[azskyman]

Well if it holds together and stays the course, looks like some storms off to the southeast will bring some welcome rains to at least some of Maricopa County late this afternoon and into the evening.

[azskyman]

Well...only .07" here but significantly more five minutes east and five minutes north. Still, parts of the metro area did get beneficial rains last evening...with the usual accompanying wind gusts and a few uprooted trees!