NWS Melbourne says FL safe?

[DESTRUCTION5]

SAT-TUE...A CONTINENTAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WILL DRAW THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WELL N OF
THE FL. MID RANGE MODELS INDICATING A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES
RIDING AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHING TOWARD THE
FL PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOW MUCH
MOISTURE ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO FL WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC. THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
CURRENTLY IS IN A NEGATIVE PHASE AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. THIS WOULD SUPPORT WEAKER RIDGING
OVER THE WRN ATLC...WHICH IN TURN OPENS THE POSSIBLILITY FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO BYPASS FL TO THE E. BEST PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE SAT AS THE CONTINENTAL/ATLC RIDGE SHOULD BLOCK PROGRESS OF THE
INITIAL TROPICAL WAVE. WILL KEEP POPS AOB 40% THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

Then again the end of the month is in 5 days...

[vbhoutex]

I don't think that is what they are saying. It appears to me that they are saying that if anything, the pattern will leave a larger or more easterly weakness for the waves to ride along, which COULD (WHICH IN TURN OPENS THE POSSIBLILITY FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO BYPASS FL TO THE E) allow them pass to the East of the Peninsula. It does mention a possibility, but certainly doesn't say FL is safe. I hope all of us are safe for a long time now. It has already been a hectic and rough season for some.

[EDR1222]

I had mentioned this discussion in another thread.

They say the negative pattern of the NAO should persist for the short term, but they really don't know for how long.

I agree, it would be great if it stays that way for a while and maybe at least allow more opportunity for more storms to recurve while still out in the open ocean.

[Rashid]

as of now, it does look like the weakness is significant enough to allow the moisture from these waves to lift further north and affect the mid-atlantic coasts. that is only as of now and with the trough pushing east over the next couple of days, this will surely change by the time the waves make it that far west.

[gkrangers]

It does not take much for the ridge to slam storms into Melbournes area, either.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Out of Miami:

taken from NWS:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
230 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 27 2005


Discussion...weak surface trough is still with US today. Drier air
has moved into our zones as seen in the gpsmet. We also have an
upper circulation near 70w that so far has not moved much. Expect
this to move westward some as the ridge north of it builds. At
first glance thought this could act to keep the drier air over US
longer than earlier expected. Now not as certain. In any event will
still keep the probabilities below climate at least another day.
The tropical wave in the Atlantic near 45w is on a schedule for a
Sunday to Monday arrival. The strength of the upper ridge in the
Atlantic that will be building to its north will help determine if
it moves over US or not. For the time being will stay with the
solution that it will remain to our east and we will be on the dry
side of it. So the plan is to keep the Thursday afternoon and
evening convection on the eastern side of our zones. Let Friday be
the transition day and by Saturday start to shift the afternoon and
evening convection to the western side of our zones.

[NC George]

A newspaper in my state, the News and Observer, today declared the the door was opening for a tropical system to make a landfall, with the Bermuda high which was previously blocking our coastling moving offshore, and the Tennessee low building to our west, there will be a 'chute' (their words) for tropical systems to pass through that runs right over NC. Guess I need to reassemble my monster truck.

[Blown Away]

Ivanhater heard....
Joe B said on his video update this morning that 92L was going to head through the Florida straits and go in the gulf, he said it would not turn up toward the east coast.
Joe B vs NWS

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Both forecasts seem to keep it off the FL peninsula, one takes it to our east, and the other to our south...