Space Weather effects tropical intensifiction & developm

[mike18xx]

http://www.lightningstorm.comThere is the highest CONUS strike event of the year presently. 63k event.

That's to be expected: It's the first major front to break this heat-wave in the east, and the atmosphere has had an awful long time to dirty up with condensation-nuclei. In my experience, the first couple storms which break a dry-spell have the most lightning.

[Aslkahuna]

Well, that didn't take long-We have a M2.4 X-Ray event in progress right now and the SXI shows that it's a NE limb event-actually probably a bit beyond the limb yet. The proton flux has gone up further and there are indications of a Solar Transient passage-could be a sector boundary or a co-rotating interaction region ahead of a coronal hole which could explain the increase in >10 MeV proton flux.

Steve

[mike18xx]

Pebbles, I think you're the funniest person I've, er, "met", in the last year!

[Pebbles]

Pebbles, I think you're the funniest person I've, er, "met", in the last year!

Who me? I'm just a .....
*whistles innocently*

[Jim Hughes]

I have been on the opposite side of the skeptics before so I know very well how that can go. Most of my own 3 day forecast periods for snowstorms , temperature anomaly trends, tropical systems forming .. etc...have been made 2-3 weeks in advance. Some slightly longer..some shorter..

My longest was when I forecasted a snowfall event for the Washington DC area in late November 1996 for February 7th-9th 1997. I gave this forecasts to a science writer of The Baltimore Sun on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. He was visiting my home to find out some things about my forecasting methods. ( Some others also received this forecast weeks in advance.)

I received six inches of snow on February 8th 1997 at my home in Montgomery Village MD. I had always used this location for snowfall totals since it could easily be monitored over the INTERNET by way of a local weather monitoring station instead of Reagan National Airport.

If you lived around here you would know why. The local OCM's have always complained about how they measure snowfall totals there. I used the latter as a measuring stick for all the other forecasts that I ever made..rainfall...temps' etc..

I will not get into all the details as to why this article in The Baltimore Sun was never written but it dealt with politics and the do's and don'ts of the scientific community...writers included. They like to watch out for their own just like all closed knit groups. Brethren stick together.

You mention that the NHC would be knocking on Mike's door if he showed any semblance of consistency or accuracy. Hmmm....Are you really sure about that? First you have to go through the channels...small fries... to get to anyone important at the NHC to look at something.

The first listener would love to hear your methodology and run to the teacher per say, like a good little student. Trust me the ego's get involved here. Everybody wants to be the person who solves a mystery...or science dilemma. I have some street sense from my early days from hanging around racetracks or wherever else. This is why I get suspicious when things do not add up.

I would like for you to explain how I can just recently get , 70 read receipts (Five or more of my e-mail discussions) from TWC OCM's/Experts between Mid March-late May 2005, about 10 or more written replies , climate experts included...and then they cease all of a sudden. The TWC forum base now goes debunk immediately after all of my postings about all the relationships that I had previously talked about. Science research paper about _My Theories_ on the way????

Why does a well know senior OCM from the Washington DC area , who has correspond with me dozens of time over the years from 1996 on wards, tell me that I am wasting my time about the coronal holes /solar flare effect upon weather/climate patterns but he then goes out right before solar maximum and hires a former USAF space weather forecaster/meteorologist .

This person may have been the best person available but I find this to odd of a coincidence. Was he hiring a space weather expert to look over my theories better? He very well could not follow things that he could not understand.

When I get junk e-mails I delete them but everybody else has been reading my junk science discussions for years. The bottom line is they know that I am on to something. They just hate the messenger. I am self taught about everything. They know from past discussions that I only have a high school education and I basically quit going to school in 10th grade. How could some dummy like me figure out something that the great ones couldn't ?

Only one local OCM has ever gotten down off of his high horse. He basically told me that he was fascinated by my theories , and that he was trying to follow my methodology, but it was extremely complicated. He also stated that he hoped that either NOAA or any other type of research institution would put some research dollars behind me theories.

I told many people a long time ago that I would share my methodology completely, formulas and all, if they guaranteed me that they would give me some credit , after the proper scientific statistical analysis was done.

How many takers? Zilch...It's very obvious that they want to take what I have found and take it to another level. They will then come out and say that I never proved it properly even though I have been forecasting by it for almost a decade.

