Latest NWS HPC Extended Discussion, invest 92L.

[Stormcenter]

This is the full discussion for the SE U.S. from today

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
143 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

VALID 12Z SUN JUL 31 2005 - 12Z THU AUG 04 2005


SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE PD...
AS FOR THE TROPICAL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE
BAHAMAS...WITH RIDGING BUILDING TO ITS NORTH AHEAD OF THE
EVER-WEAKER TROUGH PROGRESSING THRU CNTRL CAN AND A DVLPG WEAKNESS
IN THE UPR PATTERN IN THE CNTRL/WRN GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY THAT IF THERE WAS AN ORGANIZED TC...THAT IT WOULD
RETROGRADE INTO FL OR THE SOUTHEAST US SOMETIME BETWEEN AUG 3-5.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FL STRAITS
INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z UKMET WAS THE FARTHEST NE...
LEAVING THE SYSTEM JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS. MADE SLIGHT CHANGES IN
THAT DIRECTION FROM CONTINUITY PER COORDINATION W/TPC...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is the full discussion for the SE U.S. from today

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
143 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

VALID 12Z SUN JUL 31 2005 - 12Z THU AUG 04 2005


SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE PD...
AS FOR THE TROPICAL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE
BAHAMAS...WITH RIDGING BUILDING TO ITS NORTH AHEAD OF THE
EVER-WEAKER TROUGH PROGRESSING THRU CNTRL CAN AND A DVLPG WEAKNESS
IN THE UPR PATTERN IN THE CNTRL/WRN GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY THAT IF THERE WAS AN ORGANIZED TC...THAT IT WOULD
RETROGRADE INTO FL OR THE SOUTHEAST US SOMETIME BETWEEN AUG 3-5.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FL STRAITS
INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z UKMET WAS THE FARTHEST NE...
LEAVING THE SYSTEM JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS. MADE SLIGHT CHANGES IN
THAT DIRECTION FROM CONTINUITY PER COORDINATION W/TPC...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF.

Bingo...

[deltadog03]

bump the bingo....i had that sorta thinking in another thread

[Ivanhater]

dang it dang it dang it

[deltadog03]

i think this could be a W tracker into the central gulf at least...

[jasons2k]

Oh dear, it's about that time again.

Time for the stress, late nights, excitement, fear, joy, -removed-, forecasting, name calling and apologies to begin.........

[Ivanhater]

Oh dear, it's about that time again.

Time for the stress, late nights, excitement, fear, joy, -removed-, forecasting, name calling and apologies to begin.........

haaaaa, yes, its almost upon us

[x-y-no]

Yes, I was just looking at the 12Z UKMET ... it stalls the system NE of the Bahamas and intensifies it there. At the end of the forecast period, it looks like the ridge is strengthening again, which suggests it would turn it towards central or northern Florida.

The Canadian is a little quicker and further south with it out to 72 hours - with a much stronger ridge which suggests it wouls steer it across Florida into the Gulf.

GFS and GFDL are a little south of the UKMET, and not as bullish on development.

[Flakeys]

Great, The county just picked up all of my yard stuff from Dennis yesterday!

[jasons2k]

Great, The county just picked up all of my yard stuff from Dennis yesterday!

Hey FlaKeys welcome to the board!!

My father lives on Big Pine so I'll look forward to your reports if you are inclined.

[Canelaw99]

I second the hi FlaKeys, and I add a welcome neighbor I'm just up US1 from ya, right where the Turnpike ends.

[Weatherboy1]

for what it's worth, here's what they had to say:

MON-THU...BERMUDA RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG 30-32N WITH DRYING INDICATED
BY GFS DUE TO BACKING FLOW. SUBSIDENT REGION ASCD WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE BAHAMAS IS ALSO SHOWN DRYING OUT AIRMASS. WILL HAVE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL TC FORMATION E-SE OF THE
BAHAMAS. LATEST RUN OF GFS INDICATES REDEVELOPMENT OF RIDGE ACROSS N
FL FROM TUE ONWARD WHICH WL KEEP WAVE OR CYCLONE ON GENERAL WNW
HEADING THRU THE MIDDLE OF WEEK...WHICH IS WHAT THE ECM HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING ALL ALONG. STAY TUNED.

I think the key here is what exactly develops. The globals don't show much of a system ... more of a strong wave until late in the period. Right now, the wave appears to be consolidating, but there still is obviously no LLC with convection centered around it. Once we have a system, we can decide who's going to be impacted by it. Right now, we're just looking at more rain here in the FL peninsula, so I wouldn't worry too much just yet.

[Flakeys]

I love Rositas!! Thanks for the welcome.


Stan in the Keys

[Storm Tracker]

I second the hi FlaKeys, and I add a welcome neighbor I'm just up US1 from ya, right where the Turnpike ends.

[BonesXL]

Welome Flakeys, I ma also right up the street from you...Rositas is the "Best" mexican food..

[Canelaw99]

Welome Flakeys, I ma also right up the street from you...Rositas is the "Best" mexican food..

Haven't tried Rositas, although I do love El Toro Taco....any place with great Mexican food where you can bring your own alcoholic drinks is A-1 in my book

[HouTXmetro]

Oh dear, it's about that time again.

Time for the stress, late nights, excitement, fear, joy, -removed-, forecasting, name calling and apologies to begin.........

Cat 3 into the upper TX coast

* [img]http://www.showtimemag.com/forum/style_emoticons/default/15_8_11[1].gif[/img]

[yoda]

Oh dear, it's about that time again.

Time for the stress, late nights, excitement, fear, joy, -removed-, forecasting, name calling and apologies to begin.........

Cat 3 into the upper TX coast

* [img]http://www.showtimemag.com/forum/style_emoticons/default/15_8_11[1].gif[/img]

That cracks me up HouTX... thanks.

[HouTXmetro]

Oh dear, it's about that time again.

Time for the stress, late nights, excitement, fear, joy, -removed-, forecasting, name calling and apologies to begin.........

Cat 3 into the upper TX coast

* [img]http://www.showtimemag.com/forum/style_emoticons/default/15_8_11[1].gif[/img]

That cracks me up HouTX... thanks.

lol, your welcome

[robag]

Hi people from Tavernier and Homestead! They just picked up my yard waste in Key Largo two days ago from Dennis the Menace. By the way, the food at all the Mexican restaurants on Krome is great,.