Post conditions in PR,Culebra,Vieques,VI,St Marteen

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 3:48 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
411 PM AST THU JUL 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...

A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 17 NORTH AND 56 WEST CONTINUES TO THE WEST NORTH WEST. BASED ON
ITS CURRENT MOTION AND THE FORECAST FROM THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE MAY BE NEAR 20 NORTH AND 65 WEST IN 48 HOURS
OR SLIGHTLY LESS. SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS AND WILL
SLOWLY START TO APPROACH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY ON FRIDAY.
LATER ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A TUTT SEGMENT MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 25 NORTH AND 60 WEST ON FRIDAY
AND BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT MAY NOT BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...BUT ITS PROGRESS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. AN ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A
SLOW STEADY INCREASE IN THE SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE MORNING QUICKSCAT PASS WAS IN AN EXCELLENT
POSITION TO CAPTURE THE APPARENT WIND SURGE.

For those fellow members who live in Puerto Rico,Culebra,Vieques,The US and BVI and the northern Leewards this is what NWS San Juan see things evolve for us in the next 24-36 hours.

#2 Postby **msbee** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 3:52 pm

as they say,a tricky forecast.
we could get some weather from this and we could not.
I will say that the wind has picked up quite a bit here today compared to yesterday.
so we will watch.

Janice · #3 Postby **Janice** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 4:04 pm

Thanks so much, I will be watching it closely.

TheBurn · #4 Postby **TheBurn** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 4:08 pm

When do you expect the swell to start building up, cycloneye?

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 4:12 pm

TheBurn wrote:When do you expect the swell to start building up, cycloneye?

First of all welcome to storm2k and enjoy it here.

About the seas here is the coastal forecast:

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 PM AST THU JUL 28 2005

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS

AMZ700-290300-
SYNOPSIS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS
430 PM AST THU JUL 28 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 56 WEST
WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT TWENTY FOUR
HOURS. WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS EARLY FRIDAY...AND THEN SPREAD
WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE
OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE....

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION...

.TONIGHT...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 13 TO 19 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.
HAZE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS 11 TO 18 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET. HAZE IN
THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE DAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 13 TO 19 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST 8 TO 14 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 5 FEET. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 12 KNOTS. SEAS 5 FEET.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS

TheBurn · #6 Postby **TheBurn** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 4:19 pm

Thanks for the info as well as the welcome.

I've been lurking for a few days. You guys do an incredible job here!

Great stuff! 8-)

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 4:48 pm

TheBurn wrote:Thanks for the info as well as the welcome.

I've been lurking for a few days. You guys do an incredible job here!

Great stuff!

Thank you for those words.

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 4:55 pm

The original Low Level center is almost due east of Guadeloupe and Antigua moving westward in that area of convection more smaller than the more east convection area.

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:28 pm

Janice wrote:Thanks so much, I will be watching it closely.

Yes let's see what happens in terms of the effects in the northern islands.

#10 Postby **msbee** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:40 pm

we are already getting a lot of wind and squalls.
nothing heavy or serious though

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:43 pm

msbee wrote:we are already getting a lot of wind and squalls.
nothing heavy or serious though

Those squalls are showing up at long range radar.Outer bands from 92L are already moving thru the northern islands.

caribepr · #12 Postby **caribepr** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:47 pm

We had one big squall this afternoon - huge clap of thunder - heavy rain for a little while, then drizzle and then wet air through the haze. Now we're just getting gusts of wind but THANKFULLY it's cooled off a bit from sheer heatheatheat. Everyone here is hoping for SOME rain for a break from the high temps, but afraid to even say it very loudly, since we know what happens when we complain!

#13 Postby **bvigal** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 8:10 pm

From both satellite and radar, it looks like the showers we are seeing in the area (and a few thunderstorms) are pushing in here from the NE. The tropical water vapor loop shows this. And also shows the 1026mb high to our north, indicated on latest surface map

Anyway, I sure will watch 92L closely.

Thanks, Luis, for posting the local discussion! :clap:

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#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 10:10 pm

It looks like the battle for a dominating center is being dominated by the low center more south than the convection more to the east.If that low center dominates then it will cause more squally weather in the northern islands so fellow members who are in those islands (Puerto Rico,Culebra,Vieques,US and BVI and the northern leewards) keep an eye on this system.

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 5:20 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST FRI JUL 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...WITH LLVL LOW CENTER NEAR 17.5N 61W AT 5
AM... MOVING W AROUND 15 MPH...AND WILL SPREAD ACTIVE WEATHER AND
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PASS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...LLVL LOW LOOKS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING DUE WEST PAST 24
HOURS...AND IS TRAILING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING W AND
PASSING JUST S OF P.R. ATTM. THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO PULL THE WAVE
VORTEX A BIT MORE WEST THAN FORECAST...AND ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND E AND NE SECTIONS OF P.R. LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTY NE
WINDS WILL OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN SQUALLS AND TSTORMS. THEN
WITH THE MAIN LOW OR WAVE VORTEX MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING AND THEN THE LOCAL ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WITH A S TO SE LLVL
FLOW BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE WAVE. THIS WILL PULL TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH IT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW AND RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED NEAR AS INTENSE
AS POSSIBLE WITH AND AHEAD OF THE WAVE.

Hey fellow islanders this will passs over us so be prepared for heavy rains in squalls today and tommorow as the surface low is tracking more west than forecasted.

From now on let's post here what are your conditions where you are,Puerto Rico,Culebra,Vieques,US and BVI and ST Marteen.

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 5:24 am

In Puerto Rico things are tranquil this morning with fair skies with a brezze from the NE.This is the sinking air in front of the low developing.But the weather will go downhill later today here.

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST FRI JUL 29 2005

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS

AMZ700-291500-
SYNOPSIS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS
430 AM AST FRI JUL 29 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WAS MOVING INTO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST...MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. A NORTHEAST WIND SURGE
ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WESTWARD
INTO THE LOCAL OFF SHORE ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO BETTER
ORGANIZE THIS MORNING...AND WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5 NORTH 61 WEST.
THIS LOW ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TODAY AND THEN CROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING TROPICAL WAVE WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

Above is the coastal waters forecast.

schmita · #17 Postby **schmita** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 6:13 am

Hi all,
Here in Sint Maarten this morning we are having partly cloudy skies, a bit of haze.
Rain gauge reports about 1/2 inch overnight.
Let's see what the day brings.

irina

mf_dolphin · #18 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 6:19 am

Everyone stay safe down in the islands and keep us posted! :-)

caribepr · #19 Postby **caribepr** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 6:31 am

We're in the paradise mode at the moment...a few light clouds, a few mild gusts but barely a breeze, and not horribly hot.

mf_dolphin · #20 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 6:35 am

Can you send some of that north? ;-)

Post conditions in PR,Culebra,Vieques,VI,St Marteen

Post conditions in PR,Culebra,Vieques,VI,St Marteen

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