Like I have always said. The fox is watching the hen house.

[Nimbus]

Some weather forecasts involve more random variables than others.
When you start talking about events that are forecast to happen weeks away you are usually limited to climatological odds.
Quantum weather forecasts from beyond the event horizon are not exactly mainstream.

[Aslkahuna]

Actually, the study of Space Weather-specifically that associated with disturbances in the Geomagnetic field and the upper atmosphere caused by eruptive Solar Events (Flares, DSFs, CMEs etc) and quiescent ones (Coronal Holes), and the possible effects upon the lower atmosphere is a legitimate area of study and one that is being pursued actively in the Academic Community. Mr. Doran's ideas of electrical and biological effects are outside the mainstream at this time and therefore it's difficult to make an assessment as the validity of those ideas. But that's not to say that they are flat out wrong either. The Scientific Community is by nature of the Scientific Method on the Conservative side and there are procedures to be followed to get the ideas and hypotheses looked at and accepted if they have merit.

Steve

[Wthrman13]

Actually, the study of Space Weather-specifically that associated with disturbances in the Geomagnetic field and the upper atmosphere caused by eruptive Solar Events (Flares, DSFs, CMEs etc) and quiescent ones (Coronal Holes), and the possible effects upon the lower atmosphere is a legitimate area of study and one that is being pursued actively in the Academic Community. Mr. Doran's ideas of electrical and biological effects are outside the mainstream at this time and therefore it's difficult to make an assessment as the validity of those ideas. But that's not to say that they are flat out wrong either. The Scientific Community is by nature of the Scientific Method on the Conservative side and there are procedures to be followed to get the ideas and hypotheses looked at and accepted if they have merit.

Steve

Which is all fine and good, but I have yet to see one coherent explanation of his "ideas". All I see are incredibly long ramblings and random jumblings of buzzwords. It's hard to judge the merits of such ideas from such a mess.

Also, if electric fields did have such a huge effect on day-to-day weather, none of our forecast models, which include no large scale electrical parameterizations whatsoever, would be able to come close to the level of prediction they show. I'm not discounting the idea that space weather may have some effect on terrestrial weather, particularly in the realm of thunderstorm electrification, and yes, *gasp* cloud microphysics. In fact there is current research, going on now (maybe you were referring to this) into the possibility that cosmic ray showers actually serve as the seed points for individual lightning strikes, in that they help to locally break down the electric potential when interacting with cloud particles. That, I believe, is a legitimate line of inquiry. What I am discounting is that somehow everyone in the meteorological community has missed this huge impact that electric fields have on the development of hurricanes, etc, especially when our models, theoretical, numerical, or otherwise do a fine job of explaining most of their observed features using the basic equations of atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics without invoking electrical field equations.

[Aslkahuna]

There's another area to look at with regard to Geomagnetic disturbances and Flares and that's the heating that occurs from 60km on up during these events (especially the Gemags). How does, if it does, the atmosphere compensate for this and if so what, if any, effect does this have downstairs.

An aside, last nights M3 event came from old returning region 786 and was followed by a Type II sweep and a Full Halo CME. Meanwhile we have a proton even of unknown origin and unmentioned by SEC in progress with >10 MeV proton flux now in excess of 10 pfu.

Steve

[schmita]

There's another area to look at with regard to Geomagnetic disturbances and Flares and that's the heating that occurs from 60km on up during these events (especially the Gemags). How does, if it does, the atmosphere compensate for this and if so what, if any, effect does this have downstairs.

An aside, last nights M3 event came from old returning region 786 and was followed by a Type II sweep and a Full Halo CME. Meanwhile we have a proton even of unknown origin and unmentioned by SEC in progress with >10 MeV proton flux now in excess of 10 pfu.

Steve

Now I got it !!!!!!!!!

[Wthrman13]

There's another area to look at with regard to Geomagnetic disturbances and Flares and that's the heating that occurs from 60km on up during these events (especially the Gemags). How does, if it does, the atmosphere compensate for this and if so what, if any, effect does this have downstairs.

An aside, last nights M3 event came from old returning region 786 and was followed by a Type II sweep and a Full Halo CME. Meanwhile we have a proton even of unknown origin and unmentioned by SEC in progress with >10 MeV proton flux now in excess of 10 pfu.

Steve

The heating above 60 km I would guess would have minimal effect on the lower-levels of the atmosphere, simply because the density of air 60 km and up is so low: there simply isn't much mass up there, and thus, although the temperatures may fluctuate quite a bit, the heat content must be extremely low.

[mike18xx]

1. I understand you "blaming" the Conservatives/Republicans for the problems enviornmentally and other wise-they deserve blame, but only half of it. The Democrats share the other half. Neither party, nor any party (even the environemntal movement) for that matter has ever tried to come to terms with the issues facing us today.

What do you suggest they do about all the new cars being bought by Indians and Chinese?

Do any of you have any idea of how just utterly ludicrous all of your pining for uber-socialist strait-jacketing of world economies is?

[mike18xx]

Well, I don't know how old the earth is (that the earth could be billions of years old via the "Gap Theory" is very tenuous at best), but I will grant you that I do believe Adam and Eve were created by God in a literal sense....

When people employ the word I have highlighted, they are leaving science behind for speculative fantasy.

For instance, there is absolutely no reason to conclude anything like that based of reason applied to evidence.

[sertorius]

Please allow me to calrify a few things-

1. My response was to Mike Doran and his ideas. I have been reading his thoughts for two years. The idea of a living earth-i.e. that nature itself is alive and we are a part of that makes sense to me even if I can't understand the math behind it. That does not mean I totally agree with all of his ideas. Hoover by himself can not be blamed as all of his dams had to be sanctioned by Congress-ie by both Republicans and Democrats. I do believe his ideas can be good forum material as it opens debate. On the other hand, Mike does need help in clarifying his arguments for more general audience. Perhaps he should post these thoughts on the Professional Tropics forum so a debate could be held with more professional mets etc. Just a thought

2. I am not a Socialist or a Marxist-I teach those theories but spend most of my time showing my students that history can not be explained thru Marxist ideals and that socialism as used today has done nothing but bankrupot nations and led to dictatorships.


3. Mike: you have been listening too much to Michael Moore-is Bush tied to big oil-you bet-but guess what so was Clinton and Gore and Ted Kennedy. Also, the environemtal industry is as big a political lobby and business as is big oil and they too have thier own agenda-to put themsleves in power. This is not conspiracy-this is how republics and rep. govts. have worked since day 1-any study of Greek and Roman politics will show you that. There were several Americans who were Nazi symp. in the 1930's from all walks of life. Similar to how Stalin was looked upon as a true Marxist and loved by all people of the left. My point in all this, is that untill we quit blaming each other and begin to offer solutions-I mean real solutions-(not everyone riding bikes etc.) we will continues to spread our wheels. Fossil fuels need to go-not because of the Green House Affect, but because 1. They are dirty and inefficient and 2. they create hoorendous world politics. Sorry about the rant


3. Hoover did not create the dust bowl-even if I agree with yopur Hydrology ideas, it would take the atmosphere much longer than 2 years to respond to the dams. In my area, this has been an almost 20 year process.

I hope this makes sense-I do own an suv-and you know what-it has come in real handy taking my kids camping, doing constuction projects etc. 10 8 ft 2 by 6 did not fit to well in my Honda Accord nor do they fit to well in my biking stroller or on the Lawrence bus system. If the suv were fueld by a cleaner better more effiecent fuel source, we are not having this conversation. Have a greta day.

[Jim Hughes]

Mike,

I have not read through all of the threads but it sure looks like you have kicked a hornets nest...Learned a long time ago about arguing over the INTERNET in the old TWC forum ... stay away from people who leave profile blank and use unreal names or none at all. Steve/Aslkahuna remembers why.

There was a SYOP who used a fictitious name and he played games with me by maliciously deleting my discussions. We argued all the time. It was a waste of my time. That is why I only debate with people I either know or whom I know about in regards to their training.

Let's see should I debate in this forum with no names...or should I have a discussion with an educational meteorologist from Montgomery County Maryland who is very well regarded. He recently had one of his cloud pictures made a stamp...his photograph of a rare local tornado was on the front page of the Washington Post a couple of years ago...He's a forensic meteorologist...I believe he also contributed to a research paper on the Fujita scale ... and he visited my home many years back to look into my research. No brainer....

I talk openly about private things like yourself.. 10th grade was when I lost interest in school and they lost interest in me...bored. When I took some test for the military five years later in 82' I was told I had my pick of careers. Math and science have always been my best subjects...

Scored 139 against my college wife in one INTERNET IQ test a while back... Know they are a joke somewhat...She was not happy that her score was lower, 129 ...... The funny thing was it's synopsis about my scores...Kid you not...You find patterns better than others and you have a way of explaining things more clearly.

Yes chemistry may be involved just like many other changes with the ionosphere..Like I mentioned in an earlier thread to someone I would first look at the E-layer or sporadic E connection. It's not that the others are not important...by any means...Radio propagation people have been talking forever about it's connection to thunderstorm activity etc...

Hurricanes like the two or three fishes last year in north Atlantic seem to have had an effect...The DX pPeople over in Europe...said Newfoundland stations were heard much clearer and frequently after the fishes trip up north...Know about the skipping - cloud hopping ....Many other examples of how things change when the DX' changes. One relationship deserves a look at reverse relationship...

Minor tidbit ..metal atoms hang around E-layer..because of their weight ... they also have low ionization potentials and they are not easily neutralized. So small amounts of radiation can cause ionization.

Remember the solar constant almost stays the same from minimum to maximum this was where all of the wasted early research went into. It wasn't until the 80's that we realized the sun was a magnetic variable star.

Now the UV connection doubles from minimum to maximum and the x-ray brightness of the corona can increase 100 fold....Plage/Faculae basically responsible for the UV changes. I have found their readings to be important in the scheme of things..especially ENSO phases...Hope to start a new post about the space weather / ENSO connection soon...very busy on home front.. I have to keep my ducks in order ....This comes second to my family.. BTW did you see Franklin strengthened right at the exact time I gave out a week ago in TWC forum? ...7/27/21z......Increased 10 MPH from 12 hours earlier...I guess this does not count either with the naysayers. Even mentioned a reminder a few days back in one of this forum's member post.. ( Tampa Bay Hurricane )

[Jim Hughes]

There's another area to look at with regard to Geomagnetic disturbances and Flares and that's the heating that occurs from 60km on up during these events (especially the Gemags). How does, if it does, the atmosphere compensate for this and if so what, if any, effect does this have downstairs.

An aside, last nights M3 event came from old returning region 786 and was followed by a Type II sweep and a Full Halo CME. Meanwhile we have a proton even of unknown origin and unmentioned by SEC in progress with >10 MeV proton flux now in excess of 10 pfu.

Steve

Steve,

Been noticing recent rises in most aspects...saw we had another LDE - M - flare...have noticed things with their LDE signature..LDE on rise or fall.. No new region numbered in last night's report.....didn't see yours of course ...I guess it's still behind limb...Going to look at region monitor soon for images....

[Aslkahuna]

The LDE signatures seem typical of still beyond the limb events which may also be involving DSF's though there are no reports of any EPL's just yet just typical LPS's.

Steve

[slowjoe]

OK. You have some numbers that 'appear' to show a correlation. I'll give you that for now. But...

How do you explain the correlation?
What is the process by which space events influence meteorlogical events??

[mike18xx]

OK. You have some numbers that 'appear' to show a correlation. I'll give you that for now. But... How do you explain the correlation? What is the process by which space events influence meteorlogical events??

More importantly, what are the proofs? Merely because B happens after A does not mean A caused B.

[donsutherland1]

Jim,

You wrote: I have found that the Atlantic storms and quite possibly other areas...and Northeasters also...seem to form when the solar wind speed is below the 500 km/sec range. They also tend to form while the solar wind is in a diminishing state after the winds had been higher during the previous 24-72 hours. Many storms form within 24 hours after the hourly averages fall to the 500 km/sec range. TS Gert did this most recently. The only time that these variables are not needed, or seen in the below data is when the MeV2 electron fluence is > 0.0E+07 (Above this value)

Only TS Mathew from 2004 does not fit this relationship...

How often do these conditions exist and no tropical cyclones develop? In other words, how common are "false alarms" relative to occasions when such systems develop?