Why Franklin may LOOP after all

[mike18xx]

I can't tell for certain, but I believe the LLC is moving, or has already moved, south closer to the huge blow-up in waning daylight frames: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

[Sanibel]

Dead stall.

The Gulf Stream is transporting fresh warm water under it as it sits...

[mike18xx]

The Gulf Stream hugs the coast, and doesn't go under Franklin's current position. But an LLC with lights winds doesn't stir the ocean that much (the TS-force winds are away in the bands).

[mike18xx]

Reasoning: The axis of the ridge (anchored at its SW end near Atlanta, GA) is stretching/building NE out over the North Carolina & Virginia (and north of Franklin) in response to increased subsidence under great quantities of blow-off generated by frontal convection. Franklin, south of the ridge axis, will drift west until encountering a weakness and recurving. Given favorable anti-cyclonic conditions developing aloft, Franklin should begin strengthening.

Go here: http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
...and set quality to high and zoom-factor to LOW, select 30-frame animation, then click Cape Hatteras.

No way in Spotted Heck is Franklin moving NE anytime soon.

[DAVE440]

Nice blow up of convection! Could just be the infra red but looks like a slight S or SE movement. Probably stationary in reality tho.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

THE THING JUST WON'T GIVE UP!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Franklin has not been around very lone. He is childs play when it comes to how long his kind can last. Kyle lasted 3 weeks. Ivan Over 70 Advisories,Lisa 50+,Jeanne 50+. In alot more where that came from. Kyle had over 9- Adivsories writen on him.

So Franklin would have to be around another week or two. Before he even touches the surface. Tonight he doe's look good. In I expect him to regain some of what he losted over the next 24 hours.

[mike18xx]

If the track I posted on the previous page materializes, Franklin could even achieve hurricane status.

The convection this evening is even managing to carve out a small anti-cyclone aloft.

[Sanibel]

The flow to the north is now visibly east to west.


Franklin stationary...

[mike18xx]

All they really know is that it was stationary up until Tuesday afternoon; since then, the LLC has been obscured.

[Astro_man92]

Here is frenklins track :

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200506.asp

computer modles
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... ture=track

cumulative wind:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... ture=track

sattilinte image:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 6_sat.html

discusion:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200506.disc.html

and a historical map:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

[drdoom]

Just like my little brother Franklin. He seems disappointed that a storm finally named after him didn't get cat 5 and hit central florida. He was slammed hard by charley last year, tree through his roof and all and loves hurricanes. I'm 50 50 now after not having power in August for a week. Cold showers, no gas, eating out, too hot to sleep. Charley came so close to me it made my ears hurt. They are exciting events. Just hope for the best.

[Sanibel]

He could jerk north when that new convection catches the steering currents at that level...

Poleward right on cue...

[mike18xx]

[mike18xx]

Wanna see the Gulf Stream? Check it out: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir2-loop.html

[Pebbles]

Mike hun, Now if your prediction doesn't pan out... you gonna come over to my thread for dinner? Just wanna make sure I leave some for ya just in case... *teases*

[mike18xx]

It's already moved NW, Pebbles; the Navy fixes even have it pegged as doing so. You can watch it right here, too: http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

Which basically means I'm partially satisfied that I've read the ridge thing more correctly that whatever GIGO-fed models the other guys are using which were running it straight to Iceland.

[Sanibel]

Creeping NW.


Good outflow along the beard of convection to Franklin's south. Everything else sheared badly north to south...

[mike18xx]

Discussion continued at: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69238

[Pebbles]

It's already moved NW, Pebbles; the Navy fixes even have it pegged as doing so. You can watch it right here, too: http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

Which basically means I'm partially satisfied that I've read the ridge thing more correctly that whatever GIGO-fed models the other guys are using which were running it straight to Iceland.

I was mostly just picking on ya..

[Thunder44]

Franklin 18z Models initialized at 45kts at a 331 to 340 heading, still moving NNW

317
WHXX01 KWBC 271901
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN (AL062005) ON 20050727 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050727 1800 050728 0600 050728 1800 050729 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.6N 69.3W 35.2N 69.8W 37.4N 68.8W 40.0N 65.6W
BAMM 33.6N 69.3W 35.0N 69.7W 37.1N 68.8W 39.4N 66.0W
A98E 33.6N 69.3W 34.7N 69.3W 36.6N 68.0W 39.5N 64.6W
LBAR 33.6N 69.3W 34.9N 69.2W 36.6N 68.1W 38.5N 66.0W
SHIP 45KTS 47KTS 48KTS 49KTS
DSHP 45KTS 47KTS 48KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050729 1800 050730 1800 050731 1800 050801 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 42.6N 60.6W 48.0N 46.2W 52.4N 25.4W 49.9N 7.1W
BAMM 41.7N 62.1W 46.7N 50.0W 51.5N 31.9W 53.0N 11.8W
A98E 42.5N 59.4W 48.3N 39.7W 47.6N 18.2W 38.9N 16.0W
LBAR 40.6N 62.9W 48.6N 51.2W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 47KTS 40KTS 31KTS 17KTS
DSHP 47KTS 40KTS 31KTS 17KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.6N LONCUR = 69.3W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 32.8N LONM12 = 68.8W DIRM12 = 331DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 32.3N LONM24 = 68.3W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 190NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 40NM