92L Invest

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looking at the infared loop, looks better organized with increasing outflow boundary to SW. Almost looks like center is closer to 20N??? I'll say a TS by the time recon flight reports. Even money anyway. Shear will be there but not enough to impede steady development.

[cycloneye]

212
ABNT20 KNHC 290231
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX
NOVA SCOTIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Note:The TWO for 93L is posted at the 93L thread.

[Brent]

was the recon flight cancelled or why does everybody keep saying its cancelled

It won't be cancelled(if it is) until late morning tomorrow right before it's time to leave.

[Swimdude]

Yeah that's a pretty good looking wave...

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG A LINE FROM 23N56W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 16N58W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 8N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ARE REACHING SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM GUADELOUPE NEAR 16N TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA NEAR 18N BETWEEN 60W AND THE ISLANDS. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 56 AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 53W AND 54W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 46W AND 56W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE...FROM
17N59W TO 25N46W. AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG THE LINE FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N38W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N62W TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE WAVE IS MISSING A LOT OF THE SHEARING WINDS WHICH IT MAY BE ENCOUNTERING IF IT WERE CLOSER TO THIS TROUGH. AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

[ConvergenceZone]

This seems to have lost a bit of convection. We'll see if it blows back up tomorrow.

Oh by the way, I'm new, just wanted to say hi to everyone

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

40 knot shear to the north is shearing the living H#!! out of the convection that is trying to form over the LLC. It is on the edge of being distroyed.

Shear is increasing at 20 to 30 knots over the system.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050729 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050729 0600 050729 1800 050730 0600 050730 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 17.5N 60.8W 18.3N 62.8W 19.4N 64.7W 20.9N 66.4W

BAMM 17.5N 60.8W 18.2N 63.2W 19.0N 65.3W 20.2N 67.2W

A98E 17.5N 60.8W 18.4N 64.6W 19.1N 67.6W 19.7N 70.2W

LBAR 17.5N 60.8W 18.5N 63.9W 19.6N 66.6W 20.9N 68.9W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050731 0600 050801 0600 050802 0600 050803 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 22.4N 67.8W 24.5N 69.6W 25.9N 70.7W 27.4N 71.2W

BAMM 21.3N 68.6W 22.7N 70.3W 23.1N 71.7W 23.4N 73.3W

A98E 20.5N 72.2W 22.1N 75.7W 23.9N 78.3W 26.3N 79.7W

LBAR 22.1N 71.1W 24.3N 74.1W 25.9N 76.2W 27.1N 77.4W

SHIP 50KTS 58KTS 65KTS 72KTS

DSHP 50KTS 58KTS 65KTS 72KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 60.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 16.8N LONM12 = 56.7W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 52.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....




Some of those models are very interesting this morning. I don't think with the shear this system has the chance to become any more then a tropical storm.

[Anonymous]

You can not forget that the shear is going to decrease, and conditions will become very favorable.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes I will likely be eating crow for that. The LLC is becoming very well defined over the northern Leewards. Convection is poping.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The satellite I'm looking appears to show a well defined LLC with bursting convection over it. The inflow is becoming more enhanced. I will eat crow for this. Maybe 2 crows at once.

[elysium]

This is my first post after having lurked around here for a while. Couldn't help noticing the increased convection around the Northern Leeward Islands. If I'm not mistaken, 92L appears to be positioned a little further to the east than had been earlier this evening. Actually, it may be entering a more favorable area for development judging by the hint of spiral banding beginning to take shape, as well as the deepening convection.

Well, just thought I'd fiinally post one. Storm looks in pretty good shape.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree it appears to be coming together quick.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

To the northeast of the center there is obs/reports of 16 mph out of the northeast. There is a station for a short time that the system passed just north showed a southwest wind. A ob even more south of that is showing southeast.

3 AM (7) Jul 29 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) SW 2 thunder

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

23 mph one minute winds out of Blackburne / Plymouth, Antigua and Barbuda. That supports it as 25 mph at least.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The center is northwest of here.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TAPA.html

Pressure 1012 millibars with southeast winds meaning the winds are blowing around a area of low pressure.

Just about 80 miles to the northeast the winds are coming out from the northeast. With pressure obs going from 1016 millibars to 1012 millibars with in a short distance. We got something.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They see what I'm seeing!!!

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290931
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA
SCOTIA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT... WITH SLOWLY FALLING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE... AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM TODAY OR ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED... AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

[elysium]

It looks as though we will have a named storm by this P.M. From what I was able to gather, by Monday a ridge will be building in over the system's top as it nears the south central Bahamas. Is there any possibility of a trough entering into the picture that may turn the system more northerly, or will the ridge prevent recurvature? Some of the models seem to suggest a weakness in the ridge early Monday before the ridge builds back in. It appears as though a ridge north of the system would also support a stronger system.

[elysium]

Look at it now!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the obs the center is most likely very small. The station that shows 1012 millibars must be very close to the center. Just about 80 miles to the northeast the pressure is 1016 millibars. The station just southeast of the LLC is showing a southeast wind around the low pressure. While a station just to the south shown a "west wind".

By this information the recon might find a small depression later today. The system is getting better oreganized by the minute